News:

If you have any trouble logging in, please contact admins via email. tankathaf *at* gmail.com or
recusantathaf *at* gmail.com

Main Menu

Liz Truss

Started by Tank, October 20, 2022, 02:06:26 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

billy rubin

no one will ever pay it back, asmodean. its a failed system.

eventually there will be a paradigm shift in government and society, and tbe debt will be repudiated. the lenders will lose tbeir money and socity will move on.


News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

billy rubin

but i have a suggestion on choosing the new PM



News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

billy rubin



News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

Quote from: billy rubin on October 21, 2022, 10:29:44 PMno one will ever pay it back, asmodean. its a failed system.

eventually there will be a paradigm shift in government and society, and tbe debt will be repudiated. the lenders will lose tbeir money and socity will move on.
The USA defaulting on its debt would be a economic disaster though, and I suspect less so for the net creditor nations than for the US itself.

Still, I suspect there is a lot of bloat in them budgets that could be done away with - if not cold turkey, then through "planned obsolescence."

I don't know if this pie diagram from a couple of years ago is correct, but assuming that it is;


As good as one third is going to "other" needs, with the infrastructure not even listed. How's about at least a 10% investment into the infrastructure and a 10% maximum on "other?"

That said, 21% spent on health care in a largely insurance-based health care system seems... Excessive. Something somewhere doesn't do its job, I suspect.

Still, just slashing the budgets for the expensive stuff is hardly a solution. If you run the nation as you would a business, then restructuring and cutting expenses can be a useful tool, but only if there is a plan on the other end of how to make the nation profitable again. What can you sell to whom? how can you preserve or establish competitive edge?

...I guess my point is; there is much, much more to the economy than my rather pedestrian take.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

billy rubin

#19
yes it will be an economic upheaval.

whether it will be a disaster depends on whether youre holding the clean or the dirty end of the stick.

those benefitting from tbe current system would not find the prospect appealing. those who do not benefit as much have that much less to lose.


News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

Quote from: billy rubin on October 24, 2022, 12:04:31 PMwhether it will be a disaster depends on whether youre holding the clean or the dirty end of the stick.

those benefitting from tbe current system would not find the prospect appealing. those who do not benefit as much have that much less to lose.
There is more to defaulting on international loans. The US obligations would gradually (though rather quickly as such things go) become near-worthless, the interests on US loans would go through the roof, the currency would be propped up by mostly external forces, foreign capital would grow wings right before our eyes... Yeah, it's a long list of woes. Point is, going bankrupt may not be a calamity of macroeconomic proportions in a country that does not rely heavily on free market import/export. (and the taxation thereof) A country like the United States, however... Oof.

So yeah... If "all" you have to lose is two shitty jobs, paying less than your rent combined - in such an event, you become very likely to lose just that. A hedge fund manager, on the other hand, is unlikely to have to sell his Bentley over it, provided he managed his hedge fund well and "saw the signs," of which there would be plenty.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

billy rubin

#21
well, i own my property free and clear, and am planting it in periennial food plants. there is an easement that brings in enough money to pay the property taxes.

im anticipating that the owner of the bentley may find his hedge fund of less value than a well-planned orchard and garden, asmo. if he has no marketable skills except money management, he may end up outside the city walls.

were in the late stages of a dying system, as i see it. i could be wrong, but civilizations rise and fall all the time in history . i dont see our version as any different.


News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

Quote from: billy rubin on October 24, 2022, 03:22:05 PMim anticipating that the owner of the bentley may find his hedge fund of less value than a well-planned orchard and garden, asmo. if he has no marketable skills except money management, he may end up outside the city walls.
If he does - he deserves as much. There is a whole wide world out there to do some honest capital flight to, if the shit hits the fan - and even if he cannot, he can convert some liquid assets into for example land or precious metals or even do very well in a failing market just buying low and selling high, like the rest of us.

If he's good at manipulating money, he'll do quite well. Heck, we even have examples of billionaire neer-do-wells landing firmly on their feet after being practically bankrupted by the markets. There was this one power trader from the town where I studied, who... Long story. Was filthy rich. Went bust. Now... Is filthy rich.

That said, I don't think the "system" is "dying." There is nothing better to replace it, so it shall keep on keeping on.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

billy rubin

Quote from: Asmodean on October 24, 2022, 08:44:22 PMThat said, I don't think the "system" is "dying."


we never do, asmo. the systems die anyway,


News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

Quote from: billy rubin on October 24, 2022, 10:54:55 PMwe never do, asmo. the systems die anyway,
I would appreciate some receipts here - and I'm not talking about systems evolving gradually into different versions of themselves - which systems "died" without "us" thinking that they would?
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

billy rubin

how about rome?

greece?

venice?

assyria?

the third reich?

pre pol pot cambodia?





