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Analysis Produces an Estimate on the Likelihood of Life in the Universe

Started by Recusant, May 22, 2020, 07:12:14 AM

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Recusant

I doubt we should put much weight on this, but I think it's pleasing to have perhaps the beginning of an idea on how common life is in the Universe.

"New study estimates the odds of life and intelligence emerging beyond our planet" | ScienceDaily

QuoteHumans have been wondering whether we alone in the universe since antiquity.

We know from the geological record that life started relatively quickly, as soon as our planet's environment was stable enough to support it. We also know that the first multicellular organism, which eventually produced today's technological civilization, took far longer to evolve, approximately 4 billion years.

But despite knowing when life first appeared on Earth, scientists still do not understand how life occurred, which has important implications for the likelihood of finding life elsewhere in the universe.

In a new paper published in the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences today [May 18], David Kipping, an assistant professor in Columbia's Department of Astronomy, shows how an analysis using a statistical technique called Bayesian inference could shed light on how complex extraterrestrial life might evolve in alien worlds.

"The rapid emergence of life and the late evolution of humanity, in the context of the timeline of evolution, are certainly suggestive," Kipping said. "But in this study it's possible to actually quantify what the facts tell us."

[. . .]

The analysis is based on evidence that life emerged within 300 million years of the formation of the Earth's oceans as found in carbon-13-depleted zircon deposits, a very fast start in the context of Earth's lifetime. Kipping emphasizes that the ratio is at least 9:1 or higher, depending on the true value of how often intelligence develops.

Kipping's conclusion is that if planets with similar conditions and evolutionary time lines to Earth are common, then the analysis suggests that life should have little problem spontaneously emerging on other planets. And what are the odds that these extraterrestrial lives could be complex, differentiated and intelligent? Here, Kipping's inquiry is less assured, finding just 3:2 odds in favor of intelligent life.

This result stems from humanity's relatively late appearance in Earth's habitable window, suggesting that its development was neither an easy nor ensured process. "If we played Earth's history again, the emergence of intelligence is actually somewhat unlikely," he said.

[Continues . . .]
"Religion is fundamentally opposed to everything I hold in veneration — courage, clear thinking, honesty, fairness, and above all, love of the truth."
— H. L. Mencken


No one

Common in cosmic terms is quite different than the human understanding of it.

Life is ferocious, if it can exist there, it will. It may take forms no human would ever recognize.

Tank

If religions were TV channels atheism is turning the TV off.
"Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt." ― Richard P. Feynman
'It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die. That is true, it's called Life.' - Terry Pratchett
Remember, your inability to grasp science is not a valid argument against it.