Premonitions?

[LoneMateria]

Kickass i'm glad to be considered open minded.  I've seen this video before, not on YouTube, but at http://www.christonthecrapper.com.   I've followed this conversation for a while (Never really had anything to add).  I'm pretty sure we all have had a Deja vu before, mine usually have been during the most repetitive and mundane aspects of my life but I seldom have them anymore ^_^.  I've never thought to test them and it seems very interesting to me, though I probably know how the results will be.  I think this is similar to prayer where you count the hits and forget the misses (Don't you just love it the answered prayer rate is the same as blind luck ^_^).  So the same chance of seeing everything exactly how you remember it (which that alone can be distorted) will be about the same as random chance.  ^_^  I don't know if there is anyway to get a definite conclusion with this because you are relying on memory :-/ if you see something and try to recall it 3 weeks later you don't remember exactly what you saw.

Matt Dillahunty on Non Prophets Radio brought up some study or experiment or something done.  Matt is an amateur magician and he looked up some study where a group of people saw a magic show, then 2 weeks later got together.  They had to recall what happened and the people had different memories of the tricks done and would convince one another of a trick that didn't happen.  I wish I knew more about the study it would be great to look at especially if you apply it to this situation. How reliable will your memory be if the premonition "came true"?

[Ultima22689]

Kickass i'm glad to be considered open minded.  I've seen this video before, not on YouTube, but at http://www.christonthecrapper.com.   I've followed this conversation for a while (Never really had anything to add).  I'm pretty sure we all have had a Deja vu before, mine usually have been during the most repetitive and mundane aspects of my life but I seldom have them anymore ^_^.  I've never thought to test them and it seems very interesting to me, though I probably know how the results will be.  I think this is similar to prayer where you count the hits and forget the misses (Don't you just love it the answered prayer rate is the same as blind luck ^_^).  So the same chance of seeing everything exactly how you remember it (which that alone can be distorted) will be about the same as random chance.  ^_^  I don't know if there is anyway to get a definite conclusion with this because you are relying on memory :-/ if you see something and try to recall it 3 weeks later you don't remember exactly what you saw.

Matt Dillahunty on Non Prophets Radio brought up some study or experiment or something done.  Matt is an amateur magician and he looked up some study where a group of people saw a magic show, then 2 weeks later got together.  They had to recall what happened and the people had different memories of the tricks done and would convince one another of a trick that didn't happen.  I wish I knew more about the study it would be great to look at especially if you apply it to this situation. How reliable will your memory be if the premonition "came true"?

That's the thing, it will be hard for me to test this on my own, how will I know i'm not convincing myself that X event is a premonition because I think I remember having the premonition, when I think back to them, it seems like I know for sure they were premonitions but when I look at how this stuff works it could very well be me just convincing myself otherwise. Frustrating, it is.

[LoneMateria]

Sometimes there are just things you can't do.  Unless you could remember every single detail from that period and commit it to paper you will never know if you are deceiving yourself.  And even that, write down every detail no matter how minute, mentality can't be very accurate.  Being human sometimes sucks.  Even if this could somehow be a scientific study there would have to be a huge margin of error.

[Ninteen45]

For some reason I picture you high while typing this, and it makes my head hurt.  I'll be open to stuff when there is some evidence for it.  I'm not going to be open to pseudoscience, deities, leprechauns, fairies, alien abductions, anal-probes, premonitions, bigfoot, telekinesis, telepathy, monsters, and anything else that works only in the mind of believers until there is tangible evidence to support it.  No one should.  

Whoops! I didn't mean it literally! By Open minded, I was talking about not dismissing something because of somebodies Incompetance! However, If it is something of a certainty, like: "The skin is an organ." I'll Gladly Dismiss anything without proper, repeatable evidence as poppycock.

By believing in such things you sets the groundwork for fanatics and scam artists.  We've all heard the sob stories of people who believed John Edwards could talk to the dead and made huge life altering choices because of it (some of which didn't end well).  Or people blowing rent money on psychics and astrologers.  Lets look at Christian Scientists (the ultimate oxymoron) and Jehovah Witnesses.  These people at times kill their children by refusing life saving medical treatment (and they at times refuse treatment for themselves). Homeopathy has had a few isolated cases where users refused to seek medical treatment until it was too late because the magic water "was healing them".

