Campbells' Soup anyone?

[LARA]

So it's looks like markets over much of the world have possibly, hopefully finished crunching and without getting into anyone's personal business, I'm hoping all is well with forum members.

Sooooo.  Do you think the recession is overstated or unstated?  Are you nervous?  How are things in your state and country so far?  Are you posting from your wireless connection fed on a solar panel whilst living in a cardboard box yet?  

I have to say everything is status quo here locally, it's kinda hard to go down when you never really went up after all , and I'm just wondering how everyone's cities and countries are doing and if anyone is having any kind of world recession anxiety.

[SSY]

In the uk, I think we are going to get owned. The great tax and spend government we have has inflated our debt to obscene levels, completley mismanaged the economy and bloated the public sector to massive proportions.

Unemployment will definaltey rise, but I doubt anyone is going to starve to death over here. The annoying thing is, we are going to be paying off this tax burden for the rest of forever, the chancellor has no clue what he is doing, he has his head in cloud cuckoo land. He offered a tiny, piddling, inefficent tax cut this year ( while stealth raising taxes, as per normal ), to try and make people spend, but then threatened a massive tax rise next year, scaring people into not spending anything.

I can't wait for the tories to get in.

[Miss Anthrope]

Well, I'm just going to speak from an anecdotal perspective: From my viewpoint, things haven't been that bad, not in a "scream poverty" kind of way. Oh, I hear people whine because they're a little strapped for cash and don't have as much food in their fridge, yet amazingly their DVD collections still grow at a steady pace. I'm relatively non-materialistic, so I've barely noticed a change economically.

I don't doubt that there are people feeling a real grind though, but still: About 10 years ago friends and myself would think nothing of going out a few times a week and spending 20+ bucks a week to eat out, or blowing a hundred bucks to go out bar hopping, or taking half of a paycheck and blowing it at the mall.
I say people use this as an opportunity to really think about the value of money and learn to budget better. Then, when/if things pick up again, they'll be all the better for it. Do you really need those 90 dollar designer jeans, those 120 dollar sneakers, that just-released 70 dollar PS3 game (when it'll be about 20 bucks in a few months)?

So, to be concise, as far as I've seen, Americans (in general) don't really have much basis for crying poverty...not yet, anyway.

[Godless]

Well, I'm just going to speak from an anecdotal perspective: From my viewpoint, things haven't been that bad, not in a "scream poverty" kind of way. Oh, I hear people whine because they're a little strapped for cash and don't have as much food in their fridge, yet amazingly their DVD collections still grow at a steady pace. I'm relatively non-materialistic, so I've barely noticed a change economically.

I don't doubt that there are people feeling a real grind though, but still: About 10 years ago friends and myself would think nothing of going out a few times a week and spending 20+ bucks a week to eat out, or blowing a hundred bucks to go out bar hopping, or taking half of a paycheck and blowing it at the mall.
I say people use this as an opportunity to really think about the value of money and learn to budget better. Then, when/if things pick up again, they'll be all the better for it. Do you really need those 90 dollar designer jeans, those 120 dollar sneakers, that just-released 70 dollar PS3 game (when it'll be about 20 bucks in a few months)?

So, to be concise, as far as I've seen, Americans (in general) don't really have much basis for crying poverty...not yet, anyway.

Speaking of this, I blew most of my money I made last summer (I'm only 18 and in high school right now) to build a new computer and to buy accessories for it. $1600 total for the computer itself, $270 for a new monitor, $56 for my keyboard, $55 for a new pair of gaming headphones, just got a brand new $50 printer today, not to mention over $300 in computer games. I'm such a spend thrift... lol  

[Kylyssa]

I live in Michigan - our unemployment rate is officially something like 10.6% - and likely much higher as people have run out of unemployment benefits and that is what gets counted - people on unemployment.  There's also a lot of underemployed people here, full-timers who've been cut down to part-time.  We had a head start on the recession, our economy has blown for years already.  

We've lost the big box businesses everyone else is losing plus a bunch of local businesses.  The auto industry has taken a crap and it's hitting all of Michigan.  Manufacturers for the car bits and pieces were all over the place and now they've all crashed.  There's been a domino effect.  Steelcase (the furniture manufacturer native to GR) has taken a big hit and shed a lot of employees.  There are stores closed or closing on every street.  

For the US in general, I'm optimistic but I think as dependent on the auto industry as Michigan is its recovery is going to lag behind.  Oh, well, I need to move somewhere warm, anyway.

[Will]

Things can go either way at this point. It's going to depend a great deal on whether people start to question economic dogma instead of just accepting it.

Live below your means, save, and be content with what you've got, at least for now. Once things start to build up again, investing is going to become VERY interesting. I'm thinking of buying 3/4 of Detroit and turning it into a national park.

