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Russia invades Ukraine.

Started by Tank, February 24, 2022, 09:39:43 AM

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Asmodean

By bringing the war to Moscow, it will go nuclear. Maybe even before that - the Russian government only needs to legitimise a threat to the existence of Russia in order to proceed. I have little doubt they will manage that long before the war reaches their capital.

It's too bad that Ukraine has to fight for "the lot of us" as alone as they are, but going against a nuclear power, as foreign in their approach to the value of human life, individual and group rights and duties as they are to "us" in the West, I think winning a proxy war is the best we can hope for.

I think it can be won, though for all practical purposes, it is likely to cost "us" Ukraine - or much of it, at least. Russia is tenacious. They won't pack their gear and fuck the fuck off on their own unless their leadership changes several times, I think. For that, we are talking decades. Potentially, many decades. Driving them out... For Ukraine alone (Yes, yes, even with "our" fancy rockets) it's a tall order.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

If it does go Nuclear and it may Russia will be totally fucked while Putin remains in charge.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Asmodean

More than Russia will be fucked in that case, which I assume the Russian leaders know and count on.

That said, I'm rapidly approaching my vote going to the "bring it on!" crowd. Just get this whole Russia and China thing over with - preferably India and Pakistan as well. I'm ready for my Fallout universe with chaingun wielding super mutants and feral ghouls and vault dwellers and, if statistics are to be believed, no me in it.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Icarus


Tank

If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Asmodean

Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

Kharkiv offensive: Russia surprised as Ukraine takes several towns - UK

QuoteA Ukrainian advance near the eastern city of Kharkiv - which has recaptured several towns - has taken Russia "by surprise", UK defence officials say.

In a daily update, they said Kyiv's forces have advanced 50km (31 miles) into previously Russian-held territory.

The attack has also left thousands of Moscow's troops "increasingly isolated" near the key city of Izyum, they said.

On Friday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had retaken 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Some good news.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Asmodean

I do hope Ukraine has what it takes - or will be given it - to kick Russia from out of her borders (That includes Crimea in my book)

They are doing well. No longer just "better than we could have hoped" - just... Well. May this trend continue.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

As we approach the first anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine President Biden visits Kiev.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Asmodean

#54
It's good, I think.

There are voices in the United States and Europe alike advocating for "not our war" approach. They do have a point in that war is expensive and by sending over our stocks of this and that and a boomstick, we leave ourselves with less for defence. They don't have a point - according to this """expert""" - in "let us not poke the bear." The bear has threatened us with nukes on many a "red line" already. Fuck the bear, I say. Literally and less-than-gently.

Thing is, I'm on the side of he who defends everything, defends nothing - so let us defend ourselves by making certain that Russia breaks its teeth on Ukraine, even if it means we're in it for the long haul. A world where a nation like Russia gets what it wants by rushing troops to the border... It is the world we lived in until a year ago. They took Crimea. They fucked with Georgia. On paper, they were quite the tiger. Let the paper tiger burn - may something better arise in its stead.

Hmm... I wonder if a parallel to WW2 era Japan is in order...

In any case, from my position, I'm grateful for the US support on behalf of all nations sharing a border with or actively in the crosshairs of Russia  - heck, even for the ever-waffling Germans and the "peace"-mongering French. I think the stakes are high enough in a bird's eye view to warrant that and more, and the rhetoric... Well, at least it is less pathetic than what Russian ministry of propaganda churns out.

Hashtag giveUkrainethedamnedfighterjets.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Old Seer

Suggestion:
Listen to a Col. Macgreggor and Scott Ritter on youtube. 
The only thing possible the world needs saving from are the ones running it.
Oh lord, save us from those wanting to save us.
I'm not a Theist.

Asmodean

#56
...So I looked up Ritter;

Quoteis an American author, pundit, former United States Marine Corps intelligence officer, former United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) weapons inspector, and convicted sex offender.

Not trying to throw shade on the man, since I have no idea who he is, it's just... One of those uh... Careers is not like the others. :snicker1:

I'm aware of the good colonel though. His predictions so far have held up about as well as his rhetoric, and although there is something to be said against flatly ignoring his position, this """"expert"""" does not see a way clear for Russia to claim anything close to a decisive military victory. Not in what has become a trench war, punctuated by artillery duels.

Russian military was impressive enough on paper, but has demonstrably shown to be woefully mismanaged, undertrained, underequipped and often lacking in professionalism, morale... Fucking flak jackets...

They say that quantity is its own quality. Well... Not really. A hundred artillery units shooting regular-dumb-shells blindly are hardly worth one precision system, actually hitting the target. From what I've seen, only one side in the war still employs precision munitions to great effect, and it's not Russia. Yes, they can level many an apartment building - what does that do for their war effort?

Quick [EDIT]: I think there are talking heads at both extremes, talking probably-trash about the war - whoever their preferred victor. It may be just me, but it has a certain sound of... Being for the audience. If their camp manages to scrape together the meagerest and/or most pyrrhic of strategic victories, they'll still prance around from podcast to podcast crowing about having predicted everything right. Well... I think they have about an equal chance of actually being so, with at-the-moment a slight advantage to the "Ukraine will win" camp, though I think their victory will have to be more than purely military in nature, so I wonder how much of it is analysing the actual war, and how much is choosing one's audience and running with it. I do try to follow content from every vector imaginable, including several "ministries of propaganda," and in my completely non-expert opinion, by far the best are those who just show what's going on without trying to predict some "grand plan," that won't survive past the next engagement anyways.
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

We have a new word Russiophobia. Putin coined it in his May 8th Victory Day address in 2023.
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Asmodean

Did you see the thing though? I caught a bit of a live stream by an YouTuber I follow, and... It was sad. They had like one tank in the whole parade and it was a T34. "No" actual soldiers - just recruits. No aircraft of any kind. Did they lose like everything in Ukraine?! :lol:
Quote from: Ecurb Noselrub on July 25, 2013, 08:18:52 PM
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

I didn't watch it. I may well do now. Did you see a Russian Admiral was sacked because he refused to have his sailors taken from his ships and sent to the front line in Ukraine?
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.