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General => Current Events => Topic started by: Dave on June 06, 2018, 07:14:53 AM

Title: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 06, 2018, 07:14:53 AM
After a mention on the radio I looked the GPI up. Some surprises.

UK at 41st place, below the likes of Sierra Leone (39). Though you have to look at the ranking criteria carefully. The US (141) hit a low last year due to the partisanship over the upcoming elections it seems.

Russia is ranked 154 and Syria is, unsurprisingly, the worst at 163.

Those are absolute rankings, need to look at the detail to see the size of the gaps.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Peace_Index

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2018-06-06/global-peace-index-world-peace-deteriorates-partisanship-damages-us-score#close-modal
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: jumbojak on June 06, 2018, 02:28:49 PM
I find it amusing that Portugal ranks so low today when forty years ago they had wars going on two continents! It's interesting how quickly things can change.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 06, 2018, 03:01:24 PM
I find it amusing that Portugal ranks so low today when forty years ago they had wars going on two continents! It's interesting how quickly things can change.
I don't think it matters what's going on overseas - just so long as there is peace within the national border. Otherwise America and Britain would have been even further down the list!

It's a complex formula I am guessing - political violence (if only verbal), racism, anti-immigrationism, anti-abortion, religious conflict, sexual harassment . . . There are so many facets that could be applied to "non-peace".
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: xSilverPhinx on June 16, 2018, 01:16:37 PM
Brazil (106) doesn't look very peaceful...
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 16, 2018, 06:27:01 PM
Brazil (106) doesn't look very peaceful...

You seem relatively safe. I haven't heard anything about you being attacked or violated in some way. So at least, even down in the ranks, the peace is still far above anarchy. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. Even if some people are having disagreements about how to get their needs met.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: xSilverPhinx on June 19, 2018, 05:03:20 AM
Brazil (106) doesn't look very peaceful...

You seem relatively safe. I haven't heard anything about you being attacked or violated in some way. So at least, even down in the ranks, the peace is still far above anarchy. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. Even if some people are having disagreements about how to get their needs met.

Hmm...Let's see...there was that time I was mugged on the street...and that other time I was mugged on the street...there was also that time I had a gun pointed at me during yet another mugging...I don't know...those kind of experiences are very common here.

My sister got mugged on the bus, and again while walking from work to the bus stop. Both were at gunpoint. On both occasions she was beaten because she refused to hand over her cellphone. She was lucky, considering.

And that's because we live in a relatively safe neighbourhood. I can only imagine what people who live in marginalised favelas or slums go through.

Brazil isn't at war with another country, but it is at war with crime. The freakin' president put the freakin' army on the streets of Rio to try and control a situation that's long gotten out of hand. The favelas might as well be other countries, with their parallel power...

So yeah. It's not very peaceful here.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 19, 2018, 05:21:10 AM
[...]. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. [...]

What on Earth gives you that idea? It does not apply locally or internationally so far as I can see.

Brazil sounds like it is at the same level of street violence as 18-19thC London, probably the most violent period in that city's history since the Middle Ages. Disadvantage, lack of priviledge, poverty, lack of true representation etc engender two responses, apathy and violence/crime. The lstter seems on the increase globally. Ignore what the politicians say, they bend facts to fit their own ends.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: No one on June 19, 2018, 07:33:40 AM
Peace and humanity can not coexist.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 19, 2018, 01:01:51 PM
Brazil (106) doesn't look very peaceful...

You seem relatively safe. I haven't heard anything about you being attacked or violated in some way. So at least, even down in the ranks, the peace is still far above anarchy. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. Even if some people are having disagreements about how to get their needs met.

Hmm...Let's see...there was that time I was mugged on the street...and that other time I was mugged on the street...there was also that time I had a gun pointed at me during yet another mugging...I don't know...those kind of experiences are very common here.

My sister got mugged on the bus, and again while walking from work to the bus stop. Both were at gunpoint. On both occasions she was beaten because she refused to hand over her cellphone. She was lucky, considering.

And that's because we live in a relatively safe neighbourhood. I can only imagine what people who live in marginalised favelas or slums go through.

Brazil isn't at war with another country, but it is at war with crime. The freakin' president put the freakin' army on the streets of Rio to try and control a situation that's long gotten out of hand. The favelas might as well be other countries, with their parallel power...

