Author Topic: Oh, shit!  (Read 589 times)

Dave

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Oh, shit!
« on: April 07, 2017, 04:11:21 AM »
Well, things in Syria have moved up a ratchet or three.

Trump authorised an attack on a base of Russia's de-facto ally, Syria. Without UN sanction the US once again acts as policeman, or is it vigilante?

Ignoring the fact that this is a total reversal of Trump's attitude pre-election, having both said America should not take this dort of action nor act as global copper, and ignoring thst Assad needs a good dlapping, it is fraught with problems.

Trump says it is in America's interest. How?  Syria is not a direct threat. Currently the biggest potential threat comes from Sunni Islam, Al Q, Daesh and their franchisees. Russia is as anti them as the rest of the non-Islamic world - it faces the same threats. We need Russia on side in this matter. The major threat to the West from the Syrian war is from militants hidden amongst emmigrants and total collapse of the country allowing the militants more options.

I know there are basically two options, ignore or take action over the gas attacks - which, in sheer numbers killed and damage to property, amenities etc, pale into insignificance when compared to barrel bombing and the use of bomblets and mines etc. Bombing a hospital is at least as heinous and many hospitals have been bombed.

I await Russia's considered reaction with condiderable tredidation. Being a country where "face" is important can they ignore an attack on a "friend" whom tbey wish to accomodate their, very politically and strategically important to them, Mediterranean fleet?
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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2017, 05:10:47 AM »
War with Russia? Very Likely
But, uh...well there it is.
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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2017, 06:06:39 AM »
A very bad decision on the part of the Trump person. Reported 50 minuteman missiles were released on one of  Assads' bases thought to contain chemical agents. 

That show of modest force probably cost 50 million and the ass hole commander in chief and his consorts want to save money by eliminating the National endowments for the arts and National Public Radio and Planned Parenthood, and some more useful entities. The lunatics also want to "save" money by lowering taxes. Trickle down economy don' you know?

We have two crisis possibilities going in the far east. That would be the China synthetic Islands along with the delicate nature of the one China/divided China Taiwan problem. The most scary right now is the machinations of the psychopathic leader of North Korea. We have a long term commitment to the South Koreans. If the crazy guy gets so worked up that he fires missiles into Japan or South Korea....then the shit has hit the fan.  We do not need to get involved in another theater like Syria. We have enough on our plate as it is.

Tank

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2017, 06:48:43 AM »
A very bad decision on the part of the Trump person. Reported 50 minuteman missiles were released on one of  Assads' bases thought to contain chemical agents. 

That show of modest force probably cost 50 million and the ass hole commander in chief and his consorts want to save money by eliminating the National endowments for the arts and National Public Radio and Planned Parenthood, and some more useful entities. The lunatics also want to "save" money by lowering taxes. Trickle down economy don' you know?

We have two crisis possibilities going in the far east. That would be the China synthetic Islands along with the delicate nature of the one China/divided China Taiwan problem. The most scary right now is the machinations of the psychopathic leader of North Korea. We have a long term commitment to the South Koreans. If the crazy guy gets so worked up that he fires missiles into Japan or South Korea....then the shit has hit the fan.  We do not need to get involved in another theater like Syria. We have enough on our plate as it is.

59 cruise missiles with conventional warheads. Not 50 Minuteman ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. You're channelling Trumps dreams there. :grin:
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Dave

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2017, 10:22:27 AM »
I wish some politicians had brains.

One verdion of the "gas attack" is that conventional weapons set off gas bombs stock piled by militants. One refutstion of this is that sarin is a binsry wespon, needs the mixing of two components, and that the useful life of the mixed components is very short. Thus it cannot be stored in a weaponised state.

Some Brit politician, missed his name, who is evidently against this action, looked back to the Gulf War and the fear of gas bring used there. He quoted Hansard, the official record of parliamentary procedings in the UK, as saying that if sarin wespons are bombed "they ecplode".  That is so ambiguous. The sarin components are volatile, they burn very well. So is this "explosion" caused by the combination or by the components catching fire?

It is this kind of imprecise trash talk that has given politics its power over the minds of the masses. Sow the seed with rhetoric, mob idiocy will do the rest.

