Iran: EU oil sanctions 'unfair' and 'doomed to fail'

[Tank]

Iran: EU oil sanctions 'unfair' and 'doomed to fail'

Quite a detailed article on a situation that has the potential to turn hot.

It'll be 'interesting times' if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz!

[Ecurb Noselrub]

This whole thing is really heating up. Israel may take action at any time, and who knows what Iran will do.  Israel is already assassinating their nuclear scientists, and is at odds with Obama on how to deal with Iran.  Very volatile. 

[Crow]

It consistently seems like the western governments want a war with Iran and is using playground bully tactics, pushing, prodding, and name calling hoping Iran will strike out in anger so they can beat the shit out of them. Though there are many reasons to go to war with Iran none are legal, its obvious that the governments are trying to make Iran make the first aggressive move so they have legal cause before Iran can create a strong enough military threat which must be growing for actions to be pushed so hard. Don't forget it was the same tactic used by the States which caused Japan to attack Pearl Harbor therefore help create a backing from the American people for a war that previously nobody wanted.

[OldGit]

Sadly, there seems to be a lot of truth in Crow's interpretation.  However some factions of the Iranian leadership seem pretty damn dangerous with or without provocation.  I think some elements are quite mad enough to nuke Israel, regardless of consequences.

[Asmodean]

Can't Iran happily sell all their oil and more besides to China?

It's bloody oil! How hard can it be to find a buyer if the old buyer turns asshole on you?

[Crow]

Can't Iran happily sell all their oil and more besides to China?

It's bloody oil! How hard can it be to find a buyer if the old buyer turns asshole on you?

Depends even though China haven't issued any sanctions on Iran they have been quite vocal about the Iranian nuclear development and that they see it as a possible threat. From the words expressed by the Chinese politicians it seems to me like they will take a neutral route and keep business as normal. If you also look at the other main buyers of Oil from Iran all those countries (except for China) the west will be able to put pressure on them not to buy or at least reduce the amount they do buy.

[Tank]

Can't Iran happily sell all their oil and more besides to China?

It's bloody oil! How hard can it be to find a buyer if the old buyer turns asshole on you?

Depends even though China haven't issued any sanctions on Iran they have been quite vocal about the Iranian nuclear development and that they see it as a possible threat. From the words expressed by the Chinese politicians it seems to me like they will take a neutral route and keep business as normal. If you also look at the other main buyers of Oil from Iran all those countries (except for China) the west will be able to put pressure on them not to buy or at least reduce the amount they do buy.

Thing is Irainian oil will be cheaper as they try to sell the lost european consumption so that could bea confounding variable.

[Guardian85]

Either way, I think it very unlikely that we will see a land war in Iran anytime soon. If it comes to blows it will most likely be a naval and air conflict with a side of spec ops.
The power of the USAF and USN thrown against Iran to force them to change their policy. Still not good, but way better then US boots on the ground in an arab country again.

[Tank]

Either way, I think it very unlikely that we will see a land war in Iran anytime soon. If it comes to blows it will most likely be a naval and air conflict with a side of spec ops.
The power of the USAF and USN thrown against Iran to force them to change their policy. Still not good, but way better then US boots on the ground in an arab country again.

I agree completly. We won't see US troops on the ground in the middle east until Egypt invades Israel in 2014. Remeber, you read it here first.

[Tom62]

Great, petrol prices will go up to astronomical heights and we have to help Greece again with billions of Euro's because most of their oil comes from Iran. I doubt that any ordinary EU civilian would be in favour of these sanctions.

[Asmodean]

You think they really are stupid enough to invade Iran..?

Leave them the fuck alone, I say. We can bitch and moan about their internal affairs all we like, but they are their internal affairs to deal with.

EDIT: Oh, and what Tom said. Spreading democracy and good will towards mankind is just not worth the extra coin spent at the pump.

[Crow]

You think they really are stupid enough to invade Iran..?

Yeah and wouldn't be surprised at the stupidity of their actions, well if history is anything to go by anyway.

I do agree with you when you say "leave them the fuck alone" I really can't stand the exporting democracy through war bollocks.

Thing is Irainian oil will be cheaper as they try to sell the lost european consumption so that could bea confounding variable.

That could be true as Iran have stated they made plans "a long time ago" to sidestep such sanctions. However there is 6 months before the sanctions come into play so anything could happen within that time frame.

[Too Few Lions]

Any extra pressure that can be placed on the Iranian regime has to be a good thing. The Iranian regime has a Dark Age mentality, and the thought of them developing nuclear weapons is a very scary thought indeed.

I have to disagree with the idea that the west are provoking or bullying Iran and itching for a war. I don't think the US, UK or other western countries can afford another war right now. Iran wants nuclear weapons, and that's a worry for the security of everyone, this is a country that executes homosexuals and apostates from Islam, and doesn't allow non-Muslims full citizenship or any rights. And the current regime's hatred of Israel is well known, they don't even recognise Israel as existing as a country.

If Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions I think things will calm down, but we've also got to remember this is an autocratic draconian regime that oppresses its own population. We've seen a fair amount of public dissent in Iran over the past few years, particularly after the last 'election', and it has been brutally suppressed with many dissidents jailed and executed by the state. There's also been public displays of dissent during the Arab Spring, but again it has been brutally suppressed. I think many in Iran would welcome some help from the west to topple a very nasty regime, just as they did in Libya, and would in Syria.

But I think the main issue is our reliance on oil. It props up horrendous regimes in countries like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia (just like it did in Libya and Iraq), and also funds the export of extreme versions of Islam by countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran. The sooner we find a viable alternative to oil to fuel our economies the better.