So yeah. It's not very peaceful here.

Well sorry to hear that. I also apologize because I thought you were joking at first so I laughed at your first couple sentences. I do remember you speaking about your sister being mugged because of the cell phone back around when I first joined the forum. Sorry things are so out of hand there. But I'm glad you can still find the courage and capacity to work and not be intimidated at the idea of women working. Especially in the field you're in, because I love it so much. So props to you for that :thumbsup2:
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 19, 2018, 01:03:01 PM
[...]. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. [...]

What on Earth gives you that idea? It does not apply locally or internationally so far as I can see.

Brazil sounds like it is at the same level of street violence as 18-19thC London, probably the most violent period in that city's history since the Middle Ages. Disadvantage, lack of priviledge, poverty, lack of true representation etc engender two responses, apathy and violence/crime. The lstter seems on the increase globally. Ignore what the politicians say, they bend facts to fit their own ends.

Because the data shows that murder is becoming less and less. Even in wars and conflicts, the death toll is still lower than 50 years ago. And it's been increasingly so for a long time now.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 19, 2018, 01:37:58 PM
[...]. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. [...]

What on Earth gives you that idea? It does not apply locally or internationally so far as I can see.

Brazil sounds like it is at the same level of street violence as 18-19thC London, probably the most violent period in that city's history since the Middle Ages. Disadvantage, lack of priviledge, poverty, lack of true representation etc engender two responses, apathy and violence/crime. The lstter seems on the increase globally. Ignore what the politicians say, they bend facts to fit their own ends.

Because the data shows that murder is becoming less and less. Even in wars and conflicts, the death toll is still lower than 50 years ago. And it's been increasingly so for a long time now.

Depends on the kind of war. In WW2 attempts were made to target assets, until the fire storm bombing and "thousand bomber" raids starred. In Vietnam carpet bombing killed a great number of people, precision bombing wasn't very precise then but was very expensive. By the time of the first Gulf War cruise missiles and laser guided bombs, both incredibly expensive, and other "asset denial" weapons (like those designed to turn runways into Swiss cheese) reduced the "collateral damage" considerably compared to the damage done to the assets.

The post GW conflicts, where civilians are deliberately used by insurgents and terrorists as shields and targets, very much reduces the possibility of targetting precise targets and reducing "collateral damage." You should add all the deaths by Boko haram, and el Shabaab etc in Africa, they are associates of al Q and Daesh and thus part of the current "distributed war."

Add them all up.

Then there are violent countries like Mexico, the Philipines etc. All part of the global picture even if the rate of murder has reduced in some individual countries. Chances are those will go up again as the social and financial pressures increase.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 19, 2018, 04:40:40 PM
[...]. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. [...]

What on Earth gives you that idea? It does not apply locally or internationally so far as I can see.

Brazil sounds like it is at the same level of street violence as 18-19thC London, probably the most violent period in that city's history since the Middle Ages. Disadvantage, lack of priviledge, poverty, lack of true representation etc engender two responses, apathy and violence/crime. The lstter seems on the increase globally. Ignore what the politicians say, they bend facts to fit their own ends.

Because the data shows that murder is becoming less and less. Even in wars and conflicts, the death toll is still lower than 50 years ago. And it's been increasingly so for a long time now.

Depends on the kind of war. In WW2 attempts were made to target assets, until the fire storm bombing and "thousand bomber" raids starred. In Vietnam carpet bombing killed a great number of people, precision bombing wasn't very precise then but was very expensive. By the time of the first Gulf War cruise missiles and laser guided bombs, both incredibly expensive, and other "asset denial" weapons (like those designed to turn runways into Swiss cheese) reduced the "collateral damage" considerably compared to the damage done to the assets.

The post GW conflicts, where civilians are deliberately used by insurgents and terrorists as shields and targets, very much reduces the possibility of targetting precise targets and reducing "collateral damage." You should add all the deaths by Boko haram, and el Shabaab etc in Africa, they are associates of al Q and Daesh and thus part of the current "distributed war."

Add them all up.

Then there are violent countries like Mexico, the Philipines etc. All part of the global picture even if the rate of murder has reduced in some individual countries. Chances are those will go up again as the social and financial pressures increase.

