Probability of life.

[zorkan]

The Vital Question by Nick Lane was the one that really blew my mind.
Yes, there is a black hole in biology.

Now I'm not a scientist in any field, but I can still speculate.
We live in a quantum universe which runs on probability.
If I knew how many particles are contained in it I could maybe come up with the approximate chance of live evolving.
Let's suppose it contains 10^100 particles in some sort of random dance, then the probability of life beginning to evolve anywhere would be 1/(10^100).
If that's anywhere near true then SETI might as well close.

[Tank]

Hi split this topic off as it's worthy of its own thread and a derail to the other one

[Dark Lightning]

The probability of life in this universe is 1.

[Tank]

The probability of life in this universe is 1.

    I hate Sundays

[zorkan]

Just seen this has been taken off another thread.
Big question this and it sounds ridiculous to think it doesn't.
But does life actually exist?
Do people exist?
Only humans have enough consciousness to ask questions about life and the universe.
The Anthropic Principle will drive you mad.
It occupied Stephen Hawking's mind for decades.

But something must exist, and it's what we call consciousness and it's still a mystery.
Consciousness Explained by Daniel Dennett needs to be re-titled Consciousness Not Explained.

What are people?
Dawkins does an awful job on this.
I need a quantum physicist to explain.

Closest I know is that the filaments of the brain have some resemblance to the filaments of the cosmos.
A simulation was done a few years ago. I'll try and find it.
There is also the idea that life has only one purpose - to hydrogenate carbon dioxide.

 

[Tom62]

It could well be that we are living in a computer simulation.

[Tank]

It could well be that we are living in a computer simulation.

It could be that God created the simulation?

[zorkan]

Fred Hoyle: "We must now admit to ourselves that the probability of life arising by chance by evolution is the same probability of throwing six in dice five million consecutive times."

He also came up with the 747 analogy.
Probability of life evolving on earth is like a hurricane blowing through a scrapyard and assembling a jumbo jet.

The one that fascinates me is this.
For you to exist at all your parents had to meet, and your grand parents also had to meet, going back 10,000 generations of our species. Then before that to the common ancestor of all human species.
These odds are truly cosmic.
It sounds like your existence is odds of 1/(2^20,000) at least. In reality it's incalculable.

The overwhelming probability is that someone else should be here in your place.

One big problem never solved is why the universe bothers to exist at all.
Best answer I know is that it is here to transition muons into electrons.
We are just by-products of that process.
https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainsmuons#:~:text=The%20muon%20is%20one%20of,part%20of%20the%20lepton%20group.

[Recusant]

For you to exist at all your parents had to meet, and your grand parents also had to meet, going back 10,000 generations of our species. Then before that to the common ancestor of all human species.
These odds are truly cosmic.
It sounds like your existence is odds of 1/(2^20,000) at least. In reality it's incalculable.

The overwhelming probability is that someone else should be here in your place.

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

[The Magic Pudding..]

For you to exist at all your parents had to meet, and your grand parents also had to meet, going back 10,000 generations of our species. Then before that to the common ancestor of all human species.
These odds are truly cosmic.
It sounds like your existence is odds of 1/(2^20,000) at least. In reality it's incalculable.

The overwhelming probability is that someone else should be here in your place.

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

Ye it seems a dumb argument to me.
I assume the universe at this point had to contain some quantity of lumps of stuff/critters.
It had to reach some configuration at this point and it ended up as it is with me in it.
So what?  It's not as if I'm significant.
Why worry about it? We'll all be gone soon.

[zorkan]

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

Given that life has existed on this planet for something like 4 billion years, what do you base this on?

If I wander into a town centre and look at the crowd, I think that it's a miracle any of us are here.

[Recusant]

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

Given that life has existed on this planet for something like 4 billion years, what do you base this on?

If I wander into a town centre and look at the crowd, I think that it's a miracle any of us are here.

You laid some odds against my being here--could easily have been somebody else. I did not dispute that. However the odds against them being here are just the same as mine, correct?

[Asmodean]

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

Given that life has existed on this planet for something like 4 billion years, what do you base this on?

If I wander into a town centre and look at the crowd, I think that it's a miracle any of us are here.

You laid some odds against my being here--could easily have been somebody else. I did not dispute that. However the odds against them being here are just the same as mine, correct?

I think the whole line of "what are the odds" arguments is fallacious when applied to past events.

What are the odds that I was born? 100%. The end. What are the odds that I'm me as opposed to Bob over yonder? Same.

Now, what are the odds that my child (I have none) will have grey eyes or be interested in chemistry or find Jesus or visit Mars? Those are the meaningful questions.

So, what are the odds of life arising somewhere in the Universe? The answer is, it did. Now, what are the odds of somewhere other than Earth spawning or having spawned life? From there rise many a valid and interesting questions.

[The Magic Pudding..]

Seems to me that the odds of someone else being here would be just the same as mine.

Given that life has existed on this planet for something like 4 billion years, what do you base this on?

If I wander into a town centre and look at the crowd, I think that it's a miracle any of us are here.

Sounds like a Marcusian sentiment.
My atheist world view doesn't allow for miracles.

[zorkan]

Sounds like a Marcusian sentiment.
My atheist world view doesn't allow for miracles.

I'm talking about the miracle of evolution which got us here to develop consciousness.

I've never come across Marcuse, but I'll wager his theories have been challenged.