Gettysburg's Influence (Not the Speech)

[Ecurb Noselrub]

Consider:

1. Lee wins at Gettysburg instead of losing.

2. Lee goes on to occupy Washington, D.C., leading to an end of the war with the U.S. being divided into two nations.

3. The USA does not develop into a world power as a result.

4. Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany develop unabated, and eventually control everything from Britain to Australia.

5. Slavery continues as an institution in the Confederacy, and ultimately the Confederacy finds that it has more in common with the Nazis than with their former countrymen to the north.

Speculative, I know, but military victory has more influence on morals and societal mores than we often give it credit for.

[Sandra Craft]

3. The USA does not develop into a world power as a result.

I don't know if we can assume this would be true.  One of the reasons for the war was that the North felt the South was a drag on them economically and industrially because of being slave-based.  With the South cut off and turning into a poor cousin, the North could have taken off on its own.  The country would have been smaller and had that poor relation problem, but these were the same problems England had and it sure didn't stand in their way much.

[xSilverPhinx]

Speculative, I know, but military victory has more influence on morals and societal mores than we often give it credit for.

Agreed, and it depends on the practical outcomes and goals. If the new military power doesn't have any need to change the status quo that much, there won't be a huge shift in morals, unless as a reactionary backlash.

As for the slaves, I don't think it would've lasted that long even if the south had won the war. If I remember correctly England was pushing for them to be freed, they were a whole potential and untapped market. So there was that external and very powerful influence that needs to be taken into consideration. There's no reason to assume that would've changed if the south had won. Other countries would soon join the English as competition between them grew.

Going on to speculate: being the weaker military power, maybe the south should've promised the slaves their freedom en masse if they fought for them, freed them, and the tapped into them themselves. Damn landowners usually get in the way...

[OldGit]

One main thing Davis and Lee hoped to gain from the invasion was recognition from England and France.  With their support, the CSA might well have been able to make secession stick.  Also, they hoped to stir up the Copperheads, which would have helped.

What interests me is precisely how Lee might have won.  You can't assume that a breakthrough by Pickett on the 3rd would have settled things.  IMO a time-traveller's best hope would have been to stop Jackson getting shot at Chancellorsville.  Many errors at Gettysburg would not have been made if he had been second in command.  Eg late on the 1st, Lee didn't firmly order Ewell to take Cemetery Ridge.  On the 2nd, Longstreet didn't attack until mid-afternoon.  Lee was too vague and soft with those generals, being used to his almost telepathic rapport with Jackson.
Another key decision was Lee's allowing JEB Stuart to wander off alone from June 28th.  The ensuing accidental, bungled engagement would not have occurred if Lee had had proper reconnaissance.

Gettysburg is one of history's greatest 'if only...' battles.

[Ecurb Noselrub]

3. The USA does not develop into a world power as a result.

I don't know if we can assume this would be true.  One of the reasons for the war was that the North felt the South was a drag on them economically and industrially because of being slave-based.  With the South cut off and turning into a poor cousin, the North could have taken off on its own.  The country would have been smaller and had that poor relation problem, but these were the same problems England had and it sure didn't stand in their way much.

There's lots of speculation in my scenario. But it's hard for me to imagine a North defeated and occupied by the South being able to "take off" for some time.  I doubt that the South would have tried to "reconstruct" the North, but such a defeat would have certainly set the North back for years.  For the time being slavery would have been extended at least all the way across the southern US, including California.  The world would have been a different place.

[Ecurb Noselrub]

Gettysburg is one of history's greatest 'if only...' battles.

Here's a cool battle simulation game. Try it!

http://www.military.com/New-Gettysburg-Game/1,16378,gettysburg-main.htm,,00.html

[Firebird]

I'd recommend reading the Southern Victory series by Harry Turtledove. His specialty is alternate history, and he imagines what would have happened had the Union forces not found a copy of General Lee's combat orders lying on the ground before the Battle of Antietam. Similar to your scenario, the South wins the Civil War, and the repercussions on history are fascinating, especially when it comes to who fights on which side in the two World Wars. Much, much different in his mind.
Even if the South had won, they would never have been able to occupy the North. I don't believe they would have wanted to either; they wanted to be left alone to continue their way of life, which unfortunately would have included the continuation of slavery.

[Sandra Craft]

Even if the South had won, they would never have been able to occupy the North. I don't believe they would have wanted to either; they wanted to be left alone to continue their way of life, which unfortunately would have included the continuation of slavery.

That's what I was thinking.

[OldGit]

I'd recommend reading the Southern Victory series by Harry Turtledove. His specialty is alternate history, and he imagines what would have happened had the Union forces not found a copy of General Lee's combat orders lying on the ground before the Battle of Antietam.

I've got them.  The finding of the dropped battle plan was ingenious.  IRL, however, it might not have made all that much difference.  McClellan took the best part of a day to act on the information and so didn't exploit Lee's dispersal to the full extent.  He managed to get himself pretty well thrashed anyhow.

[Icarus]

Old Git; You have an impressive knowledge of civil war military matters. How is it that an old Brit heathen knows more US history than 99% of the living Americans?  You probably know more about the battle of Thermopolae,  and the Mongol conquests than most of us too. (how to spell Thermopo..?) Good on you!

[Recusant]

Consider:

1. Lee wins at Gettysburg instead of losing.

All very well, but if the Confederate army loses anything approaching the numbers they did at Gettysburg, it would be a Pyrrhic victory. The south could not afford to lose men at all. Also, the loss of Vicksburg, which occurred concurrently with Gettysburg, was a huge blow to the south. The Confederacy would have had to have won both of these battles to change the direction of the war, which had already turned against them, in my opinion.

2. Lee goes on to occupy Washington, D.C., leading to an end of the war with the U.S. being divided into two nations.

This assumes that things go extremely well for the Confederate army after Gettysburg, but OK. As long as the US (the north) continues to exist as a political entity, I don't think that the rest of your scenario works.

3. The USA does not develop into a world power as a result.

Unless the south invaded the north and destroyed their industrial capacity, I honestly don't see any reason that the remaining states of the US, (including those on the west coast) cannot go on to become a world power. The south, while an important producer of cotton, really wasn't that vital to the industrial capacity of the US.

4. Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany develop unabated, and eventually control everything from Britain to Australia.

I think that the USSR might have had something to say about that. However, if the US is for some strange reason still an industrial cripple, then they can't help the USSR with Lend-Lease, so that would make a difference.

5. Slavery continues as an institution in the Confederacy, and ultimately the Confederacy finds that it has more in common with the Nazis than with their former countrymen to the north.

Many people think that in the south, slavery was already waning as a viable way of organizing society, but I suppose that a military victory might have given it a shot in the arm. I guess if we follow your chain of improbables this far, then we might as well have the south joining with the Axis powers and eventually defeating the north.