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Ancestor Paradox

Started by Jose AR, December 08, 2011, 09:15:06 PM

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Pharaoh Cat

Quote from: keithpenrod on December 10, 2011, 03:26:41 PM
Having read the entire thread and being a mathematician, I'm not sure what the question is.  I'd be glad to help out, but I'm not sure what's being asked.  Let me try a couple explanations and see if I can avoid striking out.

I would say you hit a home run!  Thank you! :)
"The Logic Elf rewards anyone who thinks logically."  (Jill)

keithpenrod

Another way to think of it is like this: suppose that you have (for simplicity) a 1% chance of having one ancestor match up with another person's ancestor.  Then you have a 2% chance for one of your parents to match, since you have 2 parents, and 4% for grandparents, and so on.  Thus, 7 generations back you'd be guaranteed to match ancestors with someone else. 

Obviously, it's much more complicated than that, but I hope it helps illustrate the idea.  When you're listing 8 people (great grandparents) you have a small probability of matching one of those 8 with an ancestor from someone else's pedigree.  But when you're listing 1024, then your probability increases greatly. 

So, even if all of your 10th-great grandparents are all different from each other (which I doubt), there are 4,096 of them and if you list those 4,096 for all people in the world, you're bound to find several people who are listed in multiple people's pedigrees.

xSilverPhinx

Is it really so odd to think that people married their cousins much more often than they do now? That would mean a whole line of ancestors getting crossed.
I am what survives if it's slain - Zack Hemsey


pytheas

Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on December 08, 2011, 10:37:51 PM
Part of the paradox can be resolved by considering the tribal nature of earlier generations.  There was probably a much higher incidence of what we would refer to today as "incest" during those times. So you would probably find, for example, that one level 10-great grandfather was the father of more than one of your level 9-great grandparents.  That would cut down on the required number of ancestors somewhat.  If you started with a bottleneck of one woman, for example, such as "Mitochondrial Eve" 200,000 years ago  (see article on her at  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100817122405.htm )  , all current humans might come from her.  This means that, of necessity, there was "incest" at probably multiple levels downstream from her (using "incest" not in a legal or moral sense).  That cuts down on the total number of required ancestors.  Am I making sense?



Cut even more with Adam Y patrilinear heritage which is more recent. although i knew the 60000 example I see it has been revised to 142000 years ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y-chromosomal_Adam

the ancestor paradox is that although we are all related, we dont seem to acknowledge it and feel that way...
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