A logical exercise

[OldGit]

Suppose somebody comes in at the halfway stage.  He doesn't know anything about the third plane - all he sees are two planes, one going to Mauritius and one to Denver.  If you ask that person the odds, he rightly says 50-50.

Why are the odds different if that person doesn't come?

[The Magic Pudding]

Suppose somebody comes in at the halfway stage.  He doesn't know anything about the third plane - all he sees are two planes, one going to Mauritius and one to Denver.  If you ask that person the odds, he rightly says 50-50.

Why are the odds different if that person doesn't come?

The odds aren't different, this new guy just doesn't have sufficient information to calculate the odds.

[Velma]

It's a restating of the Monty Hall problem.  The Mythbusters showed it is better to switch after the 'reveal' than it is to stay with your first choice.  Don't ask me for links - I got off work at 2 am (local time), home at 3 am, and it's now 4:40 am and I've had two beers.  It is time for bed.  You know how to use Google.   

[Ali]

I still don't get it.     But I believe you. 

[OldGit]

Same here.  I've read half a dozen explanations and I have to accept it, but I simply can't get past 2 planes/2 destinations/50-50. 

[DeterminedJuliet]

Same here.  I've read half a dozen explanations and I have to accept it, but I simply can't get past 2 planes/2 destinations/50-50. 

Same.

[En_Route]

Same here.  I've read half a dozen explanations and I have to accept it, but I simply can't get past 2 planes/2 destinations/50-50. 

Same.

Bear in mind it's not just any two planes. One of the planes is the remainder of a pair after somebody who knows which is the right plane has intervened; the choice is therefore no longer based on pure randomness.

[En_Route]

Pick plane B and come visit me!

Has Ikea got its own landing strip?

Yes, but you have to build it yourself.

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

[Ali]

Pick plane B and come visit me!

Has Ikea got its own landing strip?

Yes, but you have to build it yourself.

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

Glad to have broken a dry spell. 

[Asmodean]

Pick plane B and come visit me!

Has Ikea got its own landing strip?

Yes, but you have to build it yourself.

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

*Really* laughed..? I think I can beat your years - it's been over a decade here. Oh, I can manage some occasional polite laughter at a joke in a properly politically correct setting, but I don't find many things worth laughing about.

Eh... I suppose something has to put Grumpy in the Grumpy Lumpy.

[Ali]

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

*Really* laughed..? I think I can beat your years - it's been over a decade here. Oh, I can manage some occasional polite laughter at a joke in a properly politically correct setting, but I don't find many things worth laughing about.

Eh... I suppose something has to put Grumpy in the Grumpy Lumpy.

You guys are grumps.  It's rare I go a whole day without at least a couple of serious belly laughs.  I don't think my life is that much happier than either of yours, I just manage to find a lot of humor in the stuff around me.

[Asmodean]

...While me, I see tragedy in every comedy. That, or overanalyse. I like doing that.

[En_Route]

Pick plane B and come visit me!

Has Ikea got its own landing strip?

Yes, but you have to build it yourself.

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

*Really* laughed..? I think I can beat your years - it's been over a decade here. Oh, I can manage some occasional polite laughter at a joke in a properly politically correct setting, but I don't find many things worth laughing about.

Eh... I suppose something has to put Grumpy in the Grumpy Lumpy.

I have long suppresses any tendencies to public expressions of mirth as I do not wish my aura of gravitas to be compromised. Plus I have crooked teeth.

[Amicale]

. Haven't laughed so much for years. In fact, come to think of it, I haven't laughed for years.

*Really* laughed..? I think I can beat your years - it's been over a decade here. Oh, I can manage some occasional polite laughter at a joke in a properly politically correct setting, but I don't find many things worth laughing about.

Eh... I suppose something has to put Grumpy in the Grumpy Lumpy.

You guys are grumps.  It's rare I go a whole day without at least a couple of serious belly laughs.  I don't think my life is that much happier than either of yours, I just manage to find a lot of humor in the stuff around me.

I'm prettymuch the same way you are, Ali. While I might not genuinely laugh every day, more often than not, I find the humour in the stuff around me. All kinds of crazy little things. It's hard not to crack up laughing sometimes! If I feel the need to be sad, then fine, I'll let myself be sad and moody for a while. But most of the time, I prefer to be goofy, to joke around, to find joy where I can bloody well find it.

[Asmodean]

I have long suppresses any tendencies to public expressions of mirth as I do not wish my aura of gravitas to be compromised. Plus I have crooked teeth.

Ah! The Asmo has enough gravitas for a cemetery... Or a black hole, so His aura can tolerate some minor blows. I do should get my teeth whitened though...