The sustainability of transhumanism

[Tank]

The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Re the underlined. Two words, Easter Island. We didn't change our minds then as we cut down the last tree and worshipped false Gods.

That's just a theory though. It's possible they were conquered by the Spanish.

This discussion about not acting until it's almost too late makes me think of that bad remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still.

Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

[radicalaggrivation]

I don't know if transhumans would place more demand on the earth.
I'm more concerned about current humans keeping the Earth hospitable.
Human population has troubled me since I was a kid.

I could never condemn China for its one child policy.
What were they supposed to do, breed and let hunger and disease do the dirty work?
There were no unguarded continents left to take their overflow.

People tell us we will benefit from higher population, I don't believe them.
In some cities pollution was in some ways reduced, but with rapid growth they are again getting worse.
Pro growth advocates point to India, and say our population is nothing, well India is my idea of hell.

Ratzinger no doubt looks at things differently, but I see a world with more people and no orangutans as incredibly sad.

When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

[The Magic Pudding]

When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

[radicalaggrivation]

When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

Well a lot of these things are not wishful thinking at all. They are real applications for technology that we have today. Much of this is inevitable. I never said that this would solve all of our problems. Trans-humanism will present increasingly difficult problems. There are just some issues that our leap in technology will resolve. For example, we will be able to overcome the diseases that have plagued us since we stood upright but we also will be susceptible to human engineered diseases. Imagine if a terrorist group engineered a flu virus that was immune to current vaccines. Millions could die before the proper counteraction was formed. Also keep in mind that the developed world will be reaping the benefits of all of these advances, while much of the undeveloped world will remain the same. There will be people immune to most natural disease living in the same country as people with vitamin A deficiencies. The wealth gap could increase or we could create a whole new class of people to rule the weak. Much of this could be avoided but with improper motivation this is very possible. There is also the threat of information. When we migrate everything onto the internet it would be possible to learn anything. You could learn how to build a nuclear bomb (which has happened before with shocking accuracy) or how to disrupt infrastructure. Trans-humanism will be defined by how we utilize information and there are equal benefits and dangers to how we use it. So the future I speak of will not be perfect by any stretch of the imagination. We will face more extreme danger than the human race ever has. But the risk is worth the rewards. I agree with you, that there is still much suffering to go around. I do not believe this will be a result of trans-humanism, however. I think this will happen because of a lack of action by those will all the technology and information. That still will not stop the inevitable pace of our technology. Another big question that is scary to think about is- what happens when our technology outpaces us? What happens when our AI becomes smarter than us? What happens when our technology makes us obsolete? It would be like terminator.

[Ultima22689]

When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

Well a lot of these things are not wishful thinking at all. They are real applications for technology that we have today. Much of this is inevitable. I never said that this would solve all of our problems. Trans-humanism will present increasingly difficult problems. There are just some issues that our leap in technology will resolve. For example, we will be able to overcome the diseases that have plagued us since we stood upright but we also will be susceptible to human engineered diseases. Imagine if a terrorist group engineered a flu virus that was immune to current vaccines. Millions could die before the proper counteraction was formed. Also keep in mind that the developed world will be reaping the benefits of all of these advances, while much of the undeveloped world will remain the same. There will be people immune to most natural disease living in the same country as people with vitamin A deficiencies. The wealth gap could increase or we could create a whole new class of people to rule the weak. Much of this could be avoided but with improper motivation this is very possible. There is also the threat of information. When we migrate everything onto the internet it would be possible to learn anything. You could learn how to build a nuclear bomb (which has happened before with shocking accuracy) or how to disrupt infrastructure. Trans-humanism will be defined by how we utilize information and there are equal benefits and dangers to how we use it. So the future I speak of will not be perfect by any stretch of the imagination. We will face more extreme danger than the human race ever has. But the risk is worth the rewards. I agree with you, that there is still much suffering to go around. I do not believe this will be a result of trans-humanism, however. I think this will happen because of a lack of action by those will all the technology and information. That still will not stop the inevitable pace of our technology. Another big question that is scary to think about is- what happens when our technology outpaces us? What happens when our AI becomes smarter than us? What happens when our technology makes us obsolete? It would be like terminator.

I was in 100% agreement until you said Terminator. Why would AI simply assume that all humanity must die? I think by the time we have true AI man will be nearly indistinguishable from the machines themselves. Aside from just augmenting our biology with nanotechnology I believe many, including myself will also move towards integrating the technology into our biology by literally building us from the inside out with non biological components. We'll be millions of times more intelligent, the machines will be brilliant but the gap won't be so big as it would be now.

[Sophus]

Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

From what I know it's quite possible the Spanish took them into the slave trade. We'll probably never confirm a theory either way but, it's fun to think about. I love the idea of having the tree chopping metaphor but I kind of doubt its validity.

[Tank]

Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

From what I know it's quite possible the Spanish took them into the slave trade. We'll probably never confirm a theory either way but, it's fun to think about. I love the idea of having the tree chopping metaphor but I kind of doubt its validity.

A most interesting article  

[The Magic Pudding]

From that article they date the statue building at A.D. 1000-1100.
Isn't the legendary population crash supposed to date back to this time, long before the Spanish appeared?
A well populated island of Polynesians would put a good fight, New Zealand was no walk over.
I think the the depredations of various visitors was only possible because the population had already crashed, though divide and conquer is always possible.

