Happy Atheist Forum

The GFN report:  http://www.footprintnetwork.org/images/uploads/Global_Footprint_Network_2009_annual_report.pdf

According to the 2009 Global Footprint Network report:

QuoteHumanity is simply demanding more from nature than it can provide. The effects of this imbalance are reaching every corner of our natural world, from species extinctions and water and food shortages, to disappearing forests and depleted fisheries.

These problems are occuring now while the entire population of Earth is still only baseline (unmodified) human.  Assuming the resources necessary for a single posthuman individual will be greater than those necessary for a single baseline individual, it seems that resources are simply too scarce to allow every one of the six billion and more people on Earth to pursue the posthuman condition.

Some transhumanists predict the end of scarcity; but the current economic, social, and political relationships rooted in scarcity we can only speculate how and when that will happen if it is indeed possible.

Thoughts?

The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Quote from: "DropLogic"The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Re the underlined. Two words, Easter Island. We didn't change our minds then as we cut down the last tree and worshipped false Gods.

Quote from: "Tank"

Quote from: "DropLogic"The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Re the underlined. Two words, Easter Island. We didn't change our minds then as we cut down the last tree and worshipped false Gods.

I think we have progressed beyond those days...or perhaps you are correct, except that Earth has come to represent Easter Island, and it's too large for us to see the problem.  
That's just it though isn't it...we can see the problem, yet continue doing almost nothing about it.  Sigh.  

Quote from: "DropLogic"I think we have progressed beyond those days...or perhaps you are correct, except that Earth has come to represent Easter Island, and it's too large for us to see the problem.  
That's just it though isn't it...we can see the problem, yet continue doing almost nothing about it.  Sigh.  

The trouble is all humans are selfish, foolish, short sighted and greedy to a greater or lesser extent and that varies with circumstance. I don't think humanity has sufficient collective will to save itself from a catastrophe. Humans probably will survive the crash as we are adaptable, resilient and have the ability to manipulate our environment that allows us to survive in almost any conditions. The biggest issue would be a change in gaseous carbon dioxide so great that it would turn the atmosphere toxic.

Quote from: "Tank"

Quote from: "DropLogic"I think we have progressed beyond those days...or perhaps you are correct, except that Earth has come to represent Easter Island, and it's too large for us to see the problem.  
That's just it though isn't it...we can see the problem, yet continue doing almost nothing about it.  Sigh.  

The trouble is all humans are selfish, foolish, short sighted and greedy to a greater or lesser extent and that varies with circumstance. I don't think humanity has sufficient collective will to save itself from a catastrophe. Humans probably will survive the crash as we are adaptable, resilient and have the ability to manipulate our environment that allows us to survive in almost any conditions. The biggest issue would be a change in gaseous carbon dioxide so great that it would turn the atmosphere toxic.

How close are we to that threshold?  I know the massive pockets of methane at the bottom of the oceans are of great concern.  Come to think of it, we're really setting up the dominoes of our demise.

Interesting, a repost then...

"...I just think we need some kind of miracle, a new wave of thinking sweeping the nations.....oh yeah, only in the movies, or is it, are we so locked into a global economy, a system we can not change, could we make this existence green, by voting Green, would it make a difference or catapult us to somewhere else, worse. No one else it seems, is doing anything about it, and, anyway, is it possible to demonstrate dissatisfaction or is that seen as action against the state nowadays, so to Vote then, Na it will never happen..." and Jats goes back to watching the football then "... but some-things gotta change..."

(https://www.happyatheistforum.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg410.imageshack.us%2Fimg410%2F7431%2Fwatchmen.gif&hash=43b93fecc011706c5155117765473424ae1ed2ca)

Quote from: "DropLogic"

Quote from: "Tank"

Quote from: "DropLogic"I think we have progressed beyond those days...or perhaps you are correct, except that Earth has come to represent Easter Island, and it's too large for us to see the problem.  
That's just it though isn't it...we can see the problem, yet continue doing almost nothing about it.  Sigh.   :D

I blame evolution for our short-sightedness, but it's also a good thing.  If we were always worried about the infinite probabilities of the future we might not survive today or tomorrow and our future survival doesn't affect evolution now.  Evolution works when we survive "the now."

