Author Topic: The elephant in the room.  (Read 538 times)

Dave

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The elephant in the room.
« on: April 14, 2018, 08:36:53 AM »
Well, looks like this particular elephant - the prospect of WW3 - has sat back on his stool in the corner.

Despite the rhetoric from Russia, that they would shoot down inconing missioes and, possibly, attack the points of their launch,  despite the fact that they were informed about the attacks beforehand, they kept their heads down. Their aircraft would have caused target conflict for the Syrian air defence systems so they were only employed after the attack - symbolic action.

This seems to have been more of a face saving tactical attack rather than strategic for the West. Having shouted their heads off our so-called leaders had to back it up with a limited action. It will make little difference to the final Syrian outcome but, represents more of a sense of  political outrage on the part of the West, political rhetoric made concrete as it were.

The conventional Russian forces are no match at all for tge Americans alone, they spend about one tenth on "defence" that America does and have one, slightly under-equiped, carrier to America's twenty. The last time it was used it only hsd one third of its compliment of aircraft.

Long term economic sanctions will have more effect, Syria is going to need a vast input to put itself back together, can Russia and Iran fund that? Will Turkey finally fully turn their backs on the West by supporting Assad directly? But that would mean mostly Sunni Turkey allying with Shia Iraq, which will further upset relations in the Muslim world.

I am inclined to be a bit concerned about Iran's threat, in terms of possible covert or proxy, possibly terrorist, action.
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Tom62

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2018, 03:22:26 PM »
I think the attack was the dumbest thing and most illegal act done by Trump, May and Macon so far.

No evidence has been presented that Assad used these chemical weapons.It also doesn't seem to make any sense, because Russia and Assad were almost done with winning the Syrian war. The chemical attack could easily have been another false flag operation by Islamic Jihadists, who are known to have used chemical weapons in the past.
 
Any other outcome of the Syrian war than Assad and Russia winning it, would make things extremely worse for the Syrian people and the west. People in Syria are sick of the 7 year war and want nothing but peace.
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2018, 04:22:35 PM »
I think the attack was the dumbest thing and most illegal act done by Trump, May and Macon so far.

No evidence has been presented that Assad used these chemical weapons.It also doesn't seem to make any sense, because Russia and Assad were almost done with winning the Syrian war. The chemical attack could easily have been another false flag operation by Islamic Jihadists, who are known to have used chemical weapons in the past.
 
Any other outcome of the Syrian war than Assad and Russia winning it, would make things extremely worse for the Syrian people and the west. People in Syria are sick of the 7 year war and want nothing but peace.

I tend you agree with you, Tom. Unless there is uncontrovertible evidence that Assad was the guilty pwrty, evidence they have - do far as we know - not presented to  anything like an objective judge or body, this was a stupid move that will probably backfire in some way. The next few days will possibly iron out some of the claims and counterclaims as to what damage was done - but this was a token raid in most ways, a way for the politicians to vent their spleen.

But I feel it will also discredit them, put them into the same aggressive class as Putin - pity they do not have half his cunning all put together. I have nobidea what tne final outcome will be but I think some arses are going to get bitten. I do think the Russians akso ended up looking a bit idiotic, they seem to have blamed everyone but the most likely parties.

Let's hope that the OPCW find something definite, one way or the other, but Russia pulled their teeth some tine ago.  If no traces of chemical weapons are found I hope May gets kicked out - not that we have a single politician that I would vote into the top seat. Tge place has veen crawling with Russian and Syrian personnel so the chances of finding reliable hardware evidence will probably be low. Unless any chemical evidence has a "fingerpriht" it will not be of a lot of political use. The Russians and Syrians have said there is no evidence of chemical wespons so they cannot have used masking or neutralising chemicals since, hopefully, they will also be looked for.

Be interesting to see just how much access and freedom of action the UN and/or OPCW teams actually get. I trust none of the major parties to tell the truth here.
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Tom62

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2018, 12:22:28 PM »
If you can believe The Independent, only 28% of the British population was in favour of the attack. May didn't consult the British parliament about the attack (which I consider to be an act of war) either.
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2018, 01:12:24 PM »
If you can believe The Independent, only 28% of the British population was in favour of the attack. May didn't consult the British parliament about the attack (which I consider to be an act of war) either.

They did not ask ne, so add 0.00001% or something to that number!

There is no kegal requirement to seek oarliament's approval if there is an obvious danger to the nation. The government seem to be arguing that the use if chemical weapons is such a threat. They also described the incident in Salisbury ascan act of chemical sttack - in this case it was on British soil and endangered others than the targets - since Russia is accused of being behind that attack on our sovereign territory why are we not blowing Russian labs up?

This is purely political, and don't forget it is politicians who start wars, not people, not even armed forces (except by accident or due to insanity). It will have no effect on the outcone of the Syrian war, nor have any good effect on our standing and reputation in the eye of the Shia nations. So far the major  terrorist groups are Sunni. Iran, since it supports the Iraq Shia majority administration, is supposed to be an ally against Daesh et al in Iraq.