[Ultima22689]

So, any other transhumanist on the boards? What do you guys think of it? I'd like to about it as I identify as one however I can't really say i've met any other transhumanists, when you talk to people about it they'r all like "WTF? NAH THAT AIN'T REAL!" Then i'm all like " look at this article" and they're all like "OH SNAP SON! THAT SHIT IS SCARY FOR REAL!!" So, i'm asking the denizens of one of my favorite forums as the average IQ is probably at least 110 as far as I can tell from the year and some months i've been here, can't believe it's really been that long. XD

In case you don't have a clue what it is, here is a wiki link!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism

[Dretlin]

I do hold some transhumanist values.    

I do however think most problems can be solved without going too far down the transhumanism path. I think Transhumanism can only really work in a stable society - and what is meant by stable could very well be debatable.

[LegendarySandwich]

After reading the first paragraph of the Wikipedia article, I would now say that I am a transhumanist.

[McQ]

So, any other transhumanist on the boards? What do you guys think of it? I'd like to about it as I identify as one however I can't really say i've met any other transhumanists, when you talk to people about it they'r all like "WTF? NAH THAT AIN'T REAL!" Then i'm all like " look at this article" and they're all like "OH SNAP SON! THAT SHIT IS SCARY FOR REAL!!" So, i'm asking the denizens of one of my favorite forums as the average IQ is probably at least 110 as far as I can tell from the year and some months i've been here, can't believe it's really been that long. XD

In case you don't have a clue what it is, here is a wiki link!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism

MERGED TOPIC WITH OTHER TRANSHUMANIST TOPIC, AS THERE ARE MANY THREADS ON THE SUBJECT ALREADY.

[Wilson]

I suppose the thrust of this thread is that humanism will lead to dramatic life extension of the human species, and the world population will grow rapidly, and we'll run out of food.

I say, let's worry about stuff that's likely to happen.  Life extension is pie in the sky.  It could happen, but there are no guarantees, at least for the foreseeable future.  Homo sapiens appears to have an absolute maximum life span of around 110 years, and that is thought to be related to the telomeres that are found at the end of each of our chromosomes.  Those telomeres protect the chromosomes from deterioration, and get shorter as we age.  So to increase the absolute life span limit, people have tried medication to lengthen those telomeres.  But the side effect was increased risk of cancer.

The one technique which might actually increase the maximum life span is significantly reduced calorie intake over one's lifetime.  That works dramatically in rats.  Look around and see how likely that's going to catch on.

I suspect that scientific methods of creating food out of available raw materials will occur before life extension does.

Of course some true life extension method may be discovered in the future.  At that point humans will adjust, as they always have.

[Ultima22689]

I suppose the thrust of this thread is that humanism will lead to dramatic life extension of the human species, and the world population will grow rapidly, and we'll run out of food.

I say, let's worry about stuff that's likely to happen.  Life extension is pie in the sky.  It could happen, but there are no guarantees, at least for the foreseeable future.  Homo sapiens appears to have an absolute maximum life span of around 110 years, and that is thought to be related to the telomeres that are found at the end of each of our chromosomes.  Those telomeres protect the chromosomes from deterioration, and get shorter as we age.  So to increase the absolute life span limit, people have tried medication to lengthen those telomeres.  But the side effect was increased risk of cancer.

The one technique which might actually increase the maximum life span is significantly reduced calorie intake over one's lifetime.  That works dramatically in rats.  Look around and see how likely that's going to catch on.

I suspect that scientific methods of creating food out of available raw materials will occur before life extension does.

Of course some true life extension method may be discovered in the future.  At that point humans will adjust, as they always have.

did you know that America produces and throws away more food than it consumes? Guess what's even more amazing? That number is growing. This talk of the food supply dwindling is not quite true I think. Food won't be a problem and not just because of a growing supply, aside from finding ways to produce far more food at lower costs than ever before, transhumanism isn't only about extending the life span. An extended life span will not come from some fountain of youth for the biological.  When I think of an extended life span it's because the human body has just become another IT. One will simpy replace organs with synthetic ones, one may rid oneself of the biology altogether in favor of superior, synthetic body. Cybernetics are beginning to make major strides, several major breakthroughs were made in 2010, I can't even begin to imagine all the scientific breakthroughs and technological advances that 2011 may hold if it's half as good as the stuff i've read about in 2010 then this will be a very good year, naturally I think it will be twice as good as last year.  The circuit that is believed to be capable of employing synpatic logic is set to go commerical in less than 2 years. DARPA and several other organizations are already planning on building supercomputers from said circuit, hopefully the blue brain project get one once they get them up and running. Life extension is a given in the next three decades and is only the tip of the iceberg.

[Wilson]

Simply replace organs with synthetic ones?  You mean, like an artificial brain?  Unless we can keep the brain functional at a reasonable level permanently, replacing other organs won't mean much.  

I think there will be slow improvement in the average human lifespan.  Add a few years with medical advances.  But as I said before, the maximum lifespan is pretty fixed and built into our DNA and not something that can be altered without a major new discovery, which could occur, but I'm skeptical.  Predictions of the future are almost always as wrong as they can be.

And the idea that scientific advances are getting exponentially faster is probably wrong.  In the field of physics, as pointed out in "The Trouble with Physics", a book by Lee Smolin, the last few decades have been the first in the past 200 years that major scientific breakthroughs haven't occurred.  Think about that.  He wrote, "But today, despite our best efforts, what we know for certain about the laws of nature is no more than what we knew back in the 1970's."  What happened was that theoretical physicists became enamored with string theory, which may or may not reflect the underlying basis of all particles and forces, but appears to be unprovable, and seems incapable of making scientific predictions.  All the bright young physicists devoted their careers to string theory, which was the only way to get an academic job, and it's all come to nothing so far.  So let's be a little modest about predicting how science will progress, especially with regard to things as complicated as the human body.