A great book about the crash, sustainability, and cultural insanity is Derrick Jensen's book Endgame.  I've read most of it and it changed my opinion on a lot of things.  Get a copy, or go to his website for excerpts.

Quote from: "Tank"The trouble is all humans are selfish, foolish, short sighted and greedy to a greater or lesser extent and that varies with circumstance. I don't think humanity has sufficient collective will to save itself from a catastrophe. Humans probably will survive the crash as we are adaptable, resilient and have the ability to manipulate our environment that allows us to survive in almost any conditions. The biggest issue would be a change in gaseous carbon dioxide so great that it would turn the atmosphere toxic.

Wow, that's a negative outlook. In my life I have found geniune thoughtlessness a rarity; most people have compassion. Maybe its not much to start on, but together we can do almost anything. After all; despite the blood, shit and mud; we made it this far.

Quote from: "NearBr0ken"These problems are occuring now while the entire population of Earth is still only baseline (unmodified) human. Assuming the resources necessary for a single posthuman individual will be greater than those necessary for a single baseline individual, it seems that resources are simply too scarce to allow every one of the six billion and more people on Earth to pursue the posthuman condition.

I always fear I am pushing out of my depth on the H+ issue. I lack even a basic understanding of genetics or neurology. But it has always struck me that change is gradual. Often passing by unnoticed. For example, think of the silicone revolution, in that sense we have already become posthuman, we have dramatically extended our cognitive space. Our little computers, now so ubiquitous to us, we can use them to calculate, socially network, call up information, problem solve etc... Even my sodding mobile phone can access wikipedia.

What is of note is that, so far, there is much of the world denied adequate access to this. The voracious economic system which allows us to have our gadgets exclude prosperity from much of the world (what, interestingly, we call the “third” world â€" damn we're smug) . So yes, I think you are correct in your analysis; the 'posthuman' will be progressively resource draining, and at it will be at the exclusion of others.

Interesting topic, thanks for the OP.

peace

Since we don't actually know what direction transhumanism will take or how far it might go, it's quite possible that it will allow us to largely divorce ourselves from the need for scarce resources. If you're a tiny computronium sphere in orbit around the earth using nothing but sunlight to power yourself, what resources are you squandering? If you've altered yourself to grow roots and subsist entirely like a plant, what damage are you causing? If virtual environments become indistinguishable from the real thing, then physical travel becomes largely unnecessary with a vast savings to our energy expenditures. There are lots of ways that technology can actually free up resources.

It's not all doom and gloom.

Quote from: "dloubet"Since we don't actually know what direction transhumanism will take or how far it might go, it's quite possible that it will allow us to largely divorce ourselves from the need for scarce resources. If you're a tiny computronium sphere in orbit around the earth using nothing but sunlight to power yourself, what resources are you squandering? If you've altered yourself to grow roots and subsist entirely like a plant, what damage are you causing? If virtual environments become indistinguishable from the real thing, then physical travel becomes largely unnecessary with a vast savings to our energy expenditures. There are lots of ways that technology can actually free up resources.

It's not all doom and gloom.

What proportion of humans would become transhuman, 0.000014%? That would be a million people. What would happen to the rest? They would still be alive and reproducing.

The sad thing is that world over population could possibly be cured in just one generation  

Quote from: "Tank"

Quote from: "DropLogic"The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Re the underlined. Two words, Easter Island. We didn't change our minds then as we cut down the last tree and worshipped false Gods.

That's just a theory though. It's possible they were conquered by the Spanish.

This discussion about not acting until it's almost too late makes me think of that bad remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still.

Quote from: "NearBr0ken"I blame evolution for our short-sightedness, but it's also a good thing.  If we were always worried about the infinite probabilities of the future we might not survive today or tomorrow and our future survival doesn't affect evolution now.  Evolution works when we survive "the now."

