Unrest in the Middle East

[terranus]

So, what do you guys think about all the chaos that is unfolding in the middle east? The Tunisian government has already fallen, and other governments are seeing ominous signs right now as well (Egypt, Yemen, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Lebanon, Iran and others). Some news outlets are calling it the Twitter/Facebook Revolution, due to social media being used as a primary means for communication amongst the protesters.

I think it is awesome that Middle Easterners have finally started standing up for themselves and are trying to take down their repressive governments. However, I think democracy has a long way to go before it becomes a reality in the ME. But it's encouraging to see young people so concerned about their freedoms that they are willing to risk everything to get out from under the thumb of autocracy. Sounds like another group of people that are in the history books...

On the other hand, some of these autocracies were relatively secular in nature...and thought of a secular government being replaces by a theocracy/Islamic state is rather disturbing. The good news is that most of the news agencies are reporting religious political opposition parties have little or no involvement with the protests...and that the true force behind them are relatively liberal groups of youths and democracy advocates.

At any rate...we shall see how this plays out. I would love to see a few of those countries I first listed have their government toppled. If I could donate money to the protesters in Egypt, I probably would. What do you guys think? Is this just a small thing that will go away in a few weeks and be forgotten by everyone, or will these protests cause mass revolution to break out in the ME and shake the region to it's core? And if it's the latter, what do you think the U.S./U.K./UN's response will be?

[Asmodean]

Me, I think the countries where democracy is practical should be democratic. Other countries should not. It is a good thing they try though. Can't know if it will work until you try.

[Ultima22689]

This is how democracy is born. When the people had enough of this authoritative shit they unleash the power of the people. America did it and look where it got us (alot of us could use a history lesson now though). You can't force democracy on people but when people rebel for it and fight for it, like the Egyptians are doing, the moment the dust settles the USA and other countries of the free world need to come in full force with aid and support for these fledgling democracies as they pop up on their own. Much better than spending billions and sending our troops to die in a war and that goes for the entire free world, not just the USA. THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED BUT IT WILL BE ON FACEBOOK!!!

They've been reporting on it for awhile now on Al Jazeera, I don't normally watch it but I have been for the past few days and I think I may have become an Al Jazeera lover, here be the link to the live stream.


http://english.aljazeera.net/

[Asmodean]

the moment the dust settles the USA and other countries of the free world need to come in full force with aid and support for these fledgling democracies as they pop up on their own

...How is that not shoving your general political views down someone's throat..? Dictatorship bad! Democracy good! How is it good? Or rather, how is it good for (a hypothetical) me..?

What I'm saying is, support those democracies that function all you want, but I would encourage those that do not to change their form of government, not to cling to a system that doesn't work for them.

[Tom62]

I agree with Asmodean. Why should the west mingle in the internal affairs of Egypt? Let the people of Egypt decide themselves about their own future. If they want help and support then they could ask for it, but under no conditions should we shove our political views down their throats.

[The Magic Pudding]

Indonesia seems to have made the transition successfully.

[terranus]

Please note: I am not saying that everyone should adopt a democratic government. I agree with you Asmo, democracy does not always work out. Look at Russia - they tried it, and their entire economy collapsed. They went from a world superpower to a bigger version of the Ukraine (no offense to any Ukrainians we have around here).

Also, I agree that we should not mess with their internal affairs. However - seeing as how Egypt has been one of our strongest allies - if the Egyptian people ask for UN/UK/US/etc. support - shouldn't we give it to them? Note: by Egyptian "people", I don't mean their current government.

[Ultima22689]

I'm not talking about going in and trying to do what we did in Iraq by training their miltary and setting up their government and stuff like that. All i'm referring to is aid, Egypt is going to be in very bad shape once this all settles and it's going to make it easy for some theocracy to rush in and take control of everything OR we could help them sustain their infrastructure and provide medical care and supplies. The big difference here is that these people WANT democracy and they are literally tearing Egypt down to get it, we aren't forcing our political ideology down anyones' throats if they are DEMANDING it.

