Premonitions?

[brekfustuvluzerz]

why not use this thread to test your ability. start predicting events and we can track the percentages of accurate predictions!

[Ultima22689]

Alright, I'll attempt to begin monday.

[Loffler]

What exactly is a premonition? I have always had them since I was a little kid however in the past couple of years I have one almost every day. I clearly remember dreaming the future since that is where it comes from, my dreaming or if I space out during the day. I've even consciously remembered them from time to time and acted on them once or twice with positive results, for example, I dreamed the lottery numbers. I told my dad what to play, we won ten thousands bucks. I've never really understood them, anyone here able to offer a scientific explanation?

Here's some scientific explanation: you're probably either lying or simply don't have much of a grasp of statistics. So you won the lottery. Go play the lottery 15,000 more times, with 15,000 predicted numbers. Odds are you will be $5,000 in the hole when you're done.

Thousands if not millions of people have won $10,000 in the lottery. How many "predicted" their numbers? Every single one that didn't ask for a random ticket, that's how many. By definition.

Informal premonitions benefit from post hoc reasoning. People forget the premonitions that didn't come true and remember the ones that did. Here's how to find out if you truly have a special power (assuming you even want to know the truth): keep a PRE-EVENT premonition journal. Every time you have what you think is a premonition, write it down before it comes true. At the end of a year (or 2 years, or 5, whatever you want to do), go back and look at how many of your predictions came 100% true, how many just came close. Pay close attention to probability: if there was a 50% chance of flipping tails, that's not much of a prediction if you call it.

Or just test it out on some dice. roll the dice 1,000 times, predicting the outcome before each one. If you're right significantly more than 1/6 of the time, maybe you're a precog.

[Ultima22689]

What exactly is a premonition? I have always had them since I was a little kid however in the past couple of years I have one almost every day. I clearly remember dreaming the future since that is where it comes from, my dreaming or if I space out during the day. I've even consciously remembered them from time to time and acted on them once or twice with positive results, for example, I dreamed the lottery numbers. I told my dad what to play, we won ten thousands bucks. I've never really understood them, anyone here able to offer a scientific explanation?

Here's some scientific explanation: you're probably either lying or simply don't have much of a grasp of statistics. So you won the lottery. Go play the lottery 15,000 more times, with 15,000 predicted numbers. Odds are you will be $5,000 in the hole when you're done.

Thousands if not millions of people have won $10,000 in the lottery. How many "predicted" their numbers? Every single one that didn't ask for a random ticket, that's how many. By definition.

Informal premonitions benefit from post hoc reasoning. People forget the premonitions that didn't come true and remember the ones that did. Here's how to find out if you truly have a special power (assuming you even want to know the truth): keep a PRE-EVENT premonition journal. Every time you have what you think is a premonition, write it down before it comes true. At the end of a year (or 2 years, or 5, whatever you want to do), go back and look at how many of your predictions came 100% true, how many just came close. Pay close attention to probability: if there was a 50% chance of flipping tails, that's not much of a prediction if you call it.

Or just test it out on some dice. roll the dice 1,000 times, predicting the outcome before each one. If you're right significantly more than 1/6 of the time, maybe you're a precog.

, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

[Reginus]

lol, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

I'm gona take a stab in the dark and say he didn't read the responses  

[Ultima22689]

lol, i'm sure I don't have any special powers and I was not lying about anything. I already pretty much said I was going to do this already, so what was the exact point of your post?

I'm gona take a stab in the dark and say he didn't read the responses  

Ha, indeed, that's always fun. I used to have a terrible habit of doing that. Glad I don't do so anymore, saves me from feeling, well, sheepish.

[Ninteen45]

http://www.damninteresting.com/random-e ... the-future

Premonitions are kinda real....

[McQ]

http://www.damninteresting.com/random-event-generators-predict-the-future

Premonitions are kinda real....

Kinda.

That article might be Damn Interesting, but it certainly isn't Damn Science! LOL!

Here is an explanation of the study from the group who conducted it:

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/

To say that it is riddled with nonsense and non-science is almost being nice. By their own words:

Event selection is subjective and is guided by experience and consultation. Most events are considered global because they involve the attention or activity of many people around the world and figure prominently in news reports.[/i]

How about global events that don't attract media attention, at least not immediately? Darfur? Khmer Rouge? Not even worth going on with these and other problems with this study.

[VanReal]

I think this mostly consists of just being good at "playing the odds".  I have a couple of friends that used to say I could predict the future, and I'd always warn them with the "remember how often I'm right about these things" comment.

Really I was just using common sense.  

My son was jumping around the room like Bruce Lee and I told him to stop or he'd hurt himself and not 30 minutes later he had sliced open his back on a door knob after a spin from his bed.  

