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Confirmation Bias +

Started by Recusant, July 18, 2010, 02:34:47 PM

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Recusant

QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here.
"Religion is fundamentally opposed to everything I hold in veneration — courage, clear thinking, honesty, fairness, and above all, love of the truth."
— H. L. Mencken


Tank

Quote from: "Recusant"
QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here.
All too familiar unfortunately. Just goes to show you can take a moron to knowledge but you can't make them think. How much of this has been caused by the Internet and the apparent dilution of knowledge? In days gone by when there was not a Tera byte of information available at a flick of a switch people had to learn, they don't have to so now. The Internet has done to research what the calculator did for Maths, made everybody think it was easy  :sigh:
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

elliebean

This is why effective propaganda is almost always an appeal to emotion.
[size=150]â€"Ellie [/size]
You can’t lie to yourself. If you do you’ve only fooled a deluded person and where’s the victory in that?â€"Ricky Gervais

Tank

Quote from: "elliebean"This is why effective propaganda is almost always an appeal to emotion.
Undoubtedly, I did some negotiation courses once and emotion was always the top pressure point. It does get over played though.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

elliebean

True. Fear gets especially overplayed in this country.
[size=150]â€"Ellie [/size]
You can’t lie to yourself. If you do you’ve only fooled a deluded person and where’s the victory in that?â€"Ricky Gervais

Dretlin

Quote from: "Recusant"
QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here.

Well, that is deeply unsettling and disturbing in equal measures.

Squid

Sad but it does seem to explain a lot.

SSY

I suffer from it myself, it's a constant struggle to remind myself and try to remain objective. It's the worse with sports, some people can do anything terrible and still keep my ardent support.

As long as I remain convinced of my own fallibility I think I should be harmless.
Quote from: "Godschild"SSY: You are fairly smart and to think I thought you were a few fries short of a happy meal.
Quote from: "Godschild"explain to them how and why you decided to be athiest and take the consequences that come along with it
Quote from: "Aedus"Unlike atheists, I'm not an angry prick

The Magic Pudding

When I see from a distance, Obama being blamed for his countries woes, I'm left dumbfounded.

Must be hard using reason, particularly when someone’s education, sophistication and intelligence can be held against them.

wildfire_emissary

Or they find ways, ludicrous even, to justify their misinformation.
"All murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets." -Voltaire

Recusant

Quote from: "SSY"As long as I remain convinced of my own fallibility I think I should be harmless.

This is the crucial difference.  It's the ability to admit that one was wrong which is what the people this article is talking about are lacking:

QuoteThe problem is that sometimes the things they think they know are objectively, provably false. And in the presence of the correct information, such people react very, very differently than the merely uninformed. Instead of changing their minds to reflect the correct information, they can entrench themselves even deeper.

“The general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on the Michigan study. The phenomenon â€" known as “backfire” â€" is “a natural defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.”

And this is a very important point as well:

Quote...disturbingly, the ones who were the most confident they were right were by and large the ones who knew the least about the topic.

The desire to learn the facts, regardless of how those facts may conflict with beliefs, and in light of those fact to disabuse oneself of false beliefs is apparently relatively rare.  Though the article focuses on political beliefs, I couldn't help seeing a strong correlation with religious belief as I read it.  Many times in this forum, clear and concise presentations of fact are given in response to statements of belief backed up by misinformation. (Or belief baldly stated with no backing at all.) I know that eventually some people come around, because there are several members here who were once devout believers, but off the top of my head I can't think of a single instance where (for example) a Creationist member actually admitted: "You know, I had not been aware of that: It changes how I see the subject.  Maybe I was wrong." I think that the phenomenon which is the subject of the article is something we encounter here on a regular basis.  It's not surprising though; the strength of many people's political belief is second only to their religious belief.  I found it fascinating that the phenomenon had been studied and that what we so often see happen here when a believer is faced with facts contrary to their belief has been confirmed by the studies.

My view is similar to yours, SSY; I've been wrong too many times in my life (about things which were very important to me) to get too bent out of shape when it happens yet again.
"Religion is fundamentally opposed to everything I hold in veneration — courage, clear thinking, honesty, fairness, and above all, love of the truth."
— H. L. Mencken


Tank

Sometimes (often) the assertions I make look bull headed, at least I think they do, but underneath is always a small grain of salt reminding me I don't know it all and therefore should be prepared to re-evaluate what I think based on finding out something I didn't know before. This is why I hate preachers and dogmatists more than any other people  :rant:
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Squid

I think another thing which may play a part in relation to admitting being wrong is the idea of credibility to others.  That is, if I'm wrong about one thing than people will think that I wrong about everything, which is a very hasty generalization but nonetheless I think it can be an intrinsic motivator to "never be wrong".  I've been wrong before and have been reluctant to admit it but I've gotten better at it.  In some debates I've even had the ability to acknowledge my mistake and move on...but it's very difficult to do - we have a natural dislike for being incorrect.

Thumpalumpacus

Yeah, I had heated discussion about this with my son yesterday, when he was claiming to know something he clearly didn't know.

"Knowledge" is the surest impediment to learning.

Also, fwiw, Squid, I understand what you're saying, but when someone admits error freely and takes measures to correct themselves, it buttresses their credibility as far as I'm concerned.  I give little credence to someone who is certain of everything.
Illegitimi non carborundum.

Martin TK

I've said that before, but I had a theist once told me that no matter how much information or facts that he is confronted with, he will NEVER stop believing in god and the bible.  Even if we are able to prove that there is absolutely NO god, he will chose to continue to believe.  Now that's hardcore. :crazy:
"Ever since the 19th Century, Theologians have made an overwhelming case that the gospels are NOT reliable accounts of what happened in the history of the real world"   Richard Dawkins - The God Delusion