[Tom62]

I fear that the worse is still to come for us Europeans. There are a lot of discussions going on about regulating the financial industry, but there is no clear idea how to solve the crisis itself. That is the major difference between Europe and the USA, we love to talk a lot, but we don't like to do things. There is no European initiative in place to solve the crisis, so basically every country is on its own. Several European countries have big financial problems , like Spain, Italy and Ireland and many former eastern block states (Poland, Ukraine, etc.) are on the verge of bankruptcy. If those countries would collapse then the shit would really hit the fan.

Here follows an interesting article from the British newspaper "The Telegraph" about the financial crisis in Europe (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... tdown.html)

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point.
 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:05AM GMT 15 Feb 2009

Comments 178 | Comment on this article

If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.

Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a â,¬150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent â,¬230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a "monetary Stalingrad" in the East.

Mr Pröll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany's Peer Steinbrück. Not our problem, he said. We'll see about that.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay â€" or roll over â€" $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.

"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.

In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly â€" by lenders and borrowers â€" it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.

They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

Under a "Taylor Rule" analysis, the European Central Bank already needs to cut rates to zero and then purchase bonds and Pfandbriefe on a huge scale. It is constrained by geopolitics â€" a German-Dutch veto â€" and the Maastricht Treaty.

But I digress. It is East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need â,¬400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.

Europe's governments are making matters worse. Some are pressuring their banks to pull back, undercutting subsidiaries in East Europe. Athens has ordered Greek banks to pull out of the Balkans.

The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan â€" and Turkey next â€" and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (â,¬155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.

Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country â€" facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices â€" is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.

"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.

"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU."

Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4pc in the fourth quarter.

If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9pc before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.

The implications are obvious. Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU "union bonds" should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy's public debt (hitting 112pc of GDP next year, just revised up from 101pc â€" big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism.

So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer.

If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?

[Jolly Sapper]

Well, I'm almost done with my Information Systems degree, so with the downturn in the 'conomy job prospects for something directly related to my major are going to be more difficult to find.  My wife graduated over a year ago and hasn't been able to find full time employment anywhere that doesn't want her to kill things/people or dance around until people stuff cash into her panties.  

Current living situation is as caretakers of my mother in law's property, that my wife has been spending over eight years slowly turning into a small scale organic / naturally produced farm.  Unfortunately with the mother in law having lost both of her jobs as a sales analyst, she is suddenly having to try to get rid of the property.  Problem is, with the markets going down the crapper she probably won't find any buyers for the property.  If she did, the price it would sell for would be lower than what she owes on the mortgage so she would still have problems.  

SO the mother in law is currently spending her retirement money to keep a property that is going to take a while to sell on the market (for a value lower than what the mortgage is) while not being able to find a job herself (and stressing out).  My wife is getting frustrated by having every application / interview wind up with at worst totally being ignored and at best getting a letter telling her that she isn't what the employer was looking for while constantly worrying about losing the farm that she's worked for awhile to build up to the point that it was almost working (and she's stressed).  So both of them stressing out stresses me out (on top of stress from school and being pretty sure that my GIBILL is going to run out before I graduate - which pisses me off.)

Other than that, everything in my neck of the woods is peachy keen.  I've still got a pulse, wife hasn't left me, no worries here.

[karadan]

In the uk, I think we are going to get owned. The great tax and spend government we have has inflated our debt to obscene levels, completley mismanaged the economy and bloated the public sector to massive proportions.

Unemployment will definaltey rise, but I doubt anyone is going to starve to death over here. The annoying thing is, we are going to be paying off this tax burden for the rest of forever, the chancellor has no clue what he is doing, he has his head in cloud cuckoo land. He offered a tiny, piddling, inefficent tax cut this year ( while stealth raising taxes, as per normal ), to try and make people spend, but then threatened a massive tax rise next year, scaring people into not spending anything.

I can't wait for the tories to get in.

Not to mention that colossal prick, Gordon Brown, sold ALL of our gold reserves almost as soon as he came to power. He has crippled us.

[Whitney]

When people start going into a spending frenzy buying up properties for well below their normal value; that's when we'll know the market hit bottom and things are going to turn around.  It hasn't happened yet.  I hope it does soon...I think about half the people I know irl are laid off right now.

[karadan]

When people start going into a spending frenzy buying up properties for well below their normal value; that's when we'll know the market hit bottom and things are going to turn around.  It hasn't happened yet.  I hope it does soon...I think about half the people I know irl are laid off right now.

Half? That is very sobering. I'm one of the lucky ones. I work for the local government. We've been told our positions are safe. Most of the private companies i used to work for have laid off a LOT of people. I'm really glad i changed jobs when i did.

