The gray lump:
How DO stupid people do their math?
5 out of 4 people have trouble with math. It's hard.
If you use numbers and equations to prove a point, you must be able to defend them, no? Thus, if you are one of those five out of four, perhaps you should not make your points using mathematics, yes?
Having a margin of error >49% is, frankly, beyond embarrassing. Even if I
draw numbers straight out of my ass, I will come as near as makes no difference fifty percent points closer to the actual probability of a winged puma being born to a wingless one. Watch;
Let us assume that in order for a puma to be born with wings, its mother DOES need to be on top of a telephone pole. In addition, the child needs three separate genetic mutations, which, for the purpose of this thought experiment, are deliberately few and common.
3% of all pumas have the first mutation.
20% of those have the second.
One in one thousand of all pumas has the third.
Let us further assume that one in one hundred million pumas is born on topa' telephone pole and that that, as stated, is a requirement for growing wings... Why not? This whole thing is cringe-worthy already.
This yields some straight forward multiplication;
(In this day and age, it's not cheating if you use a calculator for this part)
You see? My ass is pretty much 50pp tighter than the loose and floppy ass of the poster-maker. Also note that my birth-on-a-telephone-pole demand was meant to function a tiny little bit as a corrective force, thus lessening the embarrassment-factor of my
own answer, which is more than likely off by... A few
decimals, do let us call it.
That was math. Now is where I would normally start discussing evolution and how the math in question relates to it.
EDIT: Polished and clarified some language and dependencies. Should make sense in a this-is-purely-an-example sort of way now.
Also, do please correct my math if it's wrong; I'm not very strong in probability calculations.