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General => Science => Topic started by: Recusant on July 18, 2010, 02:34:47 PM

Title: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Recusant on July 18, 2010, 02:34:47 PM
QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here (http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/?page=full).
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Tank on July 18, 2010, 04:11:12 PM
Quote from: "Recusant"
QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here (http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/?page=full).
All too familiar unfortunately. Just goes to show you can take a moron to knowledge but you can't make them think. How much of this has been caused by the Internet and the apparent dilution of knowledge? In days gone by when there was not a Tera byte of information available at a flick of a switch people had to learn, they don't have to so now. The Internet has done to research what the calculator did for Maths, made everybody think it was easy  :sigh:
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: elliebean on July 18, 2010, 04:58:39 PM
This is why effective propaganda is almost always an appeal to emotion.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Tank on July 18, 2010, 05:12:23 PM
Quote from: "elliebean"This is why effective propaganda is almost always an appeal to emotion.
Undoubtedly, I did some negotiation courses once and emotion was always the top pressure point. It does get over played though.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: elliebean on July 18, 2010, 05:36:25 PM
True. Fear gets especially overplayed in this country.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Dretlin on July 18, 2010, 06:02:33 PM
Quote from: "Recusant"
QuoteIn the end, truth will out. Won’t it?

Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It’s this: Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

 :rant:

Full article here (http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/?page=full).

Well, that is deeply unsettling and disturbing in equal measures.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Squid on July 18, 2010, 06:27:06 PM
Sad but it does seem to explain a lot.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: SSY on July 18, 2010, 11:06:46 PM
I suffer from it myself, it's a constant struggle to remind myself and try to remain objective. It's the worse with sports, some people can do anything terrible and still keep my ardent support.

As long as I remain convinced of my own fallibility I think I should be harmless.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: The Magic Pudding on July 19, 2010, 02:51:01 AM
When I see from a distance, Obama being blamed for his countries woes, I'm left dumbfounded.

Must be hard using reason, particularly when someone’s education, sophistication and intelligence can be held against them.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: wildfire_emissary on July 19, 2010, 03:55:16 AM
Or they find ways, ludicrous even, to justify their misinformation.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Recusant on July 19, 2010, 04:49:06 AM
Quote from: "SSY"As long as I remain convinced of my own fallibility I think I should be harmless.

This is the crucial difference.  It's the ability to admit that one was wrong which is what the people this article is talking about are lacking:

QuoteThe problem is that sometimes the things they think they know are objectively, provably false. And in the presence of the correct information, such people react very, very differently than the merely uninformed. Instead of changing their minds to reflect the correct information, they can entrench themselves even deeper.

“The general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on the Michigan study. The phenomenon â€" known as “backfire” â€" is “a natural defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.”

And this is a very important point as well:

Quote...disturbingly, the ones who were the most confident they were right were by and large the ones who knew the least about the topic.

The desire to learn the facts, regardless of how those facts may conflict with beliefs, and in light of those fact to disabuse oneself of false beliefs is apparently relatively rare.  Though the article focuses on political beliefs, I couldn't help seeing a strong correlation with religious belief as I read it.  Many times in this forum, clear and concise presentations of fact are given in response to statements of belief backed up by misinformation. (Or belief baldly stated with no backing at all.) I know that eventually some people come around, because there are several members here who were once devout believers, but off the top of my head I can't think of a single instance where (for example) a Creationist member actually admitted: "You know, I had not been aware of that: It changes how I see the subject.  Maybe I was wrong." I think that the phenomenon which is the subject of the article is something we encounter here on a regular basis.  It's not surprising though; the strength of many people's political belief is second only to their religious belief.  I found it fascinating that the phenomenon had been studied and that what we so often see happen here when a believer is faced with facts contrary to their belief has been confirmed by the studies.

My view is similar to yours, SSY; I've been wrong too many times in my life (about things which were very important to me) to get too bent out of shape when it happens yet again.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Tank on July 19, 2010, 08:02:19 AM
Sometimes (often) the assertions I make look bull headed, at least I think they do, but underneath is always a small grain of salt reminding me I don't know it all and therefore should be prepared to re-evaluate what I think based on finding out something I didn't know before. This is why I hate preachers and dogmatists more than any other people  :rant:
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Squid on July 19, 2010, 02:41:16 PM
I think another thing which may play a part in relation to admitting being wrong is the idea of credibility to others.  That is, if I'm wrong about one thing than people will think that I wrong about everything, which is a very hasty generalization but nonetheless I think it can be an intrinsic motivator to "never be wrong".  I've been wrong before and have been reluctant to admit it but I've gotten better at it.  In some debates I've even had the ability to acknowledge my mistake and move on...but it's very difficult to do - we have a natural dislike for being incorrect.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Thumpalumpacus on July 19, 2010, 04:24:01 PM
Yeah, I had heated discussion about this with my son yesterday, when he was claiming to know something he clearly didn't know.

"Knowledge" is the surest impediment to learning.

Also, fwiw, Squid, I understand what you're saying, but when someone admits error freely and takes measures to correct themselves, it buttresses their credibility as far as I'm concerned.  I give little credence to someone who is certain of everything.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Martin TK on July 19, 2010, 07:08:31 PM
I've said that before, but I had a theist once told me that no matter how much information or facts that he is confronted with, he will NEVER stop believing in god and the bible.  Even if we are able to prove that there is absolutely NO god, he will chose to continue to believe.  Now that's hardcore. :crazy:
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: pinkocommie on July 19, 2010, 09:02:11 PM
Quote from: "Martin TK"I've said that before, but I had a theist once told me that no matter how much information or facts that he is confronted with, he will NEVER stop believing in god and the bible.  Even if we are able to prove that there is absolutely NO god, he will chose to continue to believe.  Now that's hardcore. :crazy:

What I find strange is the cultural phenomenon that regards this kind of blind and unshakable belief as a positive attribute.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Tank on July 19, 2010, 10:25:57 PM
Quote from: "pinkocommie"
Quote from: "Martin TK"I've said that before, but I had a theist once told me that no matter how much information or facts that he is confronted with, he will NEVER stop believing in god and the bible.  Even if we are able to prove that there is absolutely NO god, he will chose to continue to believe.  Now that's hardcore. :crazy:

What I find strange is the cultural phenomenon that regards this kind of blind and unshakable belief as a positive attribute.
It's not surprising really. Unquestioning loyalty has always been highly valued in tribal situations. Religions are just big tribes and God is the ultimate tribal chief.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: KebertX on July 20, 2010, 12:32:44 AM
(https://www.happyatheistforum.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Femergencyblanket.files.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F02%2Fca230_1trever.gif&hash=10b22461d2ccc0be0962d74d96f58faac5b45850)

God people are fucking ignorant... I already knew the basic principle behind that article. Once you've logically determined that someone's argument is nothing but a stream of delusions, there's nowhere to go. When someone believes that the president is conducting a socialist takeover of the country, you can show them the facts, prove that's not the case, and then wait for them to determine that you're a brainwashed sleeper agent doing the bidding of your Nazi president.  You can't win.

Creationists are the worst sort of religious believers. They think that there is some sort of moral imperative in believing the world is 6000 years old. And all of science is just a conspiracy to steal power from their church.  It's insanity, but all the facts that prove them wrong just confirm how powerful the conspiracy is!

[youtube:361m6tt9]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nj587d5ies[/youtube:361m6tt9]

It's like the Flat Earth society, any bit of information that proves the Earth is round is just another part of the conspiracy. They turn it around and convince themselves that you're the ignorant one who's living in a delusional fantasy world.

Lot's of people are so ignorant, and they think their own opinions are infallible.
Title: Re: Confirmation Bias +
Post by: Martin TK on July 20, 2010, 02:12:11 AM
Quote from: "KebertX"(https://www.happyatheistforum.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Femergencyblanket.files.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F02%2Fca230_1trever.gif&hash=10b22461d2ccc0be0962d74d96f58faac5b45850)

God people are fucking ignorant... I already knew the basic principle behind that article. Once you've logically determined that someone's argument is nothing but a stream of delusions, there's nowhere to go. When someone believes that the president is conducting a socialist takeover of the country, you can show them the facts, prove that's not the case, and then wait for them to determine that you're a brainwashed sleeper agent doing the bidding of your Nazi president.  You can't win.

Creationists are the worst sort of religious believers. They think that there is some sort of moral imperative in believing the world is 6000 years old. And all of science is just a conspiracy to steal power from their church.  It's insanity, but all the facts that prove them wrong just confirm how powerful the conspiracy is!

[youtube:1cr87nte]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nj587d5ies[/youtube:1cr87nte]

It's like the Flat Earth society, any bit of information that proves the Earth is round is just another part of the conspiracy. They turn it around and convince themselves that you're the ignorant one who's living in a delusional fantasy world.

Lot's of people are so ignorant, and they think their own opinions are infallible.

Unfortunately, what you are saying is so true, and it hurts my brain when I am am confronted by this amazing ignorance and inability to see the truth.  The dogma is staggering.  How people can be so easily manipulated drives me mad.