News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

#26
Quote from: billy rubin on October 25, 2022, 12:27:45 PMhow about rome?
...Took a very long time to deteriorate. Never actually "died," as such. I doubt the "fall" of rome came as much of a surprise on any who had the capacity to follow the events on a macro scale at the time. Of course, there were far more information barriers back in those days, so ye-unwashed-masses may have been moderately surprised by the unfolding events, especially if they bought into the official narrative. This applies to all them pre-industrial falls, really. You needed both incentive and access to power in order to be able to analyse the "big picture." A average Roman turnip farmer probably had neither.

Quotegreece?
More or less same here, though on less grand of a scale... Sort of.

Quotevenice?
Got Napoleoned. Yes, war can lead to death of a nation, but again, why assume that people with the properly scaled picture of events at the time did not see the fall coming from a long way off - or at least as the events began unfolding? Death of a human is a process with a beginning, a continuation (or body, if you prefer) and an end. Death of a nation or a civilization is even more so. It's easy enough to identify a false beginning [EDIT: -of the end] - pretty much every self-respecting doomsday prophet's career is defined by that... and this is kind-of important to what I'm trying to say. Moving on for now.

Quoteassyria?
Again, sort-of same as above. War can kill a nation, but it's perfectly possible to know when such a war is lost long before the last battle is even fought. A strategic thinker with proper royal ties at the time would likely see exactly which way the wind was blowing.

Quotethe third reich?
That one is contemporary enough that we know how its fall was foreseen - orchestrated, even. Oh, the ultimate defeat of the Nazi war machine may have come as a surprise to some, but the war, much in line with what I said above, was over long before the last battle was fought. Again, with the proper perspective, a contemporary could see that - and people did. For example, to expand the war efforts, a nation needs roughly this and that. They produce or can otherwise obtain less. OK. To sustain a status quo, they need this and that. Now they are below that level. At this point, they are well on their way to being fucked most viciously, unless some variables change. Again, if you are in a position to know - even roughly - how those variables are changing, you can adjust your model accordingly.

Quotepre pol pot cambodia?
No knowledge of Cambodia, really, except the whole Pot thing. That said, though not your example, a regime associated with a man lasts as long as the man - or at least his legend. Is North Korea sustainable? Iran? Venezuela? OK, one of those has sort-of collapsed already, but it can stand as an example. If you are in a position to be able to connect the dots in the form of a nation's tomb stone, you can.

Now, the Aztecs may be a good example of a civilization going about its business, then suddenly smallpox and rifles and plate armour... Maybe, but then, I suspect that the end was neither sudden nor particularly difficult to predict once it had begun.

Looking back at my doomsayer comment. Why is it that pretty much every generation has its people shouting that the end is nigh from whatever passes for rooftops? I'd say it is precisely because it is easier to attribute a changing state of affairs - even an evolution of a system, such as we have seen with for example the fall of the Soviet Union or, for that matter, Brexit - to The End(tm), whether it is or not, than to business as usual, slightly altered.

I think for the United States, the first "real" sign of collapse would be individual states erecting borders, printing passports and fucking off to do their own thing - probably in the wake of a civil war which may in itself not be a signifier of imminent doom.

Overly verbose point short(er); no, it is not difficult to predict the end - people of varying degree of crackpottery, from none to utter, do it "all the time." It's not that difficult to spot a crackpot either, which is not to say that they are invariably wrong about everything they say, or a fear monger who willingly ignores the situation on a properly scaled map to profess the worst case scenario as "totally upon us."
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

billy rubin

#27
why would the elements of surprise or predictability be significant?

knowing that a current path leads to calamity has never stopped anybody from going there.

climate change is a current example.  covid denial is another.


News has been received from the Punjab that the Amritsar mob has again broken out in a violent attack against the authorities. The rebels were repulsed by the military and they suffered 200 casualties.

Asmodean

Climate change is unlikely to lead to the fall of civilization, although a nation or three is likely to end up in the drink and/or a scorching desert.

Other nations will... Adapt and overcome.

As for why predictability is significant - only in that it is a direct answer to your point;

Quote from: billy rubin on October 24, 2022, 10:54:55 PM
Quote from: Asmodean on October 24, 2022, 08:44:22 PMThat said, I don't think the "system" is "dying."


we never do, asmo. the systems die anyway,

Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Ecurb Noselrub

Liz has proven once and for all that Brits can be as incompetent as Americans. The new guy, however, seems to have a bit more on the ball. We will see.