Later: just listened to a replay of the interview mentioned above, the interviwee was actually a former ambassador to Syria.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 11:14:34 AM by Gloucester »
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Dave

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2017, 11:21:20 AM »
More political language.

A Syrian spokesman called the US an ally of Daesh because the sirfield they hit was used against those militants. I.e. they did Daesh et al a favour.

Russia has now scrapped the agreement to co-ordinate flights with the US and the UK to prevent conflict with their operations. This means the West cannot safely attack the militants. I.e. they have done Daesh et al a favour.
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Tank

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2017, 12:52:04 PM »
I wish some politicians had brains.

One verdion of the "gas attack" is that conventional weapons set off gas bombs stock piled by militants. One refutstion of this is that sarin is a binsry wespon, needs the mixing of two components, and that the useful life of the mixed components is very short. Thus it cannot be stored in a weaponised state.

Some Brit politician, missed his name, who is evidently against this action, looked back to the Gulf War and the fear of gas bring used there. He quoted Hansard, the official record of parliamentary procedings in the UK, as saying that if sarin wespons are bombed "they ecplode".  That is so ambiguous. The sarin components are volatile, they burn very well. So is this "explosion" caused by the combination or by the components catching fire?

It is this kind of imprecise trash talk that has given politics its power over the minds of the masses. Sow the seed with rhetoric, mob idiocy will do the rest.

Later: just listened to a replay of the interview mentioned above, the interviwee was actually a former ambassador to Syria.

Sarin can by created as a finished product OR as a binary weapon.

"Along with nerve agents such as tabun and VX, sarin can have a maximum shelf-life of five years.[27] Sarin's otherwise-short shelf life can be extended by increasing the purity of the precursor and intermediates and incorporating stabilizers such as tributylamine. In some formulations, tributylamine is replaced by diisopropylcarbodiimide (DIC), allowing sarin to be stored in aluminium casings. In binary chemical weapons, the two precursors are stored separately in the same shell and mixed to form the agent immediately before or when the shell is in flight. This approach has the dual benefit of solving the stability issue and increasing the safety of sarin munitions."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin#Degradation_and_shelf_life
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Tank

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2017, 12:57:52 PM »
War with Russia? Very Likely

I do not agree. Both Russia and America have too much to lose from a direct hot war. There could be proxy wars but direct confrontation is virtually impossible given the consequences to both sides. IMO Russia took this opportunity to test Trumps rhetoric. And frankly I approve the result although not the Russian actions. Americas response was spot on. Shame people had to die.
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Ecurb Noselrub

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2017, 01:02:02 PM »
Hillary Clinton suggested the very same response earlier in the day.  It was measured and appropriate - Assad should have been stopped long ago.  Obama missed the mark by not taking some action. Assad is a pure murderer.  If we don't draw the line somewhere, this horror will continue to spread.  I'm no Trump supporter, but I can't really criticize this move.  Of course, time will tell what the consequences will be.  Nothing is ever solved in the ME.  At least Turkey and the Saudis are agreeing with us.  In the ME, people and governments respect power.  This was a power move.

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2017, 02:29:33 PM »
We  know that the Muslim rebels have chemical weapons and they'd used them in the past against other rebels. I assume that even ISIS has them. It makes not much sense that Assad would have used chemical weapons this time. Doesn't make much sense, since he is winning the war with the Russians. Why would he want to provoke the USA?   
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Dave

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2017, 03:19:10 PM »
We  know that the Muslim rebels have chemical weapons and they'd used them in the past against other rebels. I assume that even ISIS has them. It makes not much sense that Assad would have used chemical weapons this time. Doesn't make much sense, since he is winning the war with the Russians. Why would he want to provoke the USA?

I did wonder something similar in later reflection. However there seems to have been something of a history of "retribution" strategy and pushing boundaries on Assad's part. Coupled with what always seems to me as a "medieval" mindset in how to carry out warfare - you have "obliterate" your enemy, and all his family and friends, because blood debt never dies. Never give the enemy a chance to bounce back, never give an intergenerational feud a chance to develop.

Also with Russia holding his back he msy have felt "invincible". Now he may find just how much of a friend Russia really is. IIRC they have slready held him back a couple of times.

China is taking a fairly neutral stance, that just about leaves Russia and Iran as the two supporters of a regime that is not looked upon kindly by the majority of the world's important players. Will it, one day, dawn on Russia that they will continue to be side-lined (their pet complaint) for as long as they support rogue regimes?

