Russia invades Ukraine.

[Asmodean]

I have read it in an blog - wouldn't surprise me if true. There have been reports of ship crews, as in, not marines or such like - sailors, with barely any weapons or training in the use thereof in a trench warfare situation, being engaged in the unfolding disaster that is the ground invasion of Ukraine.

Still, you have to give the keyboard warriors their due; there are, for instance, those who try to seriously argue that Ukraines losses are greater than those of Russia because Russia fired more artillery shells. Ah, the cope is strong with the vatnik brigade!

Actually, I think it's a bit of a case of selective memory. Histoiry, it is a bit of a cyclical thing and Russia... Russia completely fucked up more wars than it won. They had their asses handed to them in Chechnya One by a fucking militia. That's the rival nation to NATO... Somehow.

[billy rubin]

russia is a third world nation that has inherited nuclear weapons from a more competent ancestor.

the nukes are the sole reason russia hasnt been flattened by the peoples it attacks.

this nuclear extortion isnt going to end in ukraine, if putin succeeds there

[Asmodean]

Yeah... Although...

...Just what kind of nuclear arsenal does Russia have, as opposed to claim?

I think them cogs have begun a-turning at least among the Western military analysts when trying to discern Russia's place in the world's military hierarchy.

"Russia stronk because nukes! End world many times over!"
"-Working nukes?"
"Russia invade all NATO and win because Russia not corrupt like Pentagon!"
"-Riiight... Working nukes though..?"
"Go away or I nuke you!"

  May it just be that the naked king is riding a tiger, made [almost] entirely out of paper and with its tail on fire?

[billy rubin]

i wouldmt be surprised if most of putins nukes are inoperable. but he only needs one, and i also wouldnt put him above making a malfunctioning warhead into a low tech dirty bomb.

[Tank]

i wouldmt be surprised if most of putins nukes are inoperable. but he only needs one, and i also wouldnt put him above making a malfunctioning warhead into a low tech dirty bomb.

Given their maintenance history I would agree with you. But as you say even if true it's not worth a gamble if 50% are operable.

[Asmodean]

He'd get nowhere except deeper into sanctions with one.

Also, I suspect that Russia would quickly lose what little launch capability they have if they launched another.

[billy rubin]

putin can deliver a warhead to crimea on a truck, and install it on a cruise missile to blow up anywhere in ukraine. he doesnt need ICBMs.

[Asmodean]

...For now. Soon, he may need a train to get one to Crimea as his land corridor is in danger and his bridge is... Pretty-much rail-only.

That said, there is "nothing" in Ukraine to thusly blow up. Oh, they have a few weapon and munitions factories, but those are not where them Bradleys and them Leopards come from - not even where most of the artillery shells they fire come from, I suspect. So... Waste the consequences of a nuclear strike to take out maybe 5000 Ukrainian troops? Bad math from every angle that I, at least, can see.

Now, if Russia went for a "barrage" of nukes, assuming for a moment that they are so capable, they'd very likely be subject to a retaliatory strike, against which they would have precious little to throw. Assuming, of course, that the overall Russian forces are as effective as those fighting in Ukraine - not an unfair assumption, I'd say, as their "best" have already got - if you pardon the expression - buttfucked to a standstill there.

[billy rubin]

no. drop the missile on the civilians in kiev, and dare the world to contradict him.

putin stopped attending to inanimate targets early on. his targets now are hospitals, schools, apartment buildings, evacuation convoys, passenger trains, and so on

he has refrained from nukes until now, but if he feels he is threatened

l'etat, c'est lui

[Asmodean]

no. drop the missile on the civilians in kiev, and dare the world to contradict him.

I suspect that he knows that it would. The world would not react as Japan did in WW2.

Ukraine wouldn't fold and negotiate after a nuclear strike - at that point, why ever would they? Ukraine's allies would then dedicate all their spare time to finding creative ways of fucking Russia. Many, if not most, of the "don't give a rat's arse" nations would - at least on the surface - start giving said rodent bottom, and not in favour of the nation that plays with them smoke shrooms.

As it stands, Russia still has bridges to burn - and those bridges are important to them.

putin stopped attending to inanimate targets early on. his targets now are hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings.

That's not inaccurate, yet untrue. Russia does target military forces and installations, but they have precious little in terms of munitions and intelligence, (the latter, I suspect, is part of what holds back their air force - combined with poor maintenance, worse pilot training and general... russian-ness) with which to reliably cause damage to high value military targets behind the front lines, so they attack infrastructure and what have you in an effort to shift the local public opinion against continued resistance. It's... counter-productive for them, as their war effort goes.

he gas refrained from nukes until now, but if he feels he is threatened

Oh, he may nuke a major population center and burn his nation around himself... If he's able. He's still a rational actor though. There is no upside to such a strike against Ukraine - and even less so in one against a supporting nation.

If any-such-thing, I wouldn't put it past Russia to either send a knowingly-interceptable nuke, or a convincing enough dud and play the "next time it might BOOM!" card, but even that... Where is the upside?

[billy rubin]

he may be rationale, but i observe a colossal disconnect from reality.

the entire progress of his war from day one shows that putin doesnt see the war the way the rest of the world does.

whether its because hes nuts or because his intelligence is faulty doesnt matter.

putin could easily drop a nuke because he thinks it *will* work.

[Asmodean]

he may be rationale, but i observe a colossal disconnect from reality.

Nah...

Well, maybe. what I think happened though is a bit more prosaic; Russia acted on yes-man (In this particular case, more "yes-sir") intel and are now rowing for all their worth which militarilly is... As expected by those of us resistant to vapor sales.

The Russian government is trying very hard to sell a hastily-constructed narrative, which they did not expect to have to sell. They still cling to some territorial ambitions through maintaining a stalemate into some sort of favourable negotiations. Beyond that, I suspect much of their operation at this point is... Best effort.

the entire progress of his war from day one shows that putin doesnt see the war the way the rest of the world does.

I don't think one is thusly connected with the other. Putin signed a few orders. I highly doubt that he envisioned anything close to the scale of the fuckup Russia has achieved or actively managed said achievement. His part in it was basically telling somebody; "Put my flag on that over there *point.*" Having failed every initially-stated objective of the operation, now it's about finding ways of selling it as some kind of success - or at the very least, a lesser disaster.

putin could easily drop a nuke because he thinks it *will* work.

That's where his rationality comes into play. The nuke may very well work as such things go, but how does it benefit Russia, or if you will, Putin personally? Russia does do cost-benefit analyses, even if one can argue that all they get is cost at "no" benefit.

[billy rubin]

garbage in, garbage out.

putin is operating in a data desert of rosy reports and wishful thinking.

thats what i mean when i say disonnected from reality.

i imagine tbe drone attacks on tne kremlin made him wet his pants.

[Tank]

We can but hope.

[Asmodean]

putin is operating in a data desert of rosy reports and wishful thinking.

I agree. That one is a mess of "his own" making, too. Well... Sort-of. It's an artefact of Russia's past as well as its present. You don't tell bad news to power - they've been known to shoot the messenger.

i imagine tbe drone attacks on tne kremlin made him wet his pants.

I think he knew about them. There are clear domestic benefits to a successful false flag like that. Russian government may have been hoping to rally the nation with a version of "Moscow is burning!"