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Tipping point?

Started by Tank, December 12, 2021, 09:53:20 AM

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Tank

Russia on the border of Ukraine.
China testing the defences of Taiwan.
Iran close to a nuclear weapon.
Israel requesting bunker buster bombs from the USA.
The West effectively bankrupted by Covid.
Russia can close down Europe overnight by stopping gas supplies.

Any one of these would be serious on there own however we have all of these situations right here and right now. Not the safest time we have been in.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

billy rubin



more people have been to berlin than i have

Tank

If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Magdalena


"I've had several "spiritual" or numinous experiences over the years, but never felt that they were the product of anything but the workings of my own mind in reaction to the universe." ~Recusant

Icarus

Quote from: Tank on December 12, 2021, 09:53:20 AM
Russia on the border of Ukraine.

Russia can close down Europe overnight by stopping gas supplies.

Any one of these would be serious on there own however we have all of these situations right here and right now. Not the safest time we have been in.

Davin

Always question all authorities because the authority you don't question is the most dangerous... except me, never question me.

Magdalena


"I've had several "spiritual" or numinous experiences over the years, but never felt that they were the product of anything but the workings of my own mind in reaction to the universe." ~Recusant

Tank

If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

billy rubin

messy there. putin isnt leaving himself a face saving out that i can see. nor is biden. the rest of nato seems ambivalent


more people have been to berlin than i have

Tank

Quote from: billy rubin on January 22, 2022, 01:46:11 PM
messy there. putin isnt leaving himself a face saving out that i can see. nor is biden. the rest of nato seems ambivalent

I suspect/hope that Russia and NATO/Europe will compromise on a neutral zone of countries that used to be the extension of the Soviet Union. These would neither be in NATO nor a resurgent Warsaw Pact. But we can only hope. Biden is no Kennedy and that is the worry.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

billy rubin

in the art of negotiating, there is a particular type known as "soviet style."

in soviet style negotiating, you begin with an extreme starting point. you stick with it. you use strategems to impugn the sincerity of your opponent, you accept good faith concessions on their part, but make none of your own. you make threats if your position isnt given special consideration. you claim ridiculous offenses against you as a means of shifting the balance in your favour. you refuse to accept other considerations as relevant to the negotiation. your frame the negotiation to favour your end point, and refuse to alter your stance in anyway that benefit your opponent. zero sum.

putin is a specialist at this. he set the stage last year by massing troops on the ukrainian border. then he waited for the west to get nervous and submitted his position: nato is to give up its core mission of defense against russia by backing the map up to 1990, cutting the warsaw pact countries loose by removing weapons of defense (against russia) and changing its internal policy of allowing anybody to join who wants to.

what putin has specifically demanded is a return to the cold war super power relation between america and russia than obtained until the fall of the USSR. putin doesnt want a stable international community to join. he wants the warsaw pact back, where russia can dictate the politics of its adjacent neighbors by threats and by force, in order to achieve a hegemony in the region.

note that putin wants negotiations between russia and the US, not between russia nd nato. he wants ukraine isolated as a satellite state without self-determination, and he wants the baltic and central european states returned to a russian sphere of influence.

this is diametrically opposed to nato's mission and opening position in the negotiation. so far putin has refused to compromise in any way, and by waiting out the europeans he hopes for france to cave first (they always do) and then for one of three things to happen:

-- nato sstates will cut a deal with him giving him soem or all of what he wants

-- he can invade some or all of ukraine, claim they started it, and accpet the consequences

-- he can confound the west by escalating a cyber campaign or a limited incursion that they wont want to fully respond to.

at the moment putin still has a month to escalate. armoured warfare in the crimea will become difficult when the ground thaws, so if hes going to invade he still has a window. nato is getting jittery and cracks are showing up--france is proposing a european solution without the us, and germany is denying ukraine use of nato munitions its donated.

putin nas nothing to lose for a month, and can decide which option to pursue sometim in late february. he has not allowed himself an out, so he has to do something aggressive to show he is not weak, no matter what the end game is. i predict a limitd invasion blamed on ukraine, with a subsequent annexation of a new buffer zone.

its all chess with putin, and hes using a gambit hes been successful with before.


more people have been to berlin than i have

Tank

I agree with all of that.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Tom62

The universe never did make sense; I suspect it was built on government contract.
Robert A. Heinlein

billy rubin

its a shame about russia. when the ussr fell, there was a chance to welcome a new russia in as a friendly partner. but oligarchs and ex-KGB took over, and russia has charted its own path as an international mischief-maker rather than as a co-operative partner.

im not sure how the opportunity was missed, but missed it was. putin is 69 years old now and is trying to set the chess pieces up for gambits over the next decade or two. it remains to be seen just exactly where russia will go after him-- something new and prosperous, or more of the same international interference and ostracism


more people have been to berlin than i have

Icarus

The ambitions of one man, Putin and his supportive associates, could eventually lead to nuclear holocaust.  That is a reality that none of wish to contemplate.

If Putin does win the deadly chess game, in Ukraine, then are the Baltic states and Finland next in line for annexation?  Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania only recently, in the 1990s, escaped Russian domination. Those are Nato nations.  Would NATO respond militarily if Russia chose to flex it's muscle in the Baltics?

Worrisome indeed.