The sustainability of transhumanism

[Ultima22689]

Simply replace organs with synthetic ones?  You mean, like an artificial brain?  Unless we can keep the brain functional at a reasonable level permanently, replacing other organs won't mean much.  

I think there will be slow improvement in the average human lifespan.  Add a few years with medical advances.  But as I said before, the maximum lifespan is pretty fixed and built into our DNA and not something that can be altered without a major new discovery, which could occur, but I'm skeptical.  Predictions of the future are almost always as wrong as they can be.

And the idea that scientific advances are getting exponentially faster is probably wrong.  In the field of physics, as pointed out in "The Trouble with Physics", a book by Lee Smolin, the last few decades have been the first in the past 200 years that major scientific breakthroughs haven't occurred.  Think about that.  He wrote, "But today, despite our best efforts, what we know for certain about the laws of nature is no more than what we knew back in the 1970's."  What happened was that theoretical physicists became enamored with string theory, which may or may not reflect the underlying basis of all particles and forces, but appears to be unprovable, and seems incapable of making scientific predictions.  All the bright young physicists devoted their careers to string theory, which was the only way to get an academic job, and it's all come to nothing so far.  So let's be a little modest about predicting how science will progress, especially with regard to things as complicated as the human body.

Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... -universe/

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... exoplanet/

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... etic-life/

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2008/04/scientists-prov/

http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors ... tor-inside

[youtube:1s5wavmv]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER-UqbGQjbU[/youtube:1s5wavmv]

[Wilson]

Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

Ah .. links to the internet are the gospel and books are second class citizens?  Did not know that.

I didn't say that there won't continue to be scientific advances.  Of course there will.  But, for example, the idea that the universe may be recycled is so speculative and probably unprovable that they are more interesting than useful .. and very likely wrong.  Physicists are always proposing new concepts which sound plausible at first .. and then most of them get shot down.  That's the nature of the beast.  

Here's a little chronology in quarter century increments.  Unfortunately, it's only from that book I mentioned earlier so has to be taken with a grain of salt, since it's only printed material, paraphrased.

1830-1855.  Faraday's concept that forces are conveyed by fields
1855-1880.  Maxwell unified electricity and magnetism, explained light as an electromagnetic wave.  Clausius introduced the notion of entropy.
1880-1905.  Electrons and X-rays discovered.  Max Planck developed the formula for the thermal properties of radiation.
1905-1930.  Einstein's special theory of relativity.  Wave-particle duality.
1930-1955.  Einstein's general theory of relativity.  Findings that we live in an expanding universe.  Quantum theory.  Understanding of the structure of atoms.  Discovery of many elementary particles.  Understanding that there are only four forces - electromagnetism gravity, strong and weak nuclear forces.  Big bang theory.
1955-1980.  Standard model of elementary particle physics - quarks, gluons, etc.  Hawking radiation.  Inflationary theory by Guth (1981).

Then things ground to a halt.  

Anyway, I find all that fascinating.

Now maybe it's because the relatively easy stuff has been done, and a slowdown is to be expected.  My point is that we can't count on huge breakthroughs to proceed at breakneck speed.  Maybe that's a little off the subject.  There are exciting developments going on and I don't want to minimize them.  But it's folly to assume that extension of the maximum life span of our species will be extended dramatically anytime soon.  Possible but unlikely.  Trust me on this.

Incidentally, I knew a fellow about 40 years ago who went to medical school for the specific purpose of learning how to live as long as possible.  Never planned to practice medicine.  His conclusion was that castration was the answer.  I assume he never followed through on that theory.  I hope not, because I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't have helped.

[Ultima22689]

Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

Ah .. links to the internet are the gospel and books are second class citizens?  Did not know that.

I didn't say that there won't continue to be scientific advances.  Of course there will.  But, for example, the idea that the universe may be recycled is so speculative and probably unprovable that they are more interesting than useful .. and very likely wrong.  Physicists are always proposing new concepts which sound plausible at first .. and then most of them get shot down.  That's the nature of the beast.  

Here's a little chronology in quarter century increments.  Unfortunately, it's only from that book I mentioned earlier so has to be taken with a grain of salt, since it's only printed material, paraphrased.

1830-1855.  Faraday's concept that forces are conveyed by fields
1855-1880.  Maxwell unified electricity and magnetism, explained light as an electromagnetic wave.  Clausius introduced the notion of entropy.
1880-1905.  Electrons and X-rays discovered.  Max Planck developed the formula for the thermal properties of radiation.
1905-1930.  Einstein's special theory of relativity.  Wave-particle duality.
1930-1955.  Einstein's general theory of relativity.  Findings that we live in an expanding universe.  Quantum theory.  Understanding of the structure of atoms.  Discovery of many elementary particles.  Understanding that there are only four forces - electromagnetism gravity, strong and weak nuclear forces.  Big bang theory.
1955-1980.  Standard model of elementary particle physics - quarks, gluons, etc.  Hawking radiation.  Inflationary theory by Guth (1981).

Then things ground to a halt.  

Anyway, I find all that fascinating.

Now maybe it's because the relatively easy stuff has been done, and a slowdown is to be expected.  My point is that we can't count on huge breakthroughs to proceed at breakneck speed.  Maybe that's a little off the subject.  There are exciting developments going on and I don't want to minimize them.  But it's folly to assume that extension of the maximum life span of our species will be extended dramatically anytime soon.  Possible but unlikely.  Trust me on this.

Incidentally, I knew a fellow about 40 years ago who went to medical school for the specific purpose of learning how to live as long as possible.  Never planned to practice medicine.  His conclusion was that castration was the answer.  I assume he never followed through on that theory.  I hope not, because I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't have helped.

I simply meant, don't go to one single book, if you had several things saying the same thing instead of quoting one author I wouldn't have even mentioned the book thing. Books are great,

Sure, you are right, we can't expect major brekatrhroughs to constantly happen  but i'm not talking about breakthroughs like you are. Transhumanism depends on the advancement of technology, not our understand of the universe when I say replacing the body with synthetics I mean advanced technology modeled after the human body, electronic brain, cybernetic bodies is what i'm referring to, not some magical panacea that will somehow make our DNA super. By enhancing the human body with technology, literally or leaving the biology altogether will we obtain vastly extended life spans if not indefinite ones.  So in that regard, there have been many scientific breakthroughs and many more are to follow.

3.
any significant or sudden advance, development, achievement, or increase, as in scientific knowledge or diplomacy, that removes a barrier to progress: The jet engine was a major breakthrough in air transport.

That is from the dictionary, a scientific breakthrough doesn't have to be a major eureka moment in our understanding of physics and the universe. THe memristor was the eureka moment for technology when HP accidently found it in 2008. While I haven't gone this far, many people are calling Leon Chua a modern Albert Einstein because memristors will most likely change everything. So, regardless of the advancement of our understanding of the universe, that knowledge is mostly irrelevant to the advancement of technology, specifically information technology which seems to be driving the transhumanist movemement at the moment.