Interesting... http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/23/religion-to-go-extinct-in-9-countries-experts-predict/
I guess only time will tell! It will be interesting to look back and see if these predictions are correct, that is for certain. I wonder what they could predict if the United States included religious affiliation in the census.
These countries have already been noted as the least religious countries in the world over a decade ago. This comes as no surpruse to me.
Ireland's an interesting case. Not so long ago it was totally priest-ridden and catholic-dominated.
I think the child abuse scandals have done a lot to open people's eyes there.
I saw this research when it came out. I don't agree with it because it treats a very complex emotionally motivated human behaviour in a very simplistic linear statistical fashion ie if religion is decreasing it will die out. What the research fails to recognise is there is a spectrum of belief from the 'cultural habit' to the 'committed evangelical'. The survey appears to show that religiosity is decreasing but fails to identify the starting point in terms of belief from which it is decreasing. I suspect that it's the Cultural Habit (CH) group that is being eroded and the Committed Evangelical(CE) is remaining untouched or (given the availability of the Internet as a preaching medium) possibly increasing.
For arguments sake let's say there is a Probability of Deconversion (PoD) that goes from 1 to 0 as a horizontal line with CH on the left at 1 (always deconvert) to CE on the right at 0 (never deconvert). As time goes by various arguments and social factors take the majority of people out of theism to atheism. But then the crossover stops because the arguments and social factors fail to influence the remaining population, let's say 0.1 on the scale. Thus there remains a beleaguered residuum of believers who simply do not wish to change their word view, they are quite happy where they are thank you very much. There is a plateau below which the active social pressures and arguments have no further effect.
It is my experience online that there are those who simply will never deconvert and given human nature I don't see this changing. There will always be believers just as there have been unbelievers.
I think what the research does illustrate is that the supernatural world view, that has been prevalent throughout human history, is on the decline where being superstitious is no longer vital to one's 'success' in a society. What it does not show is that there will be a progressive linear decline of religion until religion simple disappears. Extrapolating the decline to extinction is invalid.
Good post/points, Tank!
Quote from: John_5.0 on April 08, 2012, 05:44:00 AM
I guess only time will tell! It will be interesting to look back and see if these predictions are correct, that is for certain. I wonder what they could predict if the United States included religious affiliation in the census.
I have questioned why we don't get religious information with the census also. The only reason I can think of is the politicians just don't want to know how many non-religious people are out there. I guess the best way to clear the air is to vote them out of office.
In the UK census there is a question on religious affiliation. In recent years large numbers of people put 'Jedi' and I always put 'Pastafarian'. However it's been pointed out that doing that ends up counting you under 'some religion' when you really want to be counted as 'no religion'. Next time I'll put 'none'.
Quote from: OldGit on June 26, 2012, 10:06:09 AM
In the UK census there is a question on religious affiliation. In recent years large numbers of people put 'Jedi' and I always put 'Pastafarian'. However it's been pointed out that doing that ends up counting you under 'some religion' when you really want to be counted as 'no religion'. Next time I'll put 'none'.
you DopeyGit ;)
Quote from: OldGit on June 26, 2012, 10:06:09 AM
In the UK census there is a question on religious affiliation. In recent years large numbers of people put 'Jedi' and I always put 'Pastafarian'. However it's been pointed out that doing that ends up counting you under 'some religion' when you really want to be counted as 'no religion'. Next time I'll put 'none'.
Really? i guess they would put that under 'other religion.'
Makes sense i guess :( ...
Let's all put none next time ;)
Recentl, I read an article about the decline of church attendance in the US. While decline of church attendance does not signify a decline of religion it may well be a portent of things to come. Source of the article was a religion based outfit whose business it is to track these kinds of statistics. Every major denomination showed a decrease over the last decade. The least affected were churches affiliated with the SBC. (southern baptist). Most of the decreases were in the single digit percentage range but some had two digit decreases.
I see some evidence of the decline in my own town. Several mainline churches have been sold and the buildings have been coverted to office or retail outlet spaces. One in particular is a beautiful old achitectural triumph. It is nearly 100 years old and in an area of town where prosperity is the norm. One of the old established methodist churches rents space for all sorts of activities including a meeting place for the buddhists congregation. They do it to generate revenue I presume. That suggests that their membership is failing to support the church sufficiently.
Actually, I live across the street from a very large baptist church. I can see that their attendance has suffered over time. All I need do is to observe their parking lot on Sundays or Wednesday evenings. A quaint little presbyterian in the next block is suffering similarly. As much as I disagree with the jesus people, I am saddened to see that these beautiful buildings are headed for a different kind of ownership.
Anomolies are here too. A certain church across town has recently spent several million to add separate buildings and hugely expanded parking lots. My town has a jesus college that has been in place since 1936. Its former name was Southeastern Bible College. Enrollment has always been limited. Some shrewd business types decided to change their name in favor of increased enrollment. The new name is Southeastern University. How clever to drop the word bible from the name. They spent a reported 24 mil to build new buildings and convert the grounds into a spectacular show place. They expanded their curriculum to include such as MBA. MBA in church management I reckon because it is still overtly religious. They have managed to snag high profile guest speakers including George W. Bush, Tim Tebow, and several other big names. My question is; Where and how are they getting all that money?
Wow I was thinking that Britain would be on the list somewhere. Looks like I will be moving to Canada for more than one reason when I hit my mid 30's.