Does America and Iran's mutual mistrust mean war is inevitable?

[Tank]

Does America and Iran's mutual mistrust mean war is inevitable?

What would be the consequences of an Israeli or American military strike on Iran and could the conflict yet be avoided, asks Radio 4 Analysis presenter Edward Stourton.

In late 2004, in an atmosphere of frenzied speculation about war with Iran, Jack Straw - then Britain's Foreign Secretary - told the BBC that military action was "inconceivable."

"If I'd not done so, in my view we would have been involved in a firestorm inside the Labour government."

For the United States and Britain had recently invaded Iraq.
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Jack Straw

    It could lead to a major realignment in international relations of a kind that we have not seen up to now"

Jack Straw Former British Foreign Secretary

"It was impossible for any British government, but particularly a Labour government given what had happened in Iraq, to contemplate or have any dalliance with the idea of military action in Iran," he now recalls.

"I very consciously decided to close that issue down."

Today - with near civil war in Syria and the Middle East arguably more unstable than ever - military action is very much back on the agenda because of the belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran is closer to getting the bomb.

Now even Jack Straw thinks Western military action is possible - so much so, indeed, that he is issuing dire warnings against it.

"It could lead to a major realignment in international relations of a kind that we have not seen up to now," he says.

"You'd get huge divisions in the international community between the US and maybe the United Kingdom, on the one hand; other European countries somewhere in the middle; Russia and China, Brazil, India on the other." ...

The article goes on the mention that Iranian enrichment and potential weapon construction sites will be so well protected and dispersed by the end of 2012 that an effective pre-emptive strike will be impossible. That puts an interesting time frame on the situation.

I can't imagine the Israelis feel particularly comfortable at the moment what with Egypt heading to the creation of a fundamentalist Islamic state.

Watch this space.

[fester30]

I really hope we don't end up at war with Iran.  We've been at constant war for over a decade now.  That puts an unbelievable strain on personnel (as you can see with increased suicides, homicides, mental illness, divorces, etc.) and equipment.  These tanks, trucks, aircraft, forklifts, and others were designed to withstand so many hours of operation.  Constant operation brings this equipment closer to it's expected service life much more quickly.

[Asmodean]

For pity's sake!

Give Iran the bomb, ask for pie in return. Eat pie together while discussing ways of making oil cheaper. The bearded guy comes out pleased and well-armed and the rest of us don't have to spend more than we earn on petrol. 

[ThinkAnarchy]

I think it's probable. Iran doesn't seem to want war, but the U.S. seems to.

I also see no reason to impede on their progress in constructing a nuclear weapon. Our most basic drive is self-preservation which is likely the reason they want to have a bomb in the first place. Self-preservation would also likely prevent them from ever using it.

There has been increased propaganda regarding Iran coming from both the pro and anti-war sides, which makes me think a lot of people are seeing similar signs.

Another reason I think it's likely, is because the media would greatly benefit. The Iraq invasion got large amounts of viewers and a full-scale invasion of Iran would arguably be even more impressive and sadistically entertaining.

Hopefully I'm wrong, because if China came to Iran's defense... Perhaps I should start learning some Mandarin just case.

The Intrade markets make my mind feel a bit more at ease, seeing as the probability is still under 50%. It's a surprisingly accurate predictions market. There is currently a 37% chance of war this year.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750356

[Ali]

I also see no reason to impede on their progress in constructing a nuclear weapon. Our most basic drive is self-preservation which is likely the reason they want to have a bomb in the first place. Self-preservation would also likely prevent them from ever using it.

I agree with this.  I honestly don't see why the US gets to tell other nations that they can't develop nuclear weapons when we have about a gazillion of them.  Although frankly I would love for all of us to take the NZ approach and go completely non-nuclear.  But if we (and selected other countries) are going to keep them around, I don't see where we get off telling other countries they can't.

[Sweetdeath]

The sooner I get out of this country, the better. It is so sad that the U.S cant ever have a peaceful discussion with anoth er country. Their pride has doomed their economy and people. The military are just pawns and rooks anyway for the higher ups.

[fester30]

I also see no reason to impede on their progress in constructing a nuclear weapon. Our most basic drive is self-preservation which is likely the reason they want to have a bomb in the first place. Self-preservation would also likely prevent them from ever using it.

I agree with this.  I honestly don't see why the US gets to tell other nations that they can't develop nuclear weapons when we have about a gazillion of them.  Although frankly I would love for all of us to take the NZ approach and go completely non-nuclear.  But if we (and selected other countries) are going to keep them around, I don't see where we get off telling other countries they can't.

Let's also not forget that there is only one country that's ever actually used them against a population... and we did it twice.

[hismikeness]

Of course war with Iran is inevitable.

On the other hand, have you seen these gas prices? Let's distract the population with that, during an election year, and let the war machine ramble on.

[Tank]

So far no two nuclear powers have ever gone to war. I suspect that if Iran tests a nuclear weapon Israel will react thus that puts a lot of pressure on Iran to make Israel their test site. ATM the moment Israeli nuclear weapons are one of the worst kept secrets on Earth. They are in a difficult situation that to use nukes as a deterrent one must first confess to owning them.

[xSilverPhinx]

I've been following this story just superficially, but it seems that the pressure is coming from Israel to take military action if needed, moreso than from the US or other Western countries. By the look of things, they're going to try diplomatic pressures and sanctions first, though seriously, if you cut the credit line to a sovereign nation, that is a declaration of war.

It's my belief that Iran can't be stopped from ultimately getting nukes if that's what they're going for. They can be delayed, but not stopped. IMO it's also highly unlikely that a regime change will lessen the drive to get nukes, because they're trying to balance out Israel in the region.

I also think that the region might actually become safer and more peaceful if Iran gets their bombs.

[Asmodean]

I also think that the region might actually become safer and more peaceful if Iran gets their bombs.

And I think that if we continue along these lines, HAF might be un-censored in Iran, blasphemous dogs or no 

[Guardian85]

If the US actually goes to war in Iran it is important to point out that Iran is a larger country then both Iraq and Afghanistan combined. If we assume that the US are out of Iraq for good, an invasion in Iran would still triple the territory US troops would have to keep secure in the region. I am not sure a lot of americans realise that.

[Tank]

...

I also think that the region might actually become safer and more peaceful if Iran gets their bombs.

So far no two nuclear powers have gone to war. The most prominent example being India in Pakistan who have been notably better neighbours since they have both acquired nuclear arms. That being said, the most worrying aspect of Iran getting nuclear weapons is the anti-Israeli rhetoric that has been coming out of Tehran. I get the feeling that there are a limited number of fanatics in the power structure of Iran that would attack Israel if they could, irrespective of the outcome. But is my understanding simply the result of Western propaganda intended to create an environment that would allow a pre-emptive attack and/or invasion?

[Tank]

http://www.facebook.com/LoveAndPeaceCampaign/info

Love and Peace Campaign
Description
☻Who we are?
We are a group of independent Israeli-Iranian social activists.
We don't belong to any political party or ideology.
Our only ideology is humanity and our aim is peace.
This page is based on Pushpin Mehina's peace campaign.

☻What's our goal?
We want to take this opportunity to exchange love between people.
We invite and encourage every peaceful heart to join this campaign,
to spread the words of love and unity against any hatred and war.

☻How you can collaborate?
If you have basic software skills, you can download the appropriate slogan form slogan's album and put it on your photo.
You can also send us your photo and we can do it for you.
You can cover your face or ask us to do so.

Love and Peace for all!

[Asmodean]

Love and unity? Screw it! The Asmo is getting himself one of those Faebooks in order to spread the opposite.