North Korea and USA shenanigans...

[Asmodean]

Mmh... Skeptical.

There are no indications, of which I'm aware, of the North Korean military getting anything but stronger in the recent years. The Eastern Bloc armed forces were not nearly as fanatical, or lived in nearly as much of a bubble.

[Dave]

Mmh... Skeptical.

There are no indications, of which I'm aware, of the North Korean military getting anything but stronger in the recent years. The Eastern Bloc armed forces were not nearly as fanatical, or lived in nearly as much of a bubble.

There was an article on the radio a vouple of weeks ago where the reporter said that the NK border guards soent more time watching one another, so many attempted desertions, than watching what the foreigners were up to. IIRC there was also a feeling thst they did not want to fight the South Koreans - too many family ties, which are strong forces in Asia.

They may have numbers but whether thry have discipline and the will . . . Remember Iraq when they had agents behind the ftontbline to shoot any deserters? I get the feeling NK suffers the same problem, which is basically unstable.

[Asmodean]

Unstable? I would not say that. Unsustainable would be a more accurate description, I think.

Yes, DRPK border guards do watch each other from their posts, but it's more proactive behavior rather than a reaction to mass desertions (They want to prevent any and all desertions). DRPK does not have a mass military flight problem. If they did, whole battalions would cross the border unchecked by their own.

I think comparisons with Iraq, The Third Reich or other such heaps of bloody mess are at their core wrong. Look at what we do know about DRPK. It's very different a system to any of those used for comparison. They are easily the most isolated nation on Earth, even though they maintain relations, often amicable enough at that, with far more countries than they do not. Their propaganda machine is often justified by the rhetoric of their enemies. they are surrounded by mostly-unfriendly regimes. If anything, you may want to compare them with Burma to some degree... People bothering me again. I'll return to this when I'm able.

[Dave]

One could argue that instability and unsustainability hold hands when it comes to running nation states, one follows the other whichever leads.

Pergaps direct comparidon between regijes is a tad unsafe but, human and personal political nature being what it is, perhaps one can connect enough dots to "morph" one overall shape to another. I would not attempt to match, say, Iran onto a common shape, much closer to bring a democracy, but Saddam's Iraq might be a better fit. Never gonna be perfect but...

Trouble is that exercise tends to be hindsight, not enough concrete matches to predict, just take a guess. History is only of use if it is a tool to make useful predictions.

Where is Hari Seldon when we need him!?

[Asmodean]

Where indeed..? 

Or M.C. Escher. He would do as well, what with the mental contortionism his paintings invoke.

Yes, I agree that unsustainability leads to instability. DRPK... Not there yet. They were on the verge, but Kim the Third managed to consolidate power, and the way in which he did that did not seem to bite him on the ass too much.

My thoughts are that he's trying to seem, possibly even be, more like grandpa than his father. The people of North Korea may well be willing to forgive a whole fucking lot for that alone.