These are people who people for whom violence against non-combstants seens to be a matter of standard strategy. Muslims killed by bombs are martyrs for their own side and martyrdom is honourable. Non-Muslims are, to some, legitimate targets, combatants or not, anywhere in the world
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2018, 11:07:56 PM »
Just hesrd on the BBC that the Kremlin has promised cyber sttacks in retaliation fir the missiles in Syria. "Russian troll" attacks up by 70% and the head of GCHQ and others are on standby.

Cyberwar 1 may be starting, but nothing online in Google News yet.
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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2018, 11:11:35 PM »
Wasn't, like, the Cold War supposed to have ended decades ago?  :eyebrow:
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2018, 11:40:26 PM »
Wasn't, like, the Cold War supposed to have ended decades ago?  :eyebrow:

Things have been getting colder since Putin took command. He is a sort of hybrid soviet-capitalist-narcissist-nationalist trying to force the world to accept Russia as more than just another nuclear power with a seriously dodgy ecconomy.
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Icarus

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2018, 11:48:28 PM »
I agree that the attack was not the smartest move. Not to be crude about it, but what about the substantial cost of doing so.  Those missiles are not cheap. There were, by one account, 105 of them (which seems an exaggeration).  Not just the missiles but getting the equipment into place for delivery of the missiles was also a cost factor and possibly a bad strategic move.  More than a modicum of risk was also a factor worthy of careful attention.  If the Russians actually did retaliate, as they said they would, then that would have been a shit hits the fan moment.  The ready-fire-aim concept is bad news.

Up for discussion is the question: Are we our brothers keeper?  Should we even be involved in someone elses fight?  WhyTF are we still in Afghanistan, an unconquerable place, as evidenced by the long term history of the place.  We went there to find and destroy Osama and eventually killed him but not in Afghanistan.  Is Syria a strategically important place that has some bearing on our own national security? 

xSilverPhinx

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2018, 12:05:25 AM »
Up for discussion is the question: Are we our brothers keeper?  Should we even be involved in someone elses fight?  WhyTF are we still in Afghanistan, an unconquerable place, as evidenced by the long term history of the place.  We went there to find and destroy Osama and eventually killed him but not in Afghanistan.  Is Syria a strategically important place that has some bearing on our own national security?

I think that's just a story the governments tell their peoples to help the naive sleep at night --  that military interventions in other countries are to "help" civilians of other countries. Everyone, the US, UK and France has a stake in it and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are actually mostly economic interests that propel these never-ending wars.

How would the US economy fare if there was no war? :notsure:
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2018, 12:09:04 AM »
I agree that the attack was not the smartest move. Not to be crude about it, but what about the substantial cost of doing so.  Those missiles are not cheap. There were, by one account, 105 of them (which seems an exaggeration).  Not just the missiles but getting the equipment into place for delivery of the missiles was also a cost factor and possibly a bad strategic move.  More than a modicum of risk was also a factor worthy of careful attention.  If the Russians actually did retaliate, as they said they would, then that would have been a shit hits the fan moment.  The ready-fire-aim concept is bad news.

Up for discussion is the question: Are we our brothers keeper?  Should we even be involved in someone elses fight?  WhyTF are we still in Afghanistan, an unconquerable place, as evidenced by the long term history of the place.  We went there to find and destroy Osama and eventually killed him but not in Afghanistan.  Is Syria a strategically important place that has some bearing on our own national security?

One aspect of Syria is that they will give Russia a permanent base in the Med. Cosying up to Erdoğan (even though Turkey shot down a Russian fighter) also keeps the Bosphorus avaiable to them. Plus anything that is uncomfortable to the West is good for Russia.
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Dave

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2018, 12:14:51 AM »
Up for discussion is the question: Are we our brothers keeper?  Should we even be involved in someone elses fight?  WhyTF are we still in Afghanistan, an unconquerable place, as evidenced by the long term history of the place.  We went there to find and destroy Osama and eventually killed him but not in Afghanistan.  Is Syria a strategically important place that has some bearing on our own national security?

I think that's just a story the governments tell their peoples to help the naive sleep at night --  that military interventions in other countries are to "help" civilians of other countries. Everyone, the US, UK and France has a stake in it and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are actually mostly economic interests that propel these never-ending wars.

How would the US economy fare if there was no war? :notsure:

If perfect and everlasting peace broke out the initial hit would be about $50bn and hundreds of thousands of jobs and a rapidly growing welfare cost. Takes time to get the balance, long enough for a forced election and/or civil unrest/war.
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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2018, 12:24:01 AM »
I listen to what you wise ones all have to say, especially the question of being our brothers’ keeper or not, but all the while my thoughts are with the ordinary people similar to me who have and continue to have so much suffering, bereavement and displacement. The ordinary citizens, as always, do the suffering for the megalomaniacs at the top safely in their bunkers/palaces etc. It makes me weep and it seems to me they get the tragedy no matter who’s dropping the bombs.
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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2018, 12:27:03 AM »
I'm just glad the Syrian's didn't bomb us here in the U.S. for poisoning the children of Flint, MI or gassing the natives at Standing Rock.
I'm truly sorry, but I can't keep explaining this simple thing to you over and over again hoping that you'll finally understand something so simple and obvious.
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Tom62

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Re: The elephant in the room.
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2018, 10:09:55 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised, if the following video is real. I do however find it scary that I trust the Russians more than our own western governments.

The universe never did make sense; I suspect it was built on government contract.
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