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% chance of god existing

Started by Piemaster, June 04, 2007, 10:29:53 AM

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Piemaster

Looking at the question of god mathematically for a moment, what do you think the % chance is of some kind of god existing (in the way that most people would define a god)?  And if there is something out there, what are the % chances that it:

a)  Conforms approximately to the beliefs of some known religion (i.e. the Christian God exists or Allah exists etc).

b)  Conforms to no known religion, but nevertheless fits the definition of a god.


Obviously this is completely opinion based and so there is no right or wrong answer, so I would be interested in hearing everyone's opinion.

However, I reserve the right to pour slight scorn on responses of 0% or 100%.

Woody

#1
Quote from: "Piemaster"...Obviously this is completely opinion based and so there is no right or wrong answer, so I would be interested in hearing everyone's opinion.

However, I reserve the right to pour slight scorn on responses of 0% or 100%.

Hi, Piemaster. I'm not sure what the right answer might be but I disagree about there being no <i>wrong</I> answer.  The wrong answer is <I>100%</I>, 100%.  :-)

Haven't been around here much for some time.  It's nice to see some other Brits here.

SteveS

#2
I'm game.

a) Since I belief there to be no solid evidence of a god, and all god myths are basically created without any real knowledge of god, I believe this to be so close to 0% as makes no difference.  (I know - I'm risking the scorn  :wink:  )

b) I think everyone, upon discovering a god like this, would argue that it does in fact fit their description of god according to their religion.  But, let's put that aside.  Like question a) above, I think our concept of god is uninformed, so it's going to be unlikely that anything god-like is really god-like (if you catch my drift).  Still, since this one leaves the door more open, let me answer "approaching 0".  >0%

Honestly, this is how I see this question.  Without knowledge, their can be only speculation.  What chance does this sort of wild speculation have of being right?  
About 0  :smile:

donkeyhoty

#3
A:  0.1%,  there are a lot of religions out there, one of them could be right....  Just like I could go out to my car and find a $100 bill on the ground.

B: Well, if you've seen the film Stargate, or the Stargate TV shows(yeah, I'm a loser), an advanced civilization could be mistaken for gods... Just as we are, essentially, gods to the ants.  Although, the ants don't have the capability of worshipping us..... or do they?

Edit: I didn't give a second percentage.  1.5%
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians."  - Pat Robertson

Will

#4
1 to the -1,000,000,000 power, or a fraction of 1 over 1 to the negative 1 billionth power.
I want bad people to look forward to and celebrate the day I die, because if they don't, I'm not living up to my potential.

tacoma_kyle

#5
I'm ganna nitpick you Will...haha

1 to the 1st power = 1 --->1^(1) = 1
1 to the 9348594375689------>1^(9348594375689) = 1

Meaning there is god?

Haha you just missed the zero after the 1 or to state 'to the power of 10.' Actually I am kinda confused...power. Its used kinda weird sometimes...
Me, my projects and random pictures, haha.

http://s116.photobucket.com/albums/o22/tacoma_kyle/

"Tom you gotta come out of the closet, oh my gawd!" lol

Eclecticsaturn

#6
50/50. Its does or doesnt.  I surely dont believe there is a god, but the fact still remains that there either is, or isnt one.

Piemaster

#7
The reason I am asking this question is that I have a theory that rational odds-making goes out of the window when dealing with religion.  Because being a member of a religion is so stigmatised (for better or worse),  and because major religions frown upon uncertainty, people tend towards either 100% or 0% as answers, but more through hope and a preconceived notion that they should have conviction in their beliefs than through objective judgement.

Given that there are smart people on both sides of the debate, it is only reasonable to assume that the existance of some kind of god in the universe is far from an open and shut case.  Even the most devout member of a religion or the most staunch atheist should have a part of them that is willing to challenge their own preconceived notions.  In effect, the agnostics (which is probably the least fashionable belief system) are probably the most rational of us all.  They are at least acknowledging that there is room to argue on both sides of the debate and so are unwilling to put themselves definitively in one camp or other.

Incidently, I consider myself an atheist rather than agnostic, because my own beliefs are heavily skewed (maybe overly so?) in the favour of a godless universe.  However, by most atheists standards maybe I am an agnostic.  My own probabilities would be approximately:

No god - 95%
One religion is broadly right - 0.5%
God exists, but not any specific religion's - 4.5%

Many of us atheists were formerly religious.  Many non-religious people 'discover' God.  Yet most follow blindly into their new belief system as blindly as they followed their old one.  If you are going to travel from A to Z, shouldn't you travel through the rest of the alphabet first?

SteveS

#8
Good post Piemaster - I hear your argument.  Just a few comments.

I think the problem with listing percentages is that there is insufficient evidence for "rational odds-making".  95%, for example, is exactly 1 in 20.  How did you come up with such a precise number?  From what evidence?  And how was this rationally determined?  This is my only point with making odds on a question like this.

A common theme of mine is that I believe gods to be imagined by people.  Looking through our history shows us that people have invented gods, over and over again.  Over time gods are discarded, and new gods are created.  While our gods are probably created for many reasons, they always seem to be defended rationally with an appeal to unexplained phenomena in the natural world.

A good example of this would be a rain god.  Why does it rain sometimes, not other times?  Is there some way we can make it rain when we want it to rain?  So, presto, we made a rain god - do a rain dance, maybe it will rain (if we are currently in favor with the rain god).  What percentage chance do you think there is of any rain gods being real?  Not too likely, right, maybe approaching 0 is too kind?  Okay - here's another example of this: god as the "uncreated creator of the universe".  Again - a phenomena, in nature, that we can't explain (existence of, well, existence itself).  So - presto, we've got a god concept to explain this.  Seeing the similarity, my mind wonders why god as "creator of the cosmos" is any different then "god who makes it rain".  What evidence do we have that distinguishes between these two ideas of god?  Doesn't seem like much to me.  But since we've defined god as "creator of existence", what if we find something that did create existence, only it was a type of Boson or something, or a quantum fluctuation, or ... well, you get my drift.  Would this qualify as "god" to anyone?  I think not, so again I go with "approaching zero".

So - what if there is something undoubtedly god-like: a personality.  What if it's not supernatural?  Again - is this god?  What if there is a supernatural personality god-like thing --- if there is, at the current time there seems to be no real evidence as to what this thing is or what it's like, so all our concepts of god seem uninformed to me.  So what possible chance do we have of being right?  Blind luck.  Since 1% is 1 in 100, and there are far more than 100 speculations as to what god is or what god is like, the chance of any of them being right seems far less then 1% right out of the box.  So again, I'm going with "approaching 0".  Personally, if any god does exists, I think the deists are most likely to have it right mainly because they have such a hazy concept of god, as opposed to a more narrow definition like you find in polytheistic religions (rain-god, thunder-god, sky-god, sea-god, sun-god, moon-god etc. I don't think it's unfair to assign these a >0% chance of existing.  It can't be identically zero because they can't be shown to be impossible - but that's not much to hang your hat on).

None of my answer are precise --- they are qualitative, because I think I have insufficient evidence to quantify them.

Anyway, good post, this was fun to think about.  I hope my mental rambling explains how I came up with my answer (or, at least explains what's wrong with my brain  :wink:  ).

Will

#9
Quote from: "tacoma_kyle"I'm ganna nitpick you Will...haha

1 to the 1st power = 1 --->1^(1) = 1
1 to the 9348594375689------>1^(9348594375689) = 1

Meaning there is god?

Haha you just missed the zero after the 1 or to state 'to the power of 10.' Actually I am kinda confused...power. Its used kinda weird sometimes...
Good point. I've been out of Maths for a while now.
How about 10 to the -1,000,000,000 power? The idea is to present a number so close to zero that considering it's value as more than zero is really useless.

God almost certainly doesn't exist. Putting it into numbers, to me, seems an exercise in futility.
I want bad people to look forward to and celebrate the day I die, because if they don't, I'm not living up to my potential.

SteveS

#10
Yeah, that's my thought exactly, Will.  The best way I could describe it is "approaching zero".  (shrugs)

tacoma_kyle

#11
Quote from: "Willravel"Good point. I've been out of Maths for a while now.
How about 10 to the -1,000,000,000 power? The idea is to present a number so close to zero that considering it's value as more than zero is really useless.

God almost certainly doesn't exist. Putting it into numbers, to me, seems an exercise in futility.

God is like the sequence a^(n)/(n!). At the first few values it seems promising...gods power grows as the sequence grows...but when you calculate the limit as it approaches infinity, it is zero.

lol but I just never really registered it for some reason. So you arent doin too bad.
Me, my projects and random pictures, haha.

http://s116.photobucket.com/albums/o22/tacoma_kyle/

"Tom you gotta come out of the closet, oh my gawd!" lol

joeactor

#12
meh... angels... pins... dancing...

God is the quantum state.  He IS and ISN'T at the same time, and until he's revealed his state remains unknown and unknowable...

Agnostic - the definitive choice of I don't know what.

Same as it ever was,
JoeActor

McQ

#13
Quote from: "joeactor"meh... angels... pins... dancing...

God is the quantum state.  He IS and ISN'T at the same time, and until he's revealed his state remains unknown and unknowable...

Agnostic - the definitive choice of I don't know what.

Same as it ever was,
JoeActor

Now that's well put!

 :D
Elvis didn't do no drugs!
--Penn Jillette

pjkeeley

#14
QuoteA common theme of mine is that I believe gods to be imagined by people. Looking through our history shows us that people have invented gods, over and over again. Over time gods are discarded, and new gods are created. While our gods are probably created for many reasons, they always seem to be defended rationally with an appeal to unexplained phenomena in the natural world.

A good example of this would be a rain god. Why does it rain sometimes, not other times? Is there some way we can make it rain when we want it to rain? So, presto, we made a rain god - do a rain dance, maybe it will rain (if we are currently in favor with the rain god). What percentage chance do you think there is of any rain gods being real? Not too likely, right, maybe approaching 0 is too kind? Okay - here's another example of this: god as the "uncreated creator of the universe". Again - a phenomena, in nature, that we can't explain (existence of, well, existence itself). So - presto, we've got a god concept to explain this. Seeing the similarity, my mind wonders why god as "creator of the cosmos" is any different then "god who makes it rain". What evidence do we have that distinguishes between these two ideas of god? Doesn't seem like much to me. But since we've defined god as "creator of existence", what if we find something that did create existence, only it was a type of Boson or something, or a quantum fluctuation, or ... well, you get my drift. Would this qualify as "god" to anyone?
Awesome! This is a fantastic argument. I'd never thought to compare 'god who made the cosmos' to 'god who made it rain'. I'm so using this from now on!

Plus I just love how Christians HATE being compared to paganism.  :D