I'm rather offended by that. For one, I honestly would let my family believe this kinda *Your dead love you* stuff, as long as they don't do anything that is a darwin award winning type of stupid. And I also am a strong believer in the Placebo effect.

People have jumped off of buildings believing they can fly.  People killed women because they thought they were witches.  People killed babies because they were possessed by Satan and the list goes on and on.  Imagine how the world might be different if people refused to accept these type of beliefs without evidence.

God, I'd be posting this from mars!!!  

Just because something might be remotely possible doesn't mean I should be open to it.  Its remotely possible that American leaders are actually reptilian aliens, its remotely possible that the U.S. invented Sept. 11th to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, it's remotely possible that the Holocaust never happened, it's remotely possible that people can lift objects with their mind, its remotely possible that you can see the future,  it's remotely possible that weed makes you a genius, its remotely possible that aids is an alien virus sent to eradicate all human life on our planet, and its remotely possible that next time I take a shit a gold coin will pop out.  It doesn't mean I need to be open to the possibility especially when our evidence contradicts many of those claims.  If you want to be open minded be my guest, and the best of luck next time you take a shit, maybe a gold coin will pop out.

[/rant]

9/11) Perfect timing, plain and simple. the Racists and war mongers Got what they needed, and took advantage.

Leaders are aliens) WTF?

Holocaust) Haven't some nazi's confessed openly already?

Mind lifting) If you could get a robot to take the correct impulses, you kinda could... Or just lift it. Same thing.

AIDS) WTF? HIV is a totally carbon based Virus, And the closest to alien life we have could be silicon chips or the red rain of India...

Marijuana) I am going to remember this, and if it is tested and proven, I'll hold you out on it every time.


I also agree about that Video... Better explaination than I can manage...

[Ultima22689]

Marijuana) I am going to remember this, and if it is tested and proven, I'll hold you out on it every time.


I also agree about that Video... Better explaination than I can manage...

Check out my other thread, talking about neurogenesis, I think that is in the same vein.

[LoneMateria]

Whoops! I didn't mean it literally! By Open minded, I was talking about not dismissing something because of somebodies Incompetance! However, If it is something of a certainty, like: "The skin is an organ." I'll Gladly Dismiss anything without proper, repeatable evidence as poppycock.

You had me worried okay this makes more sense.

I'm rather offended by that. For one, I honestly would let my family believe this kinda *Your dead love you* stuff, as long as they don't do anything that is a darwin award winning type of stupid. And I also am a strong believer in the Placebo effect.

The problem is when a group of people believe in something like alien abductions, some people become ... obsessed and they can convince themselves that they were abducted and got the anal probe and blah blah blah.  The thing is when one or a few of these people have the right personality they can amass a legion of followers.  These followers become fanatics or fundamentalists.  There you have one person who is batshit crazy made even more people batshit crazy because of a harmless belief.  Its almost like Chaos Theory.

Heres another example, say I believe in life after death but I don't necessarily buy the whole heaven and hell thing.  That belief by itself is benign enough.  I tell my friends about it in some casual conversation and tell them it gives me comfort.  They like it too all though there is no evidence to support it this belief relaxes them.  Eventually a few generations down the road our belief has spread through word of mouth.  We all know how reliable that is.  Well a few generations down the road people want more details, so ideas are formed from guesses on what exactly we are.  Some postulate that we all have our own dimension and others think we are on Earth at places that made us happy or angry.  Now this idea has spread and Mr. John Edwards sees his opportunity to make a buck.  He decides to talk with groups of people and tell them what they want to hear.  All the while he charges money.  At first he isn't very good and he doesn't make much money.  But through practice he gets better, becomes recognized, and gets put on television.  Editing, deception, a crew, and a few listening devices later he gets a hit T.V. show.  He gets paid all sorts of money and gets to live his life however he wants while his audience pays him money and follows his advice.  Whats the harm?  Its harmful that some of his devoted audience spend all their money just to hear a kind word with the illusion of it coming from their loved one.  Its harmful because he is propagating a false belief system so he can make money.  Its harmful that these people are being lied to in such a fragile state of being.  What happens to these people when it comes out that John Edwards is a fraud?  These people who invested thousands of dollars in this faulty system, what happens to them?  Does knowing that you were lied to at such a vulnerable part of your life make you feel good?  How would you feel to know that someone you trusted, who brought you relief and happiness, lied to you to make a buck?
[/rant]

Don't get me wrong I too believe in the placebo effect in a few situations.  One situation is where the truth will do more harm then good.  If you are suicidal and an inch from shooting yourself in the head you better believe I would tell you any lie I could think of to stop you from pulling the trigger.  Also the thing with the placebo effect is it is a scientifically documented phenomena.  Although we don't understand exactly how it works we know it works.  Its been tested and approved.