[The Magic Pudding]

Please note: I am not saying that everyone should adopt a democratic government. I agree with you Asmo, democracy does not always work out. Look at Russia - they tried it, and their entire economy collapsed. They went from a world superpower to a bigger version of the Ukraine (no offense to any Ukrainians we have around here).

I think Russia deserve better than what they've got, I don't know why they preferred a drunken buffoon to Gorbachev.  Didn't oil and gas prices rise and make Puten look good?  Anyway it was the prior system that collapsed, not their version of democracy.  Democracy seems to have been stolen, distorted but not collapsed.

Also, I agree that we should not mess with their internal affairs. However - seeing as how Egypt has been one of our strongest allies - if the Egyptian people ask for UN/UK/US/etc. support - shouldn't we give it to them? Note: by Egyptian "people", I don't mean their current government.

Support fine, but this business of dying and spending billions for other peoples freedom gets a bit tiresome at times.

[terranus]

Support fine, but this business of dying and spending billions for other peoples freedom gets a bit tiresome at times.

The U.S. already spends billions on Egypt. $1.5 billion in foreign aid, at last count. Why not redirect that money towards the people who are rising up against Mubarack's repressive regime, rather than continuously bribing Mubarek and his gang to be our allies whilst they crush their opposition and any hope of true Egyptian freedom.

[Tom62]

The U.S. already spends billions on Egypt. $1.5 billion in foreign aid, at last count. Why not redirect that money towards the people who are rising up against Mubarack's repressive regime, rather than continuously bribing Mubarek and his gang to be our allies whilst they crush their opposition and any hope of true Egyptian freedom.

Exactly.  Why should we treat the people in Egypt any different than those in Tunisia? When Tunisia rebelled against their government, we told the their government to step down. All the Egyptians now hear from the western politicians is to be nice towards each other. I don't like it either that the USA wants Mubarak to stay in power, just because he is friends with the USA and Israel.

[Stevil]

The US should really take a back seat. This is an Egyptian and potentially Middle East issue.
US should focus on their own issues.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Having lived through the revolution that toppled the Shah in 1979, my sense is that Mubarak is on the way out.  He has over this weekend continually offered compromise, which in Middle Eastern culture is usually regarded as a sign of weakness.  He deployed his armies to Cairo's streets, but his soldiers refuse to do anything except watch the proceedings.  Given that the Army is the power broker in Egypt, their inaction bodes ill for his regime.

However, action is not a good course either, because if the Army opens fire on the people, the Mubarak regime will be discredited in the eyes of the world.  Politically, the only thing he can do is sit tight and hope for the best, and that is not a good strategy when your regime is pressured like this.  

He may still contain the situation, but from here, the issue looks to be very much up in the air.

At this point, I only hope that our government has some back-channel communication with the rebels so that we don't get stuck with the "backed Mubarak to the end" tag, like we did in Iran.  That label, combined with the Muslim Brotherhood's popularity in Egypt, will end any hope of dealing with a vital country on equitable terms.

[terranus]

Obama has already warned Mubarak not to crack down on the protesters. But it would be nice if the government would come out with a stance that officially backed the protesters and the ouster of Mubarak.

Pretty sure if Mubarak forces the Egyptian army to open fire on the protesters, the US will take action - regardless of what everyone else in the world thinks. In fact, I just read a report that there's already a National Guard unit en route to Egypt to be official "observers". Can't remember the link...will find and repost later.

[The Magic Pudding]

Obama has already warned Mubarak not to crack down on the protesters. But it would be nice if the government would come out with a stance that officially backed the protesters and the ouster of Mubarak.

I've heard these tea party protests, surrender Obama, there are noisy people stompen around so obviously your day is past.

Pretty sure if Mubarak forces the Egyptian army to open fire on the protesters, the US will take action - regardless of what everyone else in the world thinks. In fact, I just read a report that there's already a National Guard unit en route to Egypt to be official "observers". Can't remember the link...will find and repost later.

What? sorry I'll rephrase "WTF".