[MommaSquid]

Sooooo.  Do you think the recession is overstated or unstated?  Are you nervous?  How are things in your state and country so far?  Are you posting from your wireless connection fed on a solar panel whilst living in a cardboard box yet?  

Hubby is scheduled to be laid off from DHL on May 29.  After six months of looking for a new job, he finally found one...in the past, it's never taken him longer than six weeks to find a job.  Sadly, there is a huge cut in pay at the new company, but at least it's a full-time job with benefits, and it's located nearby.  He says the job would be great if the pay didn't suck.  

The new company wasn't willing to wait until the end of May for him to start, so he had to decided whether to stay with DHL 'til the bitter end to get the severance pay or to take the new job right away and loose money.  We talked about it and decided that a job with lower pay is better than no job at all.

The Phoenix area has one of the worst hit real estate markets, with home values down about 35%.  We're debating whether to keep our house or walk away.  If we stay, it will be a financial strain due to his loss in income and the fact that the house needs work.  If our 9 year old air conditioner doesn't last the summer, we're screwed.

So, to answer the original questions:
-No, I don't thing the recession is over or overstated.
-Phoenix is one of the worst hit real estate markets in the country.  Area cities, towns and counties are all hurting financially and making budget cuts.  People are losing jobs.
-No solar panels yet (can't afford one!).
-We still have a roof over our heads (for now, and it's a house roof).

Things could be worse, but they sure as hell could be better.  

[Will]

I think I missed the solar question, or rather what question that question implied.

I installed a rain-capturing basin (an old, cleaned out garbage can surrounded by potted plants) under one of my drains, which nearly filled up during the last rain. It doesn't rain often in San Jose, but I figure it can't hurt. It'd be interesting to see what options are out there for serious rain capture, having multiple drains lead to a filtering system and then an underground tank with a solar powered pump, but I don't really have the time to investigate right now.

I'd like to go solar, but it's still a bit expensive. I'm waiting until I can get my whole roof done in solar shingles that will last for 50+ years and that can supply most if not all of my electricity needs, all for a reasonable price. Right now all I can afford is a portion of my roof and even at peak times it would only supply enough electricity for maybe a computer and a TV. Unless it can feed a hungry air conditioning system and refrigerators, it's too little to really seem worth it.

[Bediddle]

Sooooo.  Do you think the recession is overstated or unstated?  Are you nervous?  How are things in your state and country so far?  Are you posting from your wireless connection fed on a solar panel whilst living in a cardboard box yet?  

Hubby is scheduled to be laid off from DHL on May 29.  After six months of looking for a new job, he finally found one...in the past, it's never taken him longer than six weeks to find a job.  Sadly, there is a huge cut in pay at the new company, but at least it's a full-time job with benefits, and it's located nearby.  He says the job would be great if the pay didn't suck.  

The new company wasn't willing to wait until the end of May for him to start, so he had to decided whether to stay with DHL 'til the bitter end to get the severance pay or to take the new job right away and loose money.  We talked about it and decided that a job with lower pay is better than no job at all.

The Phoenix area has one of the worst hit real estate markets, with home values down about 35%.  We're debating whether to keep our house or walk away.  If we stay, it will be a financial strain due to his loss in income and the fact that the house needs work.  If our 9 year old air conditioner doesn't last the summer, we're screwed.

So, to answer the original questions:
-No, I don't thing the recession is over or overstated.
-Phoenix is one of the worst hit real estate markets in the country.  Area cities, towns and counties are all hurting financially and making budget cuts.  People are losing jobs.
-No solar panels yet (can't afford one!).
-We still have a roof over our heads (for now, and it's a house roof).

Things could be worse, but they sure as hell could be better.  

I'm sorry to hear about your problems. I hope everything works out for you in the long run.

[VanReal]

I know a lot of people have been feeling the pinch but I haven't felt it personally and I look around and everything is business as usual.  None of my neighbors have lost their homes and everything seems pretty normal.  Driving in to work everything is hopping from the construction I drive through along East Northwest Highway until I get into the park cities and there are still new homes being built, gardeners in the yards, street construction and of course we are adding additions to our schools with a $72 million bond so there are people working everywhere!  

My vision is a little skewed since the kids from the high school down the street from my office all drive nicer cars than me and until I get back towards home any house that's worth less than $3 million is affectionately referred to as a tear-down.  But, even when I get back to my humble neighborhood and my son drives up in his little neon, everything looks the same, the same people I'm seeing on the road each day, same folks at the grocery, same couples out walking their dogs.  If I didn't hear it on the news or see it on the computer I would not know the difference at all.

Oh, except for the fact that my son's coverdell for college has lost $17,000 over the last 14 months and he is leaving for college in San Fransico in 13 months....wonder if I'll be able to get that back?  Scary....