9/11) Perfect timing, plain and simple. the Racists and war mongers Got what they needed, and took advantage.

Leaders are aliens) WTF?

Holocaust) Haven't some nazi's confessed openly already?

Mind lifting) If you could get a robot to take the correct impulses, you kinda could... Or just lift it. Same thing.

AIDS) WTF? HIV is a totally carbon based Virus, And the closest to alien life we have could be silicon chips or the red rain of India...

Marijuana) I am going to remember this, and if it is tested and proven, I'll hold you out on it every time.


I also agree about that Video... Better explaination than I can manage...

911) yup, the U.S. wanted something big to alleviate their boredom and politicians wanted something to cement their power.
Leaders are Aliens) Oh yeah you haven't heard of this?  I don't know if they are saying it about Obama (the anti-Christ) but they said it about the Bushs (almost proof there is a devil)
Holocaust) Yup we have Nazi's confessing, and documented records and we have people who deny it happened who say the Jews died of a disease.
Mind lifting)  no fun when physics are involved
AIDS) C'mon now the aliens probed me and told me they made aids and that they weren't going to give it to me because they saw my wife.  scuse me whil I gt a ber Cletus
Marijuana) Just remember you can't test it and prove it while you are high.

??? Did I make a comment on that video?  I don't think I did, I just posted where I first saw it (christonthecrapper)

[Loffler]

What exactly is a premonition? I have always had them since I was a little kid however in the past couple of years I have one almost every day. I clearly remember dreaming the future since that is where it comes from, my dreaming or if I space out during the day. I've even consciously remembered them from time to time and acted on them once or twice with positive results, for example, I dreamed the lottery numbers. I told my dad what to play, we won ten thousands bucks. I've never really understood them, anyone here able to offer a scientific explanation?

Here's some scientific explanation: you're probably either lying or simply don't have much of a grasp of statistics. So you won the lottery. Go play the lottery 15,000 more times, with 15,000 predicted numbers. Odds are you will be $5,000 in the hole when you're done.

Thousands if not millions of people have won $10,000 in the lottery. How many "predicted" their numbers? Every single one that didn't ask for a random ticket, that's how many. By definition.

Informal premonitions benefit from post hoc reasoning. People forget the premonitions that didn't come true and remember the ones that did. Here's how to find out if you truly have a special power (assuming you even want to know the truth): keep a PRE-EVENT premonition journal. Every time you have what you think is a premonition, write it down before it comes true. At the end of a year (or 2 years, or 5, whatever you want to do), go back and look at how many of your predictions came 100% true, how many just came close. Pay close attention to probability: if there was a 50% chance of flipping tails, that's not much of a prediction if you call it.

Or just test it out on some dice. roll the dice 1,000 times, predicting the outcome before each one. If you're right significantly more than 1/6 of the time, maybe you're a precog.

, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

The point of my post is to answer the thread's question and provide you more detailed guidance than other people did. But if you prefer posters who tell you that you have above average intellect, by all means read those instead.

[Loffler]

lol, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

I'm gona take a stab in the dark and say he didn't read the responses  

Ha, indeed, that's always fun. I used to have a terrible habit of doing that. Glad I don't do so anymore, saves me from feeling, well, sheepish.

That's not a terrible habit; it's not a habit at all. And you shouldn't feel sheepish. Answer posts as you get to them.

[Loffler]

lol, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

I'm gona take a stab in the dark and say he didn't read the responses  

I haven't read any that offered as comprehensive an explanation as mine, that's for sure.

[Loffler]

Just thought I should make it clear that I don't believe, in anyway that I might possibly have some supernatural ability or anything, I was just curious because it happens very frequently. I completely concur with LoneMateria's statement.  In fact I've already written down 2 different dreams which may be premonitions, now I have to see if this actually works, it's odd though because i'm actively doing this so i'm constantly trying to catch them, which is weird, well we'll see if I catch them or not assuming they were premonitions. I'm going to do this for a couple of weeks and see where I'm at. Anymore advice on doing this would be appreciated it.

Oh and btw, according to the video I think you're the open minded one here LoneMateria. XD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia