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General => Politics => Topic started by: Tank on February 24, 2022, 09:39:43 AM

Title: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on February 24, 2022, 09:39:43 AM
24th February 2022 Russian troops invade Ukraine from Russia and Belrus. It is not yet known if Belarus troops are involved.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 24, 2022, 12:07:46 PM
well i was wrong. i thought he would stage a coup and install a puppet government.

this crude ww2-style invasion is not what i expected. apparently putin is intending to send a message to the rest of his ex-soviet neighbors
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Ecurb Noselrub on February 24, 2022, 03:38:07 PM
He says he will not occupy, but he is a liar so we don't know what he will do. He wants everyone to know what he can do, anytime he wants. Of course, the nations to the west are all NATO, so that will be interesting. If he goes into the Baltic states, NATO has to respond. An attack on one is an attack on all.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on February 24, 2022, 05:11:04 PM
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on February 24, 2022, 03:38:07 PM
He says he will not occupy, but he is a liar so we don't know what he will do. He wants everyone to know what he can do, anytime he wants. Of course, the nations to the west are all NATO, so that will be interesting. If he goes into the Baltic states, NATO has to respond. An attack on one is an attack on all.

The Baltic states are also part of the EU so it is a very different ball game.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: viocjit on February 24, 2022, 05:40:35 PM
I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).

This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?

If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?

If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.

If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.

Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"


Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.

Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."

Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Ecurb Noselrub on February 24, 2022, 08:03:22 PM
Ukraine is not part of NATO or the EU.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: xSilverPhinx on February 25, 2022, 05:20:32 PM
IMO unless Putin pulls out of Ukraine willingly, it is unfortunately lost. However, I really hope that in addition to crippling sanctions imposed on Russia, the occupation will turn into a protracted war that will drain them financially and morally, without draining the other side too much. By the looks of it, invading a country was incredibly easy, I want to see if they have the kind of resources necessary to keep their troops there for a very long time.

I'm hoping the opposing side take Putin's actions and turn them into into major mistakes. If Putin does all he does and gets away with it, he wouldn't have made any.

Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 25, 2022, 06:33:03 PM
ukraine is lost politically. it had no friends willing to fight with it. but depending on the willingness of the west to continue supplying arms, putins occupation may become as bloody and unpopular as his afghan excursion.

all the attack helicopters in the world cannot defend against a man with a truckload of stinger shoulder mounted missiles to distribute.

same with russian armour. anti tank technology is equalized by somebody behind a tree with a javelin.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 25, 2022, 06:45:21 PM





these things are pretty effective at short ranges, and dont take a whole army infrastructure to operate. theyre perfect equalizers for partizans.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Icarus on February 26, 2022, 06:18:18 AM
^ Here's hoping that the Ukrainians have a good supply of those weapons.  They will almost surely lose the battles, but they may inflict a heavy price to the invaders.

One has to wonder whether the invaders are dedicated to the whims of what has recently appeared to be the demented state of their glorious leader. Stingers and Javelins will spell the demise of more than a few of the invaders. Ukrainian citizens are making Molatov cocktails and firing small arms toward the invaders.   How about the Russian families who must mourn the loss of their loved ones?  Will that matter?
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 26, 2022, 06:54:15 AM
when the kids started coming back from afghanistan in body bags it made a difference. especially the ones who had been skinned alive
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 27, 2022, 06:57:32 PM
well, russia still is winning, but it seems that they are not winning as rapidly as they had expected.

there are videos of russian armour stalled on the roadside, out of fuel.

if your tank runs out of fuel during an attack, somebody miscalculated.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Ecurb Noselrub on February 27, 2022, 07:23:27 PM
The two sides are going to talk at the border. I hope some deal acceptable to Ukraine can be worked out so the fighting will stop. Putin is evil.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 27, 2022, 08:10:52 PM
putin will offer an ultimatum. a quick surrender of ukraine is what he wants, before his campaign unravels. already its experiencing logistics problems, and logistics are what wins or loses campaigns.

apparently putin didnt expect such resistance. some of his tanks are running out of fuel. that is a MAJOR miscalculation, because a stalled tank is both worthless to him, and useful to his oppositin if they can pour in a can of fuel and drive away with it. and if he miscalulated his supply lines for one tank, he probably miscalculated his supply lines for a lot more.

things are changinf rapidly. putins oligarchs are already complaining about their portfolios. whether he pays attention to them or not is up in the air, but we wont know for an other two or three days.

and its putin that has to maintain an offensive. all the ukrainians have to do is hold on.

in the meantime, sweden--sweden -- is sending 5000 antitank missiles to ukraine. its got to be serious when sweden takes sides.

Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on February 27, 2022, 08:38:42 PM
the internet has made this a very different war.

the ukrainians are posting the names of russian soldiers they have killed or captured on the net, so that their families can look them up and see what has become of their kids.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Recusant on February 28, 2022, 04:51:00 AM
The good part of this story is the Ukrainian response: "That's $3 billion you owe us, shitheads."

"World's largest plane destroyed in Ukraine" | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/antonov-an-225-largest-plane-destroyed-ukraine-scli-intl/index.html)

QuoteThe world's largest aircraft, the Antonov AN-225, has been destroyed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, generating alarm and sadness among the aviation world in which it occupies almost cult status.

The enormous aircraft, named "Mriya," or "dream" in Ukrainian, was parked at an airfield near Kyiv when it was attacked by "Russian occupants," Ukrainian authorities said, adding that they would rebuild the plane.

"Russia may have destroyed our 'Mriya'. But they will never be able to destroy our dream of a strong, free and democratic European state. We shall prevail!" wrote Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Twitter.

There has been no independent confirmation of the aircraft's destruction. A tweet from the Antonov Company said it could not verify the "technical condition" of the aircraft until it had been inspected by experts.

Ukrainian state defense company Ukroboronprom, which manages Antonov, on Sunday issued a statement saying the aircraft had been destroyed but would be rebuilt at Russia's expense -- a cost it put at $3 billion.

"The restoration is estimated to take over 3 billion USD and over five years," the statement said. "Our task is to ensure that these costs are covered by the Russian Federation, which has caused intentional damage to Ukraine's aviation and the air cargo sector.

[Continues . . . (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/antonov-an-225-largest-plane-destroyed-ukraine-scli-intl/index.html)]
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tom62 on February 28, 2022, 06:21:23 AM
The EU is sending money, weapons and supplies to the Ukraine as well as imposing strong sanctions against Russia. I'm not sure that would be enough. Maybe Biden and Johnson should take a stronger stance. After all the USA and Britain were the ones who signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 with Russia that included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Bad Penny II on March 01, 2022, 09:16:24 AM
They just don't like us in this neighbourhood.

You skinned three local dogs and hung them from your tree.

They sway pleasingly in the wind.

You poisoned three cats and nailed them to your fence.

They didn't show me appropriate deference, they do now.

You strew broken glass through the children's play area.

Yes, it was noticed too soon by your helicopter parents, I should have hid it in the sandpit, glued some bits to the climbing equipment.

I think we have some cultural differences.

You just don't like us.

No, I just don't like you.



Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Ecurb Noselrub on March 02, 2022, 04:52:55 PM
It will take Russia and Russians a long time to dig out of this hole. They will not be welcomed anywhere in the West.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Recusant on March 03, 2022, 05:05:21 AM
Quote from: Bad Penny II on March 01, 2022, 09:16:24 AM
They just don't like us in this neighbourhood.

You skinned three local dogs and hung them from your tree.

They sway pleasingly in the wind.

You poisoned three cats and nailed them to your fence.

They didn't show me appropriate deference, they do now.

You strew broken glass through the children's play area.

Yes, it was noticed too soon by your helicopter parents, I should have hid it in the sandpit, glued some bits to the climbing equipment.

I think we have some cultural differences.

You just don't like us.

No, I just don't like you.





:en route: :smokin cool:

Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 03, 2022, 11:30:23 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fiona-hill-warns-putin-would-use-nuclear-weapons-if-he-has-an-instrument-he-wants-to-use-it-11646155410

fiona hill is one of britains best exports to the states.

in this very sobering interview she discusses her view of putins war and what may come next.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Dark Lightning on March 03, 2022, 03:59:25 PM
If he uses nukes in Ukraine, he's fouling his own nest as well. That may not mean as much to him. Russia is a big enough land mass that the dirty areas can be avoided. I sure hope he gets muzzled by his military leaders, first.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 06, 2022, 10:43:12 PM
well, we all have a problem.

putin is not going to pacify ukraine, so very soon he will begin the chechnya playbook, which is to bomb the country to smithereens. something like 8000 civilians were killed in grozny, and we re headed there.

this technique will end organized resistance in ukraine, and harden the animosity of every ukrainian citizen. so we re looking at a protracted guerrilla war against an occupying force which will likely not end quickly.

nato and the EU will continue to arm the ukrainian resistance, because it is obvious that there is no alternative, else putin will roll over all of europe in order to recreate his view of russias rightful empire.

eventually the ukrainians will use adjacent nato countries to stage attacks in ukraine. putin will announce this is nato participation, and he will bomb th eukrainians in a nato country.

this will be a declaration of war between nato and russia, and there will be a land war in europe, at first with conventional weapons.

because the russians cant fight a war against anything except their own people, the land war will go badly for putin.

then putin will use tactical nukes against ukrainian or nato forces, something which the russians have always said they are willing to do.

from there we either all see reality, or we all go up in flames. i have no idea what will happen from this point on, as my crystal ball goes suddenly foggy.

but with 6000 ICBMs, putin has more than enough warheads to make a dent in th epopulations of europe and north america, should he go postal. and he has no compunctions abouit killing large numbers of non-combatants.

remember, you saw it here first.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 07, 2022, 12:20:40 AM
just sayin, i'd be really happy if somebody disagreed with me here.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Dark Lightning on March 07, 2022, 12:24:29 AM
When I worked in defense, I had co-workers who were graduates of the War College. Too bad I'm not still working, as I could get a good idea of expectations. I think Putin is just bluffing about nukes. I have nothing to base that on but wishful thinking.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Icarus on March 08, 2022, 03:44:49 AM
M.A.D. is the abbreviation of the term, Mutually Assured Destruction.  France, the UK and the US have nukes and the vehicles to deliver them.  Of course so does Pakistan, India, China, and North Korea.  Iran is busy working on that capacity and it is uncertain whether Israel has nuclear weapons.

Is Putin sufficiently deranged to imagine that his Russia would not also be reduced to rubble?  I fear that he may very well be so deranged as to bring about the end of the world as we know it.  Would his military and top advisors stop him from pushing the red button? Let us hope so.  To gamble on the eventual outcome is a pretty serious bet.

I do not believe that the western world is inhabited by pussies. I reckon that they are weighing the options rather carefully and suspiciously of the Russian madman. We will probably know the outcome withing the next 30,60,90 days.  I live within 40 miles of the national strategic command center for the US.  A sure target if things get out of control. 

Not a word has been said about our preparations for Nuclear conflict.  I do dearly hope that we and our nuclear capable allies have quietly gone into prep mode. If I am to be incinerated, then I want, dearly,  to take many of the enemy with me, to dwell forever in Valhalla.

If God is interfering here, maybe he/she/it has had enough of our humans fuck ups. Global warming would be much diminished after a hundred years or so. 

Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Ecurb Noselrub on March 09, 2022, 06:55:42 PM
Agree, except it is absolutely certain that Israel has nukes. I am sure we are ready in the unimaginable eventuality that Russia uses WMD. Our submarine fleet can strike strategically and our air power is unmatched, even if Russia is capable of wiping out our land-based missiles with a hypersonic strike. Russia would be annihilated, so you will meet lots of Ruskies in Valhalla. 
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 09, 2022, 10:28:25 PM
im thinking russia will use very small tactical  tank or artillery launched nukes on the ukrainians, and dare the world to object. they are not covered by treaties. putin screwed this up and needs to up the ante.

this whole thing seems to be the last gasp of tbe 20th century-- if putin is driven back. if not, it means tbe 21st century will be a repeat.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tom62 on March 10, 2022, 12:02:36 PM
I think that Russia will use their thermobaric weapons. The effects of that weapon are devastating.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 11, 2022, 02:18:27 PM
well i guess its time to take some sort of stand.

china has refused to condemn the russian invasion or even acknowledge what is happening there. henceforth i will no longer purchase anything made in china, so far as i am aware.

i dont expect to be perfect in this, but it is my intent not to have any of my money go to therm

this was the last straw;

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-biological-weapons-china-39eeee023efdf7ea59c4a20b7e018169
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Dark Lightning on March 11, 2022, 02:38:24 PM
I've always tried not to buy goods made in China, because it's usually shit. This isn't helping. I feel sorry for the people of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 11, 2022, 11:06:03 PM
thechinese areverygood at some thi gs.

but im cutting out metals, tools, household items, clothing (if any) hats shoes officesupplies

whatevdr

pens and pencils

electronics

dim sum
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Icarus on March 12, 2022, 02:31:31 AM
We have our very own, capable, sorcerers who do not need Ukrainians to help develop bio weapons.

The notion of having migratory birds transmit the biologicals is far fetched horse shit dreamed up by sick and desperate minds. 

Someone has gone back in time to embrace an old and corny joke with a moral.. The claimed bio will be transmitted by bird shit one would presume.........The joke is that you should never mess with the Foo bird.  If you offend him he will shit on your arm. If you try to wipe or wash off the foo shit, you will experience unbearable, fiery, pain. You are best advised to leave it in place, on your arm. The moral to the story is: If the Foo shits, wear it.



Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Recusant on March 12, 2022, 08:46:07 AM
The accusation works well for Russia though, if they choose to unleash biological weapons against Ukraine. Just strike any random building in the middle of a city with both conventional and biological weapons, then claim that it must have been a secret laboratory, and the Ukrainians are being killed by their own bioweapons.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 12, 2022, 12:13:42 PM
remember the incendiary bats of ww2?

possibly apocryphal.

the japanese used biological vectors to distribute plague in china.

if youre ever thinking that the japanese were treated harshly at hiroshima and nagasaki, do some reading on unit 731.

war brings out thw worst in human beings
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 19, 2022, 02:42:51 PM
well heres a recap for the end of the world, i guess

russia has reverted to type, and has become a totalitarian state bent on empire. they do this every hundred years or so?

putin has misjudged his military, the west, his own preparedness for isolation, and the determination of his neighbors. the post cold war bubble has burst. or rather, it burst back in the 1990s, and the west was too invested in making money out of russia and the temporary world order to see the warning signs. russia has made a play for empire using conventional weapons, and has stalled. ukraine cannot win politically or militarily, but can do a finland, maybe, and drive the russians out while not losing all of their country.


so there is crossroads ahead:

-- putin declares some kind of victory and leaves ukraine after extracting concessions, and we enter a new world order

-- putin uses tactical nukes/chemicals to win militarily, and we enter a new world order

-- putin makes a mistake by entangling NATO, and we have a broader war and a new world order

-- putin goes postal with ICBMs and any new world order is irrelevant

the common denominator is that we're back in the cold war, no matter what happens, with everybody's fingers tapping nervously next to th enuclear buttons. how long will putin tolerate the economic ruin of his country before he decides he has nothing to lose and ups the ante? when he does place the bet, how high will he go?

when i was a teenager i expected to be blown up before i became an adult. now that im an adult i t seems that my prediction wasnt wrong, just delayed.

Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: jumbojak on March 19, 2022, 06:35:50 PM
As of right now, given the stack against them, the Ukrainians are winning the war. At this point their main goal should be to avoid defeat and, thanks largely to the incompetence of the Russian military, they are doing very well on that front.

It's hard to believe that the Russians are fighting the way they have up to now. Their inability to utilize the technology they flouted for years is really incredible. Special forces making daylight raids against defended areas and getting absolutely thwacked was truly amazing. For years the Russian propaganda machine toured their night vision capabilities but it seems they left them on the shelf for fear they might be broken and never bothered training anyone in how to use any of it.

It's a lot like 1914 right now. Instead of running out of rifles and boots and artillery shells they are unable to use the equipment of a modern war. But the story seems the same. In some respects they don't have what they need and what they do have they are unable or unwilling to use. So now they are taking heavy casualties because of failures to plan.

Hopefully there is a deescalation. If the Russians grow desperate enough to up the ante from here it could turn very bad very quickly.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on March 19, 2022, 07:33:34 PM
i dont see putin willing to de-escalate.

what does he gain, personally?




of course, theres always th epossibility that he will be removed from power.

cant gauge th eprobabilities of that. so far, his disinformation teams control the public narrative. it would have to be one of his buddies who removes him, and that doesnt seem likely.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Icarus on March 21, 2022, 05:29:52 AM
Cyber hackers like Anonymous, Squad 303, and some damned clever Ukrainian cyber wizard's are fighting back against Putin and his minions. Some American cyber dudes have joined the fray.
Disrupting such fundamentals like Russian TV and internet will be the undoing of the savage Putin in the long run.  In the meantime we, and mostly the Ukrainians, are suffering the result of the madman's war.

Will the Russians soon run out of munitions such as the ones being used to reduce Mariupol to ruins while murdering thousands of innocent citizens?

The U.S., Germany, UK, and others are supplying munitions to the Ukrainians. One must wonder whether we and they are setting ourselves up for a lack of defensive or offensive weaponry.

   
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on April 09, 2022, 04:37:07 PM
iraq, not ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC-rE2pSq1E

in america the invasion of iraq is not questioned. the locals phrase the invasion of a country which had not attacked the united states as "defending our freedom . . ." as if saddam hussein had been capable of threatening it.

in america, our enemies are actually within

at any rate, im wondering about the parallels between the united states invading iraq in 2003 with putin's war against the ukraine. putin is a butcher, without a doubt. but just how similar is his rationale for his invasion to what we in america did not so long ago?

politically iraq was a disaster. removing the odious saddam hussein allowed isis to appear and grow, and upset the balance of power in the region that was soon filled by iran, which has proven a far more dangerous mischief-maker. i recall this was not a secret, and was predicted well beforehand.

in the ukraine, in my opinion, putin needs to be stopped short as soon as possible, but that isnt going to happen.

my predictions:

-- putin will regroup under different military commanders and squash the dornbos, partitioning the ukraine into russian vassals in the east and a weakened ukrainian republic.

-- putin will murder many more civiiians and deport large numbers of them into a new gulag in the east as hostages

- he will declare victory, and claim any continuing ukrainian attacks as unprovoked aggression while he exploits th eindustrial and mining centers in the south and east of the ukraine

- in a few more years, he will repeat 2022 on the rest of the ukraine. unless thwarted now.

none of ^^^this is certain, and can be modified by the western sanctions draining putin of money he needs to pursue this plan, by a regime change in russia, or by a miracle on the ground in the ukraine.

in th eend, putin will not win. but neither will the ukraine.

globally, the sanctions will impverish russia and turn it into a welfare state dependent on china. this is well within china's interest in dominating th epacific while keeping russia on life support to distract the west and absorb its political will there. chine, russia, and various small totalitarian allies will form a political bloc to counter the western democracies, and will be alternately aided and hindered by the shifting whims of the nonaligned nations in africa, asia and the neotropics, as well as india.

we're looking at a new cold war, with new players and a new playing field.

all statred out by putin's delusions of his own hegemony and a war in the ukraine.

thank you for listening.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tom62 on April 10, 2022, 06:37:40 AM
^that reminds me of the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times".
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on April 26, 2022, 05:15:28 PM
dropped off a load of steel tubing in chicago. they had a long crate in tje yard. went over and read the label



wont be many more of these for awhole. no indication of which plant it came from. i wad curious as to whethrr it was mariupol, but no way to tell
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: viocjit on May 30, 2022, 06:53:53 PM
Who's there is interest to give money to Ukrainian forces ? It's legal to do so in the majority of countries of the world.

Who's there is interest to write emails (Or letters and why not a public one) to politicians in European Union/AU/CA/CH/JP/NO/NZ/SG/UK/US (Not forget others countries that put sanctions) to suggest them new ideas of sanctions against Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus ?

When I say politicians in European Union. I'm speaking about those working for countries member of this union and those working in European institutions.

There are many potential targets like MP of national parliaments and MP of European parliament.
There are also head of states , prime ministers (Vice-president in some countries , some countries have one vice-prime minister or more) , members of governments , people (Businessmen for example) for which we know they have links with a person of interest (A MP in a national parliament for example) because these people can potentially influence people of interests.

I listed only a fraction of potential targets for which we can send emails or letters.
It's better to write to politicians of a country if you're a citizen of this country.
It's better to write to politicians working in European institutions such European commission if you're a citizen of an EU state.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on August 21, 2022, 10:48:24 AM
Darya Dugina: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow blast (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62621509)

"The daughter of a close ally of Russia's President Vladimir Putin has been killed in a suspected car bomb.

Darya Dugina died after an explosion on a road outside Moscow, Russia's investigative committee said.

It is thought her father, the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin who is known as "Putin's brain," may have been the intended target of the attack.

Mr Dugin is a prominent ultra-nationalist ideologue who is believed to be close to the Russian president."

Assassination attempt.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on August 21, 2022, 04:37:36 PM
bringing the war home to moscow is an inevitable step in stopping it.

so far the war has been far away  for the russian general populace and putin has cpntrolled the narrative.

i deny that any war is not terrorism, so i am not disturbed at this new development.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on August 22, 2022, 08:55:01 AM
By bringing the war to Moscow, it will go nuclear. Maybe even before that - the Russian government only needs to legitimise a threat to the existence of Russia in order to proceed. I have little doubt they will manage that long before the war reaches their capital.

It's too bad that Ukraine has to fight for "the lot of us" as alone as they are, but going against a nuclear power, as foreign in their approach to the value of human life, individual and group rights and duties as they are to "us" in the West, I think winning a proxy war is the best we can hope for.

I think it can be won, though for all practical purposes, it is likely to cost "us" Ukraine - or much of it, at least. Russia is tenacious. They won't pack their gear and fuck the fuck off on their own unless their leadership changes several times, I think. For that, we are talking decades. Potentially, many decades. Driving them out... For Ukraine alone (Yes, yes, even with "our" fancy rockets) it's a tall order.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on August 22, 2022, 10:35:49 AM
If it does go Nuclear and it may Russia will be totally fucked while Putin remains in charge.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on August 22, 2022, 11:41:34 AM
More than Russia will be fucked in that case, which I assume the Russian leaders know and count on.

That said, I'm rapidly approaching my vote going to the "bring it on!" crowd. Just get this whole Russia and China thing over with - preferably India and Pakistan as well. I'm ready for my Fallout universe with chaingun wielding super mutants and feral ghouls and vault dwellers and, if statistics are to be believed, no me in it.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Icarus on August 23, 2022, 12:11:46 AM
 :shooty: May the Force protect us.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on August 23, 2022, 07:40:25 AM
Quote from: Icarus on August 23, 2022, 12:11:46 AM:shooty: May the Force protect us.

Not if Disney are in charge.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on August 23, 2022, 07:50:51 AM
Quote from: Tank on August 23, 2022, 07:40:25 AM
Quote from: Icarus on August 23, 2022, 12:11:46 AM:shooty: May the Force protect us.

Not if Disney are in charge.
This. It is true.  :sadnod:
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on September 10, 2022, 10:35:57 AM
Kharkiv offensive: Russia surprised as Ukraine takes several towns - UK (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62860774)

QuoteA Ukrainian advance near the eastern city of Kharkiv - which has recaptured several towns - has taken Russia "by surprise", UK defence officials say.

In a daily update, they said Kyiv's forces have advanced 50km (31 miles) into previously Russian-held territory.

The attack has also left thousands of Moscow's troops "increasingly isolated" near the key city of Izyum, they said.

On Friday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had retaken 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Some good news.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on September 10, 2022, 04:26:18 PM
I do hope Ukraine has what it takes - or will be given it - to kick Russia from out of her borders (That includes Crimea in my book)

They are doing well. No longer just "better than we could have hoped" - just... Well. May this trend continue.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on February 20, 2023, 10:37:01 AM
As we approach the first anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine President Biden visits Kiev.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on February 20, 2023, 12:33:52 PM
It's good, I think.

There are voices in the United States and Europe alike advocating for "not our war" approach. They do have a point in that war is expensive and by sending over our stocks of this and that and a boomstick, we leave ourselves with less for defence. They don't have a point - according to this """expert""" - in "let us not poke the bear." The bear has threatened us with nukes on many a "red line" already. Fuck the bear, I say. Literally and less-than-gently.

Thing is, I'm on the side of he who defends everything, defends nothing - so let us defend ourselves by making certain that Russia breaks its teeth on Ukraine, even if it means we're in it for the long haul. A world where a nation like Russia gets what it wants by rushing troops to the border... It is the world we lived in until a year ago. They took Crimea. They fucked with Georgia. On paper, they were quite the tiger. Let the paper tiger burn - may something better arise in its stead.

Hmm... I wonder if a parallel to WW2 era Japan is in order...

In any case, from my position, I'm grateful for the US support on behalf of all nations sharing a border with or actively in the crosshairs of Russia  - heck, even for the ever-waffling Germans and the "peace"-mongering French. I think the stakes are high enough in a bird's eye view to warrant that and more, and the rhetoric... Well, at least it is less pathetic than what Russian ministry of propaganda churns out.

Hashtag giveUkrainethedamnedfighterjets.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Old Seer on February 20, 2023, 02:25:35 PM
Suggestion:
Listen to a Col. Macgreggor and Scott Ritter on youtube. 
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on February 20, 2023, 02:55:32 PM
...So I looked up Ritter;

Quoteis an American author, pundit, former United States Marine Corps intelligence officer, former United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) weapons inspector, and convicted sex offender.

Not trying to throw shade on the man, since I have no idea who he is, it's just... One of those uh... Careers is not like the others. :snicker1:

I'm aware of the good colonel though. His predictions so far have held up about as well as his rhetoric, and although there is something to be said against flatly ignoring his position, this """"expert"""" does not see a way clear for Russia to claim anything close to a decisive military victory. Not in what has become a trench war, punctuated by artillery duels.

Russian military was impressive enough on paper, but has demonstrably shown to be woefully mismanaged, undertrained, underequipped and often lacking in professionalism, morale... Fucking flak jackets...

They say that quantity is its own quality. Well... Not really. A hundred artillery units shooting regular-dumb-shells blindly are hardly worth one precision system, actually hitting the target. From what I've seen, only one side in the war still employs precision munitions to great effect, and it's not Russia. Yes, they can level many an apartment building - what does that do for their war effort?

Quick [EDIT]: I think there are talking heads at both extremes, talking probably-trash about the war - whoever their preferred victor. It may be just me, but it has a certain sound of... Being for the audience. If their camp manages to scrape together the meagerest and/or most pyrrhic of strategic victories, they'll still prance around from podcast to podcast crowing about having predicted everything right. Well... I think they have about an equal chance of actually being so, with at-the-moment a slight advantage to the "Ukraine will win" camp, though I think their victory will have to be more than purely military in nature, so I wonder how much of it is analysing the actual war, and how much is choosing one's audience and running with it. I do try to follow content from every vector imaginable, including several "ministries of propaganda," and in my completely non-expert opinion, by far the best are those who just show what's going on without trying to predict some "grand plan," that won't survive past the next engagement anyways.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on May 09, 2023, 10:48:31 AM
We have a new word Russiophobia. Putin coined it in his May 8th Victory Day address in 2023.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 09, 2023, 11:11:44 AM
Did you see the thing though? I caught a bit of a live stream by an YouTuber I follow, and... It was sad. They had like one tank in the whole parade and it was a T34. "No" actual soldiers - just recruits. No aircraft of any kind. Did they lose like everything in Ukraine?! :lol:
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on May 09, 2023, 12:10:22 PM
I didn't watch it. I may well do now. Did you see a Russian Admiral was sacked because he refused to have his sailors taken from his ships and sent to the front line in Ukraine?
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 09, 2023, 12:30:31 PM
I have read it in an blog - wouldn't surprise me if true. There have been reports of ship crews, as in, not marines or such like - sailors, with barely any weapons or training in the use thereof in a trench warfare situation, being engaged in the unfolding disaster that is the ground invasion of Ukraine.

Still, you have to give the keyboard warriors their due; there are, for instance, those who try to seriously argue that Ukraines losses are greater than those of Russia because Russia fired more artillery shells. Ah, the cope is strong with the vatnik brigade!

Actually, I think it's a bit of a case of selective memory. Histoiry, it is a bit of a cyclical thing and Russia... Russia completely fucked up more wars than it won. They had their asses handed to them in Chechnya One by a fucking militia. That's the rival nation to NATO... Somehow.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 09, 2023, 01:04:09 PM
russia is a third world nation that has inherited nuclear weapons from a more competent ancestor.

the nukes are the sole reason russia hasnt been flattened by the peoples it attacks.

this nuclear extortion isnt going to end in ukraine, if putin succeeds there
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 09, 2023, 01:21:32 PM
Yeah... Although...

...Just what kind of nuclear arsenal does Russia have, as opposed to claim?

I think them cogs have begun a-turning at least among the Western military analysts when trying to discern Russia's place in the world's military hierarchy.

"Russia stronk because nukes! End world many times over!"
"-Working nukes?"
"Russia invade all NATO and win because Russia not corrupt like Pentagon!"
"-Riiight... Working nukes though..?"
"Go away or I nuke you!"

 :thoughtful: May it just be that the naked king is riding a tiger, made [almost] entirely out of paper and with its tail on fire?
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 09, 2023, 04:04:49 PM
i wouldmt be surprised if most of putins nukes are inoperable. but he only needs one, and i also wouldnt put him above making a malfunctioning warhead into a low tech dirty bomb.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on May 09, 2023, 05:11:23 PM
Quote from: billy rubin on May 09, 2023, 04:04:49 PMi wouldmt be surprised if most of putins nukes are inoperable. but he only needs one, and i also wouldnt put him above making a malfunctioning warhead into a low tech dirty bomb.

Given their maintenance history I would agree with you. But as you say even if true it's not worth a gamble if 50% are operable.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 10, 2023, 06:11:15 AM
He'd get nowhere except deeper into sanctions with one.

Also, I suspect that Russia would quickly lose what little launch capability they have if they launched another.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 11:35:03 AM
putin can deliver a warhead to crimea on a truck, and install it on a cruise missile to blow up anywhere in ukraine. he doesnt need ICBMs.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 10, 2023, 11:41:38 AM
...For now. Soon, he may need a train to get one to Crimea as his land corridor is in danger and his bridge is... Pretty-much rail-only.

That said, there is "nothing" in Ukraine to thusly blow up. Oh, they have a few weapon and munitions factories, but those are not where them Bradleys and them Leopards come from - not even where most of the artillery shells they fire come from, I suspect. So... Waste the consequences of a nuclear strike to take out maybe 5000 Ukrainian troops? Bad math from every angle that I, at least, can see.

Now, if Russia went for a "barrage" of nukes, assuming for a moment that they are so capable, they'd very likely be subject to a retaliatory strike, against which they would have precious little to throw. Assuming, of course, that the overall Russian forces are as effective as those fighting in Ukraine - not an unfair assumption, I'd say, as their "best" have already got - if you pardon the expression - buttfucked to a standstill there.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 11:46:56 AM
no. drop the missile on the civilians in kiev, and dare the world to contradict him.

putin stopped attending to inanimate targets early on. his targets now are hospitals, schools, apartment buildings, evacuation convoys, passenger trains, and so on

he has refrained from nukes until now, but if he feels he is threatened

l'etat, c'est lui
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 10, 2023, 11:53:47 AM
Quote from: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 11:46:56 AMno. drop the missile on the civilians in kiev, and dare the world to contradict him.
I suspect that he knows that it would. The world would not react as Japan did in WW2.

Ukraine wouldn't fold and negotiate after a nuclear strike - at that point, why ever would they? Ukraine's allies would then dedicate all their spare time to finding creative ways of fucking Russia. Many, if not most, of the "don't give a rat's arse" nations would - at least on the surface - start giving said rodent bottom, and not in favour of the nation that plays with them smoke shrooms.

As it stands, Russia still has bridges to burn - and those bridges are important to them.

Quoteputin stopped attending to inanimate targets early on. his targets now are hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings.
That's not inaccurate, yet untrue. Russia does target military forces and installations, but they have precious little in terms of munitions and intelligence, (the latter, I suspect, is part of what holds back their air force - combined with poor maintenance, worse pilot training and general... russian-ness) with which to reliably cause damage to high value military targets behind the front lines, so they attack infrastructure and what have you in an effort to shift the local public opinion against continued resistance. It's... counter-productive for them, as their war effort goes.

Quotehe gas refrained from nukes until now, but if he feels he is threatened
Oh, he may nuke a major population center and burn his nation around himself... If he's able. He's still a rational actor though. There is no upside to such a strike against Ukraine - and even less so in one against a supporting nation.

If any-such-thing, I wouldn't put it past Russia to either send a knowingly-interceptable nuke, or a convincing enough dud and play the "next time it might BOOM!" card, but even that... Where is the upside?
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 11:56:40 AM
he may be rationale, but i observe a colossal disconnect from reality.

the entire progress of his war from day one shows that putin doesnt see the war the way the rest of the world does.

whether its because hes nuts or because his intelligence is faulty doesnt matter.

putin could easily drop a nuke because he thinks it *will* work.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 10, 2023, 12:53:55 PM
Quote from: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 11:56:40 AMhe may be rationale, but i observe a colossal disconnect from reality.
Nah...

Well, maybe. what I think happened though is a bit more prosaic; Russia acted on yes-man (In this particular case, more "yes-sir") intel and are now rowing for all their worth which militarilly is... As expected by those of us resistant to vapor sales.

The Russian government is trying very hard to sell a hastily-constructed narrative, which they did not expect to have to sell. They still cling to some territorial ambitions through maintaining a stalemate into some sort of favourable negotiations. Beyond that, I suspect much of their operation at this point is... Best effort.

Quotethe entire progress of his war from day one shows that putin doesnt see the war the way the rest of the world does.
I don't think one is thusly connected with the other. Putin signed a few orders. I highly doubt that he envisioned anything close to the scale of the fuckup Russia has achieved or actively managed said achievement. His part in it was basically telling somebody; "Put my flag on that over there *point.*" Having failed every initially-stated objective of the operation, now it's about finding ways of selling it as some kind of success - or at the very least, a lesser disaster.

Quoteputin could easily drop a nuke because he thinks it *will* work.
That's where his rationality comes into play. The nuke may very well work as such things go, but how does it benefit Russia, or if you will, Putin personally? Russia does do cost-benefit analyses, even if one can argue that all they get is cost at "no" benefit.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 05:35:12 PM
garbage in, garbage out.

putin is operating in a data desert of rosy reports and wishful thinking.

thats what i mean when i say disonnected from reality.

i imagine tbe drone attacks on tne kremlin made him wet his pants.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Tank on May 10, 2023, 06:54:31 PM
We can but hope.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 11, 2023, 07:36:49 AM
Quote from: billy rubin on May 10, 2023, 05:35:12 PMputin is operating in a data desert of rosy reports and wishful thinking.
I agree. That one is a mess of "his own" making, too. Well... Sort-of. It's an artefact of Russia's past as well as its present. You don't tell bad news to power - they've been known to shoot the messenger.

Quotei imagine tbe drone attacks on tne kremlin made him wet his pants.
I think he knew about them. There are clear domestic benefits to a successful false flag like that. Russian government may have been hoping to rally the nation with a version of "Moscow is burning!"
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 11, 2023, 01:37:07 PM
if that were true then three days before the victory parades was the wrong time to do it.

smaller parades and scaled-down events wrre.very noticeable.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 11, 2023, 02:11:41 PM
Mmh... There could have been another less-than-poetic potential win there. Don't have any military pilots left for the parade and/or enough vehicles not otherwise engaged and/or don't want to actually provoke some real enemy action? Fly a drone into the Kremlin, but only a little bit, then claim security concerns.

They did have some more tech on display in other places. Moscow though... Sad as fuck.

That said though, it appears that Russian anti-air is an even bigger joke than their air force, so could it have been legitimate? Yeah, but then Russia is the only party with something tangible to gain from such an attack on so small a scale.
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: billy rubin on May 11, 2023, 02:52:05 PM
well, nobody was hurt and i havent seen any imagrs of any damage

you may be right
Title: Re: Russia invades Ukraine.
Post by: Asmodean on May 12, 2023, 07:32:47 AM
Yeah. It's just... If it were Ukraine, one would have expected better effort.