The global murder rate and death rate has been declining for years.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 19, 2018, 04:51:01 PM
[...]. The trend seems to be going to world peace still at this moment. [...]

What on Earth gives you that idea? It does not apply locally or internationally so far as I can see.

Brazil sounds like it is at the same level of street violence as 18-19thC London, probably the most violent period in that city's history since the Middle Ages. Disadvantage, lack of priviledge, poverty, lack of true representation etc engender two responses, apathy and violence/crime. The lstter seems on the increase globally. Ignore what the politicians say, they bend facts to fit their own ends.

Because the data shows that murder is becoming less and less. Even in wars and conflicts, the death toll is still lower than 50 years ago. And it's been increasingly so for a long time now.

Depends on the kind of war. In WW2 attempts were made to target assets, until the fire storm bombing and "thousand bomber" raids starred. In Vietnam carpet bombing killed a great number of people, precision bombing wasn't very precise then but was very expensive. By the time of the first Gulf War cruise missiles and laser guided bombs, both incredibly expensive, and other "asset denial" weapons (like those designed to turn runways into Swiss cheese) reduced the "collateral damage" considerably compared to the damage done to the assets.

The post GW conflicts, where civilians are deliberately used by insurgents and terrorists as shields and targets, very much reduces the possibility of targetting precise targets and reducing "collateral damage." You should add all the deaths by Boko haram, and el Shabaab etc in Africa, they are associates of al Q and Daesh and thus part of the current "distributed war."

Add them all up.

Then there are violent countries like Mexico, the Philipines etc. All part of the global picture even if the rate of murder has reduced in some individual countries. Chances are those will go up again as the social and financial pressures increase.

The global murder rate and death rate has been declining for years.

Please quote me sources for your assertion, I am interested.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 19, 2018, 05:13:18 PM
Taking a quick look for sources the statistics seem to mainly concentrate on "intentional homicide"
Quote
Intentional homicide is defined as unlawful death purposefully inflicted on a person by another person. Scope, coverage and timeliness of the data. Scope. Data represent the number of homicides per 100,000 population as captured by different sources of national and international administrative statistics.
The quote is from a UN pdf and I cannot easily cite it but its title is: IHS methodology.pdf

Most national stats involve those homicides within the above definition and within the national borders I would guess, this should include terrorist action regardless of who the perpetrator is or their motive(s).

Wish that I could find some "variation by year" tables! Lot of sums involved trying to extract that and most figures that I have found do not cover the last few years well. Quite a lot has happened since 2004!

If you can find me reliable sources, Arturo, I would very much appreciate it. No media articles or opinions please, the primary stuff only. But, is violent death at the hands of others, by all means, on the rise or decline I wonder.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 19, 2018, 06:40:58 PM
I'll have to look for it. It was a couple years ago when I found it. It may have changed since then but I doubt by much, even if President Chester Cheetah is in office.
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Arturo on June 19, 2018, 07:09:51 PM
I found a few resources but I'll just go ahead and put the global peace index itself for 2018. It has a sliding scale and you can change the indicator to search for murder only which they define as "death deliberately inflicted on a person by another person". The scores go from red to green color scale to make it more easy to read. Green being the most peaceful, red being the most violent. But you can always look at the ratio they put next to the country names as well. The lower the score, the most peaceful. And going from 2008 to 2018, the top rated country has continued to have a lower score.

http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/global-peace-index/

Other resources I found.

https://ourworldindata.org/slides/war-and-violence/#/title-slide
https://ourworldindata.org/homicides#homicide-rates-in-five-western-european-regions-1300-2010-max-roserref


And you can see here in this wiki article that the total deaths in the most violent places are even decreasing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts#Deaths_by_country
Title: Re: Global Peace Index (2017)
Post by: Dave on June 19, 2018, 08:28:15 PM
Thanks, Arturo, I will take a look at those later.

One does wonder if, in some areas, the number of violent deaths is decreasing because so many of the violent people involved in the conflicts have been killed in the previous year or two!

The death rates in all conflicts, including drug wars, probably drop off as one side or the other reaches a critically low number of active combatants. Look back on those numbers from 5 or 10 years hence to get a better context.