Yet, we all need to be united against militant Islam of all types.
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Dave

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2017, 03:29:28 PM »
I wish some politicians had brains.

One verdion of the "gas attack" is that conventional weapons set off gas bombs stock piled by militants. One refutstion of this is that sarin is a binsry wespon, needs the mixing of two components, and that the useful life of the mixed components is very short. Thus it cannot be stored in a weaponised state.

Some Brit politician, missed his name, who is evidently against this action, looked back to the Gulf War and the fear of gas bring used there. He quoted Hansard, the official record of parliamentary procedings in the UK, as saying that if sarin wespons are bombed "they ecplode".  That is so ambiguous. The sarin components are volatile, they burn very well. So is this "explosion" caused by the combination or by the components catching fire?

It is this kind of imprecise trash talk that has given politics its power over the minds of the masses. Sow the seed with rhetoric, mob idiocy will do the rest.

Later: just listened to a replay of the interview mentioned above, the interviwee was actually a former ambassador to Syria.

Sarin can by created as a finished product OR as a binary weapon.

"Along with nerve agents such as tabun and VX, sarin can have a maximum shelf-life of five years.[27] Sarin's otherwise-short shelf life can be extended by increasing the purity of the precursor and intermediates and incorporating stabilizers such as tributylamine. In some formulations, tributylamine is replaced by diisopropylcarbodiimide (DIC), allowing sarin to be stored in aluminium casings. In binary chemical weapons, the two precursors are stored separately in the same shell and mixed to form the agent immediately before or when the shell is in flight. This approach has the dual benefit of solving the stability issue and increasing the safety of sarin munitions."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin#Degradation_and_shelf_life

Thanks for that, Tank, shoulda looked it up meself  :redface: It was oh oh very dark, during a bad night, when I heard the news.

One does wobnder wgether or not the militants have the means though. Crude chlorine weapons seem to be more in the line for those working under the conditions pertaining. Also the one reporter who got into the area seemed to think there was no evidence of a manufactory, assuming he knew what to look for. Wonder if he got out with any soil, or other, samples?
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Ecurb Noselrub

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2017, 04:02:19 PM »
We  know that the Muslim rebels have chemical weapons and they'd used them in the past against other rebels. I assume that even ISIS has them. It makes not much sense that Assad would have used chemical weapons this time. Doesn't make much sense, since he is winning the war with the Russians. Why would he want to provoke the USA?

Because he thought he could get away with it, since he thought the Russians covered him and that Trump would do nothing.  He may have miscalculated.

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2017, 04:55:35 PM »
We  know that the Muslim rebels have chemical weapons and they'd used them in the past against other rebels. I assume that even ISIS has them. It makes not much sense that Assad would have used chemical weapons this time. Doesn't make much sense, since he is winning the war with the Russians. Why would he want to provoke the USA?

Because he thought he could get away with it, since he thought the Russians covered him and that Trump would do nothing.  He may have miscalculated.

Russians like Assad. Russians like Trump.

Trump needs a smokescreen.

Russians provide nerve gas to Assad. He deploys it from an airbase that he doesn't need.
(and Russians were on the airbase during the loading of the nerve gas)

Trump responds predictably by bombing the airbase.  Since the Russians were warned, they tell the Syrians to leave with them. Minimal losses for Assad.

... aaaaannnnnddd. We're now talking about something other than Russian collusion.

Putin's pulling all the strings now.

Dave

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Re: Oh, shit!
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2017, 05:46:14 PM »
We  know that the Muslim rebels have chemical weapons and they'd used them in the past against other rebels. I assume that even ISIS has them. It makes not much sense that Assad would have used chemical weapons this time. Doesn't make much sense, since he is winning the war with the Russians. Why would he want to provoke the USA?

Tom, when you say "rebels" do you mean "dissenting Syrians"?  Rightfully most of the media have tried to keep "rebels" for Syrians and "militants" for Al Q, Daesh etc. Assad tends to call them all "terrorists" regardless of the accepted use of that term - just so he can feel justified in treating them all the same and accuse the West of supporting "terrorism".

Do you have a reference that the rebel Syrians have used nerve gas? Or was it the militants against the Syrian rebels?
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