Three of my friends would go out a few times a week, and should not have been out driving, so on their way out I'd say, "You guys shouldn't go out tonight" only to find in the morning one is in jail after they were stopped by the cops.

"Don't play with my lighter" and then my son catches napkins on fire and burns his hand.

"She's married" and then he finds out she is.  Maybe that's why you have never been to her house, always see her before 9:00 PM and you can't call her home phone?

They aren't premonitions, they are just good and coincidentially timed guesses based on the obvious.

I sure like saying "I told you so" though.  

[Ninteen45]

That article might be Damn Interesting, but it certainly isn't Damn Science! LOL!

Damn Interesting is a site to show interesting things throughout time: Fact, Theory, Hypothesis or Fictional.

All I was saying is that people ARE trying such stuff. I'm no Super genius, but you gotta be open to all Stuff people throw at you! I mean, It's the churches job to reject all other possibilities and new Ideas!

[McQ]

That article might be Damn Interesting, but it certainly isn't Damn Science! LOL!

Damn Interesting is a site to show interesting things throughout time: Fact, Theory, Hypothesis or Fictional.



All I was saying is that people ARE trying such stuff. I'm no Super genius, but you gotta be open to all Stuff people throw at you! I mean, It's the churches job to reject all other possibilities and new Ideas!

I point out obvious flaws in what is claimed to be a scientific study and you extrapolate from that I am not open to new ideas? How's that?

Science tests new ideas all the time and I completely support that. It's the only way real progress is made. Maybe I'm mistaken about the purpose of your post but it appeared that you made the claim that premonitions are "kind of" real. I'm unsure what "kind of" real means. Can you clarify?

And that study itself, in the authors own text, is what dooms it to the dustbin of pseudoscience. That's not me or anyone being "closed minded". That's the study authors doing bad science.

[iNow]

[youtube:28su73fh]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T69TOuqaqXI[/youtube:28su73fh]

[LoneMateria]

All I was saying is that people ARE trying such stuff. I'm no Super genius, but you gotta be open to all Stuff people throw at you! I mean, It's the churches job to reject all other possibilities and new Ideas!

For some reason I picture you high while typing this, and it makes my head hurt.  I'll be open to stuff when there is some evidence for it.  I'm not going to be open to pseudoscience, deities, leprechauns, fairies, alien abductions, anal-probes, premonitions, bigfoot, telekinesis, telepathy, monsters, and anything else that works only in the mind of believers until there is tangible evidence to support it.  No one should.  

By believing in such things you sets the groundwork for fanatics and scam artists.  We've all heard the sob stories of people who believed John Edwards could talk to the dead and made huge life altering choices because of it (some of which didn't end well).  Or people blowing rent money on psychics and astrologers.  Lets look at Christian Scientists (the ultimate oxymoron) and Jehovah Witnesses.  These people at times kill their children by refusing life saving medical treatment (and they at times refuse treatment for themselves).  Homeopathy has had a few isolated cases where users refused to seek medical treatment until it was too late because the magic water "was healing them".  People have jumped off of buildings believing they can fly.  People killed women because they thought they were witches.  People killed babies because they were possessed by Satan and the list goes on and on.  Imagine how the world might be different if people refused to accept these type of beliefs without evidence.

Just because something might be remotely possible doesn't mean I should be open to it.  Its remotely possible that American leaders are actually reptilian aliens, its remotely possible that the U.S. invented Sept. 11th to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, it's remotely possible that the Holocaust never happened, it's remotely possible that people can lift objects with their mind, its remotely possible that you can see the future,  it's remotely possible that weed makes you a genius, its remotely possible that aids is an alien virus sent to eradicate all human life on our planet, and its remotely possible that next time I take a shit a gold coin will pop out.  It doesn't mean I need to be open to the possibility especially when our evidence contradicts many of those claims.  If you want to be open minded be my guest, and the best of luck next time you take a shit, maybe a gold coin will pop out.

[Ultima22689]

Just thought I should make it clear that I don't believe, in anyway that I might possibly have some supernatural ability or anything, I was just curious because it happens very frequently. I completely concur with LoneMateria's statement.  In fact I've already written down 2 different dreams which may be premonitions, now I have to see if this actually works, it's odd though because i'm actively doing this so i'm constantly trying to catch them, which is weird, well we'll see if I catch them or not assuming they were premonitions. I'm going to do this for a couple of weeks and see where I'm at. Anymore advice on doing this would be appreciated it.

Oh and btw, according to the video I think you're the open minded one here LoneMateria. XD

[McQ]

[youtube:1n608p4y]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T69TOuqaqXI[/youtube:1n608p4y]

Two enthusiastic Thumbs-up for this video!