Author Topic: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator  (Read 939 times)

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« on: February 06, 2018, 01:13:03 AM »
This Saturday I’m hosting a neighborhood canvassing event for Beto O’Rourke, Democratic Candidate for Senator from Texas against Ted Cruz.  I’ve never done anything like this before, so it will be a new experience. I’m a moderate independent, so I’m not used to getting behind a particular party’s candidate, but Trump has changed all that.  O’Rourke is a Congressman from El Paso, and most importantly of all for me, he is adamantly against the Wall in Texas.  Cruz is not - he’s pro Trump even though Trump said his father was involved in JFK’s assassination and even though Trump implied that his wife was ugly.  Shows the integrity (or lack thereof) of the man.  O’Rourke is young and energetic, and right now is polling within single digits of Cruz, even though he’s relatively unknown.

If we can swing the Senate to the Dems, we can stop the Wall. That’s the most important thing for me. Trump sucks and is a traitor to the Russians. He must be stopped.

Magdalena

  • Butterfly of Doom.
  • Don't Pray in My School, and I Won't Think in Your Church
  • *****
  • Posts: 7885
  • Gender: Female
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2018, 05:07:50 AM »
^^^
Wow!  :tellmemore:
 :smokin cool: :clapping:
 :yes!:

Tank

  • Fed up with stupid.
  • Administrator
  • Excellent and Indefatigable Guardian of Reason
  • *****
  • Posts: 30354
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2018, 06:42:05 AM »
Good luck Bruce!!!
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
“Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.” ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Davin

  • Don't Pray in My School, and I Won't Think in Your Church
  • *****
  • Posts: 7117
  • Gender: Male
  • (o°-°)=o o(o*-°)
    • DevPirates
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2018, 01:52:28 PM »
I donated some money to his campaign. Good luck!

Always question all authorities because the authority you don't question is the most dangerous... except me, never question me.

Essie Mae

  • Free to think.
  • Not Defeated by the Dark Night of the Soul
  • ****
  • Posts: 1720
  • Gender: Female
  • I Hope Uncle Bert is still my friend.
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2018, 08:14:59 AM »
This Saturday I’m hosting a neighborhood canvassing event for Beto O’Rourke, Democratic Candidate for Senator from Texas against Ted Cruz.  I’ve never done anything like this before, so it will be a new experience. I’m a moderate independent, so I’m not used to getting behind a particular party’s candidate, but Trump has changed all that.  O’Rourke is a Congressman from El Paso, and most importantly of all for me, he is adamantly against the Wall in Texas.  Cruz is not - he’s pro Trump even though Trump said his father was involved in JFK’s assassination and even though Trump implied that his wife was ugly.  Shows the integrity (or lack thereof) of the man.  O’Rourke is young and energetic, and right now is polling within single digits of Cruz, even though he’s relatively unknown.

If we can swing the Senate to the Dems, we can stop the Wall. That’s the most important thing for me. Trump sucks and is a traitor to the Russians. He must be stopped.

How did the canvassing event go, and the campaign in general?  :bravo:
Hell is empty and all the devils are here. Wm Shakespeare


Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2018, 12:23:49 AM »
This Saturday I’m hosting a neighborhood canvassing event for Beto O’Rourke, Democratic Candidate for Senator from Texas against Ted Cruz.  I’ve never done anything like this before, so it will be a new experience. I’m a moderate independent, so I’m not used to getting behind a particular party’s candidate, but Trump has changed all that.  O’Rourke is a Congressman from El Paso, and most importantly of all for me, he is adamantly against the Wall in Texas.  Cruz is not - he’s pro Trump even though Trump said his father was involved in JFK’s assassination and even though Trump implied that his wife was ugly.  Shows the integrity (or lack thereof) of the man.  O’Rourke is young and energetic, and right now is polling within single digits of Cruz, even though he’s relatively unknown.

If we can swing the Senate to the Dems, we can stop the Wall. That’s the most important thing for me. Trump sucks and is a traitor to the Russians. He must be stopped.

How did the canvassing event go, and the campaign in general?  :bravo:

We signed up a few folks - it wasn't great but wasn't bad, either. I live in a conservative county and city.  But statewide he is catching up with Cruz gradually.  A lot can happen between now and November.

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2018, 04:05:59 PM »
I’m at a Beto rally in Temple, TX.  Beto will be here to speak, on his trip to all 254 counties in the state.  Looks like at least 200 people here - not bad for a very conservative town.

MadBomr101

  • A Frood Who Really Knows Where Their Towel Is
  • **
  • Posts: 474
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2018, 06:18:27 PM »
Cruz is one of the scummiest politicians alive. If Texas re-elects him then they are truly hopeless. The fact that nearly a million and a half Texas Repubs showed up to hand over the primary to him was a very disturbing sign of how things are likely to go in this state.
- Bomr
I'm waiting for the movie of my life to be made.  It should cost about $7.23 and that includes the budget for special effects.

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2018, 04:01:45 AM »
Beto is within a few points of Cruz in statewide polling. Hope springs eternal.

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2018, 03:01:22 AM »
I'm sad, mad and glad.  Sad Beto lost, mad that Trump is an asshole, and glad the Dems won the House.  I think Beto could beat Cornyn for Senator in 2020, or even run for President and carry Texas.  The demographic trends indicate that Texas could turn Blue in 2020.

Asmodean

  • The Grumpy Lumpy
  • Administrator
  • Luxembourg Trembles!
  • *****
  • Posts: 14529
  • The GrayGod
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2018, 02:10:36 PM »
The demographic trends indicate that Texas could turn Blue in 2020.
Yeah, except the blue has turned a sickly shade in the recent years, while the red is still what it always was... I'm not certain Texas turning blue would be a good thing for "any-one still-sane" at this point. Maybe things will change on the American left though, now that the Democrats have at least some legislative power. Not holding my breath, but to quote a few words of wisdom,
Hope springs eternal.
:)

Congratulations on a good race. I followed it as a part of my outcome prediction experiment, which... almost succeeded.
In Asmo's grey lump,
wrath and dark clouds gather force.
Luxembourg trembles.

Tank

  • Fed up with stupid.
  • Administrator
  • Excellent and Indefatigable Guardian of Reason
  • *****
  • Posts: 30354
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2018, 02:21:00 PM »
I'm sad, mad and glad.  Sad Beto lost, mad that Trump is an asshole, and glad the Dems won the House.  I think Beto could beat Cornyn for Senator in 2020, or even run for President and carry Texas.  The demographic trends indicate that Texas could turn Blue in 2020.

I was going to ask you what you thought about this and as if by magic you replied. I  now believe in telepathy!  ;D
If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
“Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.” ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2018, 04:28:04 PM »
Here is my analysis:

Some significant things happened in the 2018 Texas Senate race.  The following is a map of voting in all 254 Texas counties in the 2016 Presidential election:

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/11/09/see-which-counties-texas-trump-and-clinton-won/

Trump beat Clinton by 52.23% to 42.34%.  Trump had 4,685,047 votes, and Clinton had 3,877,868.  The map shows that the following population centers - Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Hays County (San Marcos, just south of Austin), and Williamson County (just north of Austin) went for Trump.  The other major population centers - Harris County (Houston), Bexar County (San Antonio), Dallas County (Dallas), Travis County (Austin), El Paso County (El Paso), and the Rio Grande Valley (the southern tip of Texas) all went for Clinton.

This is the map of the 2018 election:

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/senate/

Cruz had 4,241,980 votes and got 50.9%.  Beto had 4,019,058 and had 48.3%, in a midterm election. Tarrant, Hays and Williamson Counties all went for Beto.  Many red counties turned either blue or pink (Amarillo and Lubbock even got closer).  John Carter - my Congressman - is an 8 term Congressman whose district includes his home county of Williamson and my county of Bell.  He lost his home county to M. J. Hegar, but won the election because my county stayed with him.  He had always won by double digits - this time he won by 3 points.

The trend is toward urbanization.  All major urban centers voted for Beto.  It was the vast sea of red counties in the rest of this large state that won it for Cruz.  But people are moving to Texas every day, often from more liberal states, and they are coming to the cities. Given the trend from 2016 to 2018, the Presidential election in 2020 (in which Texas’ other Senator, John Cornyn, is up for reelection) is clearly in play.  Given this trend, Texas will be blue in 2020.  Beto could decide to challenge Cornyn, who is not as disgusting as Cruz, or he could try for President.  Either way, it looks like Texas is turning blue or at least purple. 

The fact that Tarrant, Hays and Williamson counties went blue is nothing short of amazing, given than no Democrat has won a statewide election since the early 90’s. 

I’ve clicked on all 254 counties on these maps, and the super red states are basically rural.  The trend is clear - it’s heading left.  If Beto decides to go for Cornyn’s seat in 2020 or if he decides to run for President, I think he can carry Texas in 2020.  That’s huge.  I’m pissed, sad, depressed, angry, and in denial right now, but better days are ahead.  Compare the maps and you will see what I mean. Beto needs to revive the energy he created this year, and he will win Texas, either as a Senator or Presidential candidate, in 2020.  The GOP cannot win without Texas.

A bit more background about Texas demographics - it’s a huge state. The Panhandle and northwest are extensions of the Great Plains - conservative. East Texas is an extension of the South - conservative. South Texas is Mexico - Democratic. The large population centers are Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin (4 of the 11 largest cities in the country) - all Demo.  El Paso is Dem, Fort Worth is now turning Dem.  I’ve read that 1000 people a day move to Texas, and they don’t come to the barren rural counties of the Panhandle. They come to the cities

Sandra Craft

  • Surprisingly OK
  • Global Moderator
  • The Cure for Boredom is Curiosity. There is No Cure For Curiosity.
  • *****
  • Posts: 9139
  • Gender: Female
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2018, 08:19:04 PM »
To me it's just encouraging that Beto lost by so little.
Sandy

  
"I think this is the prettiest world -- as long as you don't mind a little dying, how could there be a day in your whole life that doesn't have its splash of happiness?"  from The Kingfisher, by Mary Oliver

Ecurb Noselrub

  • No Wall in my name!!!
  • Wears a Colander Hat for Special Occasions
  • *****
  • Posts: 6312
  • Gender: Male
Re: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz for Texas Senator
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2018, 09:21:56 PM »
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10/13/over-15-million-texans-are-registered-vote/

15,000,000 registered voters here, but only a little over 8,000,000 voted.  Voter apathy is a problem in the US.

If more voted, I think Dems would win.  But they don't vote.