A great book about the crash, sustainability, and cultural insanity is Derrick Jensen's book Endgame.  I've read most of it and it changed my opinion on a lot of things.  Get a copy, or go to his website for excerpts.

I get what you're talking about.

If something major happens, a lot of us will die and those that live, and breed on won't make the mistakes of the ones before them.............

.......pending who survives.

I don't know if transhumans would place more demand on the earth.
I'm more concerned about current humans keeping the Earth hospitable.
Human population has troubled me since I was a kid.

I could never condemn China for its one child policy.
What were they supposed to do, breed and let hunger and disease do the dirty work?
There were no unguarded continents left to take their overflow.

People tell us we will benefit from higher population, I don't believe them.
In some cities pollution was in some ways reduced, but with rapid growth they are again getting worse.
Pro growth advocates point to India, and say our population is nothing, well India is my idea of hell.

Ratzinger no doubt looks at things differently, but I see a world with more people and no orangutans as incredibly sad.

Quote from: "Sophus"

Quote from: "Tank"

Quote from: "DropLogic"The Earth will have no problem getting rid of that which harms it. Agent Smith's description of us was quite apt.  One thing humans are exceedingly good at however is survival.  We've proved that over our 4 million year existence.   The problem with homo sapiens sapiens is that we never change our ways until the absolute last second.  We wait until there is no other option except to change.  Had the library at Alexandria survived, and the Christian dark ages never occurred, I'm positive we would have had all this shit figured out by now....and I'd probably be living on Titan, or playing badminton on Luna...

Re the underlined. Two words, Easter Island. We didn't change our minds then as we cut down the last tree and worshipped false Gods.

That's just a theory though. It's possible they were conquered by the Spanish.

This discussion about not acting until it's almost too late makes me think of that bad remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still.

Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

Quote from: "The Magic Pudding"I don't know if transhumans would place more demand on the earth.
I'm more concerned about current humans keeping the Earth hospitable.
Human population has troubled me since I was a kid.

I could never condemn China for its one child policy.
What were they supposed to do, breed and let hunger and disease do the dirty work?
There were no unguarded continents left to take their overflow.

People tell us we will benefit from higher population, I don't believe them.
In some cities pollution was in some ways reduced, but with rapid growth they are again getting worse.
Pro growth advocates point to India, and say our population is nothing, well India is my idea of hell.

Ratzinger no doubt looks at things differently, but I see a world with more people and no orangutans as incredibly sad.

When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

Quote from: "radicalaggrivation"When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

Quote from: "The Magic Pudding"

Quote from: "radicalaggrivation"When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

Well a lot of these things are not wishful thinking at all. They are real applications for technology that we have today. Much of this is inevitable. I never said that this would solve all of our problems. Trans-humanism will present increasingly difficult problems. There are just some issues that our leap in technology will resolve. For example, we will be able to overcome the diseases that have plagued us since we stood upright but we also will be susceptible to human engineered diseases. Imagine if a terrorist group engineered a flu virus that was immune to current vaccines. Millions could die before the proper counteraction was formed. Also keep in mind that the developed world will be reaping the benefits of all of these advances, while much of the undeveloped world will remain the same. There will be people immune to most natural disease living in the same country as people with vitamin A deficiencies. The wealth gap could increase or we could create a whole new class of people to rule the weak. Much of this could be avoided but with improper motivation this is very possible. There is also the threat of information. When we migrate everything onto the internet it would be possible to learn anything. You could learn how to build a nuclear bomb (which has happened before with shocking accuracy) or how to disrupt infrastructure. Trans-humanism will be defined by how we utilize information and there are equal benefits and dangers to how we use it. So the future I speak of will not be perfect by any stretch of the imagination. We will face more extreme danger than the human race ever has. But the risk is worth the rewards. I agree with you, that there is still much suffering to go around. I do not believe this will be a result of trans-humanism, however. I think this will happen because of a lack of action by those will all the technology and information. That still will not stop the inevitable pace of our technology. Another big question that is scary to think about is- what happens when our technology outpaces us? What happens when our AI becomes smarter than us? What happens when our technology makes us obsolete? It would be like terminator.

Quote from: "radicalaggrivation"

Quote from: "The Magic Pudding"

Quote from: "radicalaggrivation"When people talk about the sustainability of the earth, the population is always one of the biggest issues considered. What people fail to understand is that even our current technology has provided us with unprecedented means to support our growing world population. It is always popular to think we will run out of resources. People have been saying that same thing for centuries. While the population has increased so has world food production and the ease of transport for resources. We are now on the cusp of resolving issues of world food shortages. Just look at the progress being made on the genetic enhancement of salmon and the wide array of crops that are already modified like rice, soybeans, and corn. We now have the ability to create food supplies almost from scratch that are more abundant and healthier to eat. There was just recently a breakthrough in food packaging that aids in keeping food fresher for up to 3 times as long as we do now. My point is that even if the world population skyrockets ( and there is no reason to be alarmed at its steady rate of growth now) we have the ability to provide for an increase, we just do not have the determination to do it.

People are still concerned with their individual boundaries like country and religion. The easiest way to slow the population is economic prosperity but we have way too many countries exploiting smaller countries for their resources for this to happen. Despite this trans-humanism will happen. Our technology is propelling us rapidly in that direction. Our computers will soon be on the nano and atomic level. Just this past week there was a major break through in the first stages of building quantum computers. We are rapidly learning how to control the components of the atom and it would be foreseeable that in 3 to 4 years, we could have our first quantum computer. Nano technology will surpass any other technology in application in the next 20 years. In 30 years the technology will be as cheap as cell phone. We will have nanobots in our blood stream ( possibly replacing our blood cells). They will destroy diseases and reverse much of the aging process. They will slowly rebuild our faulty designs using our own cells. They will coagulate our blood faster if we are critically injured. We are at the edge of a time of endless possibility. We will extend our lives radically with our technology. We already are now.

We will send nanobots into our brain (they have to be small enough to break through the blood brain barrier but that will happen) to send stimulate our senses from within. It will allow the creation of fully immersive virtual worlds. Our populations will slow because people will have more virtual sex than real sex, in a reality where we will be able to be anyone and interact with anyone that we please. If not interacting with real people then perhaps with artificial intelligence that has passed the Turing test with flying colors. An AI that is indistinguishable from a human being. All of these things will be possible with the direction and speed at which we are heading into the future. Regardless of the condition of some, trans-humanism or the singularity (as some of us like to call it) is near. It will happen no matter the overall condition of the world. We will, however, be much more efficient. We will overcome food supply shortages, energy crisis, and even the inevitability of death. And keep in mind that our technology will not evolve at a slowly increasing rate. If technological trends show us anything, its that change will be exponential. Think about how slowly the telephone was adopted versus the cell phone. It only took about 15 years for cell phones to go from rich people's play things to being more common than a second pair of shoes. Think about the invention of the computer to now. We are now all connected in ways that were thought impossible only 30 years ago. The world has changed exponentially and will continue at an exponential rate of growth. We will develop and adopt technology at a blinding rate and it will all be beneficial to our progress towards the singularity. We live in exciting times people. If you pay attention you will see the world become a totally new place in the next 30 years.

I suppose wishful thinking is better than worrying, unless it leads to problems being ignored.
What I've heard about fish farming is they feed many more kilos of low value wild fish to produce a kilo of fish for the wealthy.
It's a long time since I've heard any good news regarding our oceans.
We haven't increased the fresh water supply, but billions more need a drink.
Some people always seem to claim the end is nigh, the green revolution may have postponed famine I don't take comfort in that.
Peak oil is past, oil has been vital to feeding the billions.
Some suggest bio fuels, well peak soil and peak super-phosphate are problems to.

We may one day arrive in your bright shiny future, but I fear their will be much sorrow before we do.

Well a lot of these things are not wishful thinking at all. They are real applications for technology that we have today. Much of this is inevitable. I never said that this would solve all of our problems. Trans-humanism will present increasingly difficult problems. There are just some issues that our leap in technology will resolve. For example, we will be able to overcome the diseases that have plagued us since we stood upright but we also will be susceptible to human engineered diseases. Imagine if a terrorist group engineered a flu virus that was immune to current vaccines. Millions could die before the proper counteraction was formed. Also keep in mind that the developed world will be reaping the benefits of all of these advances, while much of the undeveloped world will remain the same. There will be people immune to most natural disease living in the same country as people with vitamin A deficiencies. The wealth gap could increase or we could create a whole new class of people to rule the weak. Much of this could be avoided but with improper motivation this is very possible. There is also the threat of information. When we migrate everything onto the internet it would be possible to learn anything. You could learn how to build a nuclear bomb (which has happened before with shocking accuracy) or how to disrupt infrastructure. Trans-humanism will be defined by how we utilize information and there are equal benefits and dangers to how we use it. So the future I speak of will not be perfect by any stretch of the imagination. We will face more extreme danger than the human race ever has. But the risk is worth the rewards. I agree with you, that there is still much suffering to go around. I do not believe this will be a result of trans-humanism, however. I think this will happen because of a lack of action by those will all the technology and information. That still will not stop the inevitable pace of our technology. Another big question that is scary to think about is- what happens when our technology outpaces us? What happens when our AI becomes smarter than us? What happens when our technology makes us obsolete? It would be like terminator.

I was in 100% agreement until you said Terminator. Why would AI simply assume that all humanity must die? I think by the time we have true AI man will be nearly indistinguishable from the machines themselves. Aside from just augmenting our biology with nanotechnology I believe many, including myself will also move towards integrating the technology into our biology by literally building us from the inside out with non biological components. We'll be millions of times more intelligent, the machines will be brilliant but the gap won't be so big as it would be now.

Quote from: "Tank"Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

From what I know it's quite possible the Spanish took them into the slave trade (http://www.crystalinks.com/easterisland.html). We'll probably never confirm a theory either way but, it's fun to think about. I love the idea of having the tree chopping metaphor but I kind of doubt its validity.

Quote from: "Sophus"

Quote from: "Tank"Interesting. I had never heard that and on any of the TV programmes I have seen about the island.

From what I know it's quite possible the Spanish took them into the slave trade (http://www.crystalinks.com/easterisland.html). We'll probably never confirm a theory either way but, it's fun to think about. I love the idea of having the tree chopping metaphor but I kind of doubt its validity.

A most interesting article  

From that article they date the statue building at A.D. 1000-1100.
Isn't the legendary population crash supposed to date back to this time, long before the Spanish appeared?
A well populated island of Polynesians would put a good fight, New Zealand was no walk over.
I think the the depredations of various visitors was only possible because the population had already crashed, though divide and conquer is always possible.

So, any other transhumanist on the boards? What do you guys think of it? I'd like to about it as I identify as one however I can't really say i've met any other transhumanists, when you talk to people about it they'r all like "WTF? NAH THAT AIN'T REAL!" Then i'm all like " look at this article" and they're all like "OH SNAP SON! THAT SHIT IS SCARY FOR REAL!!" So, i'm asking the denizens of one of my favorite forums as the average IQ is probably at least 110 as far as I can tell from the year and some months i've been here, can't believe it's really been that long. XD

In case you don't have a clue what it is, here is a wiki link!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism)

I do hold some transhumanist values.    

I do however think most problems can be solved without going too far down the transhumanism path. I think Transhumanism can only really work in a stable society - and what is meant by stable could very well be debatable.

After reading the first paragraph of the Wikipedia article, I would now say that I am a transhumanist.

Quote from: "Ultima22689"So, any other transhumanist on the boards? What do you guys think of it? I'd like to about it as I identify as one however I can't really say i've met any other transhumanists, when you talk to people about it they'r all like "WTF? NAH THAT AIN'T REAL!" Then i'm all like " look at this article" and they're all like "OH SNAP SON! THAT SHIT IS SCARY FOR REAL!!" So, i'm asking the denizens of one of my favorite forums as the average IQ is probably at least 110 as far as I can tell from the year and some months i've been here, can't believe it's really been that long. XD

In case you don't have a clue what it is, here is a wiki link!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism)

MERGED TOPIC WITH OTHER TRANSHUMANIST TOPIC, AS THERE ARE MANY THREADS ON THE SUBJECT ALREADY.

I suppose the thrust of this thread is that humanism will lead to dramatic life extension of the human species, and the world population will grow rapidly, and we'll run out of food.

I say, let's worry about stuff that's likely to happen.  Life extension is pie in the sky.  It could happen, but there are no guarantees, at least for the foreseeable future.  Homo sapiens appears to have an absolute maximum life span of around 110 years, and that is thought to be related to the telomeres that are found at the end of each of our chromosomes.  Those telomeres protect the chromosomes from deterioration, and get shorter as we age.  So to increase the absolute life span limit, people have tried medication to lengthen those telomeres.  But the side effect was increased risk of cancer.

The one technique which might actually increase the maximum life span is significantly reduced calorie intake over one's lifetime.  That works dramatically in rats.  Look around and see how likely that's going to catch on.

I suspect that scientific methods of creating food out of available raw materials will occur before life extension does.

Of course some true life extension method may be discovered in the future.  At that point humans will adjust, as they always have.

Quote from: "Wilson"I suppose the thrust of this thread is that humanism will lead to dramatic life extension of the human species, and the world population will grow rapidly, and we'll run out of food.

I say, let's worry about stuff that's likely to happen.  Life extension is pie in the sky.  It could happen, but there are no guarantees, at least for the foreseeable future.  Homo sapiens appears to have an absolute maximum life span of around 110 years, and that is thought to be related to the telomeres that are found at the end of each of our chromosomes.  Those telomeres protect the chromosomes from deterioration, and get shorter as we age.  So to increase the absolute life span limit, people have tried medication to lengthen those telomeres.  But the side effect was increased risk of cancer.

The one technique which might actually increase the maximum life span is significantly reduced calorie intake over one's lifetime.  That works dramatically in rats.  Look around and see how likely that's going to catch on.

I suspect that scientific methods of creating food out of available raw materials will occur before life extension does.

Of course some true life extension method may be discovered in the future.  At that point humans will adjust, as they always have.

did you know that America produces and throws away more food than it consumes? Guess what's even more amazing? That number is growing. This talk of the food supply dwindling is not quite true I think. Food won't be a problem and not just because of a growing supply, aside from finding ways to produce far more food at lower costs than ever before, transhumanism isn't only about extending the life span. An extended life span will not come from some fountain of youth for the biological.  When I think of an extended life span it's because the human body has just become another IT. One will simpy replace organs with synthetic ones, one may rid oneself of the biology altogether in favor of superior, synthetic body. Cybernetics are beginning to make major strides, several major breakthroughs were made in 2010, I can't even begin to imagine all the scientific breakthroughs and technological advances that 2011 may hold if it's half as good as the stuff i've read about in 2010 then this will be a very good year, naturally I think it will be twice as good as last year.  The circuit that is believed to be capable of employing synpatic logic is set to go commerical in less than 2 years. DARPA and several other organizations are already planning on building supercomputers from said circuit, hopefully the blue brain project get one once they get them up and running. Life extension is a given in the next three decades and is only the tip of the iceberg.

Simply replace organs with synthetic ones?  You mean, like an artificial brain?  Unless we can keep the brain functional at a reasonable level permanently, replacing other organs won't mean much.  

I think there will be slow improvement in the average human lifespan.  Add a few years with medical advances.  But as I said before, the maximum lifespan is pretty fixed and built into our DNA and not something that can be altered without a major new discovery, which could occur, but I'm skeptical.  Predictions of the future are almost always as wrong as they can be.

And the idea that scientific advances are getting exponentially faster is probably wrong.  In the field of physics, as pointed out in "The Trouble with Physics", a book by Lee Smolin, the last few decades have been the first in the past 200 years that major scientific breakthroughs haven't occurred.  Think about that.  He wrote, "But today, despite our best efforts, what we know for certain about the laws of nature is no more than what we knew back in the 1970's."  What happened was that theoretical physicists became enamored with string theory, which may or may not reflect the underlying basis of all particles and forces, but appears to be unprovable, and seems incapable of making scientific predictions.  All the bright young physicists devoted their careers to string theory, which was the only way to get an academic job, and it's all come to nothing so far.  So let's be a little modest about predicting how science will progress, especially with regard to things as complicated as the human body.

Quote from: "Wilson"Simply replace organs with synthetic ones?  You mean, like an artificial brain?  Unless we can keep the brain functional at a reasonable level permanently, replacing other organs won't mean much.  

I think there will be slow improvement in the average human lifespan.  Add a few years with medical advances.  But as I said before, the maximum lifespan is pretty fixed and built into our DNA and not something that can be altered without a major new discovery, which could occur, but I'm skeptical.  Predictions of the future are almost always as wrong as they can be.

And the idea that scientific advances are getting exponentially faster is probably wrong.  In the field of physics, as pointed out in "The Trouble with Physics", a book by Lee Smolin, the last few decades have been the first in the past 200 years that major scientific breakthroughs haven't occurred.  Think about that.  He wrote, "But today, despite our best efforts, what we know for certain about the laws of nature is no more than what we knew back in the 1970's."  What happened was that theoretical physicists became enamored with string theory, which may or may not reflect the underlying basis of all particles and forces, but appears to be unprovable, and seems incapable of making scientific predictions.  All the bright young physicists devoted their careers to string theory, which was the only way to get an academic job, and it's all come to nothing so far.  So let's be a little modest about predicting how science will progress, especially with regard to things as complicated as the human body.

Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... -universe/ (http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/11/recycled-universe/)

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... exoplanet/ (http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/real-habitable-exoplanet/)

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/ ... etic-life/ (http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/05/scientists-create-first-self-replicating-synthetic-life/)

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2008/04/scientists-prov/ (http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2008/04/scientists-prov/)

http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors ... tor-inside (http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/memristor-inside)

[youtube:1s5wavmv]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER-UqbGQjbU[/youtube:1s5wavmv]

Quote from: "Ultima22689"Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

Ah .. links to the internet are the gospel and books are second class citizens?  Did not know that.

I didn't say that there won't continue to be scientific advances.  Of course there will.  But, for example, the idea that the universe may be recycled is so speculative and probably unprovable that they are more interesting than useful .. and very likely wrong.  Physicists are always proposing new concepts which sound plausible at first .. and then most of them get shot down.  That's the nature of the beast.  

Here's a little chronology in quarter century increments.  Unfortunately, it's only from that book I mentioned earlier so has to be taken with a grain of salt, since it's only printed material, paraphrased.

1830-1855.  Faraday's concept that forces are conveyed by fields
1855-1880.  Maxwell unified electricity and magnetism, explained light as an electromagnetic wave.  Clausius introduced the notion of entropy.
1880-1905.  Electrons and X-rays discovered.  Max Planck developed the formula for the thermal properties of radiation.
1905-1930.  Einstein's special theory of relativity.  Wave-particle duality.
1930-1955.  Einstein's general theory of relativity.  Findings that we live in an expanding universe.  Quantum theory.  Understanding of the structure of atoms.  Discovery of many elementary particles.  Understanding that there are only four forces - electromagnetism gravity, strong and weak nuclear forces.  Big bang theory.
1955-1980.  Standard model of elementary particle physics - quarks, gluons, etc.  Hawking radiation.  Inflationary theory by Guth (1981).

Then things ground to a halt.  

Anyway, I find all that fascinating.

Now maybe it's because the relatively easy stuff has been done, and a slowdown is to be expected.  My point is that we can't count on huge breakthroughs to proceed at breakneck speed.  Maybe that's a little off the subject.  There are exciting developments going on and I don't want to minimize them.  But it's folly to assume that extension of the maximum life span of our species will be extended dramatically anytime soon.  Possible but unlikely.  Trust me on this.

Incidentally, I knew a fellow about 40 years ago who went to medical school for the specific purpose of learning how to live as long as possible.  Never planned to practice medicine.  His conclusion was that castration was the answer.  I assume he never followed through on that theory.  I hope not, because I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't have helped.

Quote from: "Wilson"

Quote from: "Ultima22689"Memristor, nough said but that wouldn't be fair really would it? There have been TONS of scientific breakthroughs in 2010 alone. Craig Venter's work? Our knowledge of the universe has expanded much, from exoplanets to recent findings that the universe may be recycled and something more relevant, in 2010 a working cybernetic arm was created. I could link many more, they may not add new laws to physics but these are scientific breakthroughs. I mean no offense in the slightest but may I suggest looking some stuff up instead of quoting a book?

Ah .. links to the internet are the gospel and books are second class citizens?  Did not know that.

I didn't say that there won't continue to be scientific advances.  Of course there will.  But, for example, the idea that the universe may be recycled is so speculative and probably unprovable that they are more interesting than useful .. and very likely wrong.  Physicists are always proposing new concepts which sound plausible at first .. and then most of them get shot down.  That's the nature of the beast.  

Here's a little chronology in quarter century increments.  Unfortunately, it's only from that book I mentioned earlier so has to be taken with a grain of salt, since it's only printed material, paraphrased.

1830-1855.  Faraday's concept that forces are conveyed by fields
1855-1880.  Maxwell unified electricity and magnetism, explained light as an electromagnetic wave.  Clausius introduced the notion of entropy.
1880-1905.  Electrons and X-rays discovered.  Max Planck developed the formula for the thermal properties of radiation.
1905-1930.  Einstein's special theory of relativity.  Wave-particle duality.
1930-1955.  Einstein's general theory of relativity.  Findings that we live in an expanding universe.  Quantum theory.  Understanding of the structure of atoms.  Discovery of many elementary particles.  Understanding that there are only four forces - electromagnetism gravity, strong and weak nuclear forces.  Big bang theory.
1955-1980.  Standard model of elementary particle physics - quarks, gluons, etc.  Hawking radiation.  Inflationary theory by Guth (1981).

Then things ground to a halt.  

Anyway, I find all that fascinating.

Now maybe it's because the relatively easy stuff has been done, and a slowdown is to be expected.  My point is that we can't count on huge breakthroughs to proceed at breakneck speed.  Maybe that's a little off the subject.  There are exciting developments going on and I don't want to minimize them.  But it's folly to assume that extension of the maximum life span of our species will be extended dramatically anytime soon.  Possible but unlikely.  Trust me on this.

Incidentally, I knew a fellow about 40 years ago who went to medical school for the specific purpose of learning how to live as long as possible.  Never planned to practice medicine.  His conclusion was that castration was the answer.  I assume he never followed through on that theory.  I hope not, because I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't have helped.

I simply meant, don't go to one single book, if you had several things saying the same thing instead of quoting one author I wouldn't have even mentioned the book thing. Books are great,

Sure, you are right, we can't expect major brekatrhroughs to constantly happen  but i'm not talking about breakthroughs like you are. Transhumanism depends on the advancement of technology, not our understand of the universe when I say replacing the body with synthetics I mean advanced technology modeled after the human body, electronic brain, cybernetic bodies is what i'm referring to, not some magical panacea that will somehow make our DNA super. By enhancing the human body with technology, literally or leaving the biology altogether will we obtain vastly extended life spans if not indefinite ones.  So in that regard, there have been many scientific breakthroughs and many more are to follow.

3.
any significant or sudden advance, development, achievement, or increase, as in scientific knowledge or diplomacy, that removes a barrier to progress: The jet engine was a major breakthrough in air transport.

That is from the dictionary, a scientific breakthrough doesn't have to be a major eureka moment in our understanding of physics and the universe. THe memristor was the eureka moment for technology when HP accidently found it in 2008. While I haven't gone this far, many people are calling Leon Chua a modern Albert Einstein because memristors will most likely change everything. So, regardless of the advancement of our understanding of the universe, that knowledge is mostly irrelevant to the advancement of technology, specifically information technology which seems to be driving the transhumanist movemement at the moment.