Here is my analysis:
Some significant things happened in the 2018 Texas Senate race. The following is a map of voting in all 254 Texas counties in the 2016 Presidential election:
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/11/09/see-which-counties-texas-trump-and-clinton-won/Trump beat Clinton by 52.23% to 42.34%. Trump had 4,685,047 votes, and Clinton had 3,877,868. The map shows that the following population centers - Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Hays County (San Marcos, just south of Austin), and Williamson County (just north of Austin) went for Trump. The other major population centers - Harris County (Houston), Bexar County (San Antonio), Dallas County (Dallas), Travis County (Austin), El Paso County (El Paso), and the Rio Grande Valley (the southern tip of Texas) all went for Clinton.
This is the map of the 2018 election:
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/senate/Cruz had 4,241,980 votes and got 50.9%. Beto had 4,019,058 and had 48.3%, in a midterm election. Tarrant, Hays and Williamson Counties all went for Beto. Many red counties turned either blue or pink (Amarillo and Lubbock even got closer). John Carter - my Congressman - is an 8 term Congressman whose district includes his home county of Williamson and my county of Bell. He lost his home county to M. J. Hegar, but won the election because my county stayed with him. He had always won by double digits - this time he won by 3 points.
The trend is toward urbanization. All major urban centers voted for Beto. It was the vast sea of red counties in the rest of this large state that won it for Cruz. But people are moving to Texas every day, often from more liberal states, and they are coming to the cities. Given the trend from 2016 to 2018, the Presidential election in 2020 (in which Texas’ other Senator, John Cornyn, is up for reelection) is clearly in play. Given this trend, Texas will be blue in 2020. Beto could decide to challenge Cornyn, who is not as disgusting as Cruz, or he could try for President. Either way, it looks like Texas is turning blue or at least purple.
The fact that Tarrant, Hays and Williamson counties went blue is nothing short of amazing, given than no Democrat has won a statewide election since the early 90’s.
I’ve clicked on all 254 counties on these maps, and the super red states are basically rural. The trend is clear - it’s heading left. If Beto decides to go for Cornyn’s seat in 2020 or if he decides to run for President, I think he can carry Texas in 2020. That’s huge. I’m pissed, sad, depressed, angry, and in denial right now, but better days are ahead. Compare the maps and you will see what I mean. Beto needs to revive the energy he created this year, and he will win Texas, either as a Senator or Presidential candidate, in 2020. The GOP cannot win without Texas.
A bit more background about Texas demographics - it’s a huge state. The Panhandle and northwest are extensions of the Great Plains - conservative. East Texas is an extension of the South - conservative. South Texas is Mexico - Democratic. The large population centers are Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin (4 of the 11 largest cities in the country) - all Demo. El Paso is Dem, Fort Worth is now turning Dem. I’ve read that 1000 people a day move to Texas, and they don’t come to the barren rural counties of the